Long Term
December 7, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term, WST |
It’s been a while but I haven’t forgotten. Back on October 5 I named Intuit (INTU) my eighth pick in my Special Report: 10 Greatest “Savings Account Stocks. Which meant that I owned readers two more picks. Today’s pick of West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) is pick No.9. One more to go. (As with picks No. 7 MasterCard and No. 8 Intuit, I’m suggesting that you hold off on buying West Pharmaceutical until we see a bigger dip or what I now anticipate as the end of the current extreme volatility sometime around March 2022.)
November 9, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
As the Glasgow global climate conference whimpers to a close on November 12–another year of delay and inadequate action, but, hey, we’ve got plenty of time right–maybe even 8 or 9 years–two reports say that things are even worse than they seem.
August 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
With the recent retreat in the price of 10-year Treasuries and the rise in the yield on these long-term instruments (to a whopping 1.36% as of today, August 12) I think this is a decent time to start buying to build that bond ladder for your long-term bucket.
August 10, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term |
Back in 2018 the Federal Reserve started to run down its valance sheet out of concern that its asset pile had grown so large that the central bank was in danger of becoming the market for things like Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets. (For some of the dangers in that state see the Bank of Japan, which does “own” the market for government debt.) Over the next two years the Fed ran its assets down to $3.75 trillion from $4.4 trillion. If you haven’t been paying attention, you might have missed the steady increase in the Fed’s holdings to a whopping $8.2 trillion in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed assets.
August 5, 2021 | Daily JAM, EVGO, Long Term, Millennial, Volatility |
Today President Joe Biden unveiled a plan that would speed up the transition to electric vehicles in the United States. Included was an executive order (in this case a goal) calling for half of new passenger car sales to be of electric vehicles powered by batteries and fuel cells or plug-in electric hybrids by the end of the decade. And new proposed regulations from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Transportation Department on greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency for cars, SUVs and pickup trucks through model year 2026. The proposed regulations would reverse a Trump administration freeze on fuel-deficiency standards that was itself a reversal of the Obama administration regulations that would have ramped up average fuel economy to 54.5 miles per gallon by model year 2025.
July 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, DE, Long Term, Special Reports |
Long-term bucket pick #5: Deere (DE). Any stock that goes into a long-term bucket for a relatively conservative portfolio like this one, faces a tough test. You want the company to be tapped into some explosive long-term trend that will drive growth–but since this is a conservative portfolio you don’t want that trend to be totally or even mostly speculative.
July 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Special Reports |
The big arguments in the financial markets these days are about inflation–will it stay elevated at an annual rate of the better than 5% reported in May and June or will be fall to the 2.5% or so envisioned by the Federal Reserve–and interest rates–the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.21% on Monday, July 19 and some market strategists see 1% in the cards while others are looking for a 2.5% or even 4% at the peak of this cycle. I certainly won’t pretend the results of these arguments don’t matter. Inflation sentiment and interest rate projections are the two biggest drivers of stock and bond prices right now. (Well, maybe in the short term next to worries that a fourth wave in the pandemic will shut down the U.S. and global economies again.) But these arguments matter rather less than you might think to investors saving for retirement and those looking to generate some income from their portfolio either to fund retirement or some other predictable big ticket item (like monthly mortgage payments on a first or second (don’t I wish) home.) That’s because from that perspective the results of these arguments don’t change the portfolio cash flow picture very much
May 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, DE, Long Term, Millennial, SCCO |
Sure looks like a market struggling with rotations between growth and value stocks. One day the growth stocks sell off on fears of higher interest rates and rising inflation or something–and because after such a strong rally in the style growth stocks are very expensive. And that same day value stocks move higher because increasing economic growth is a very, very good thing for a style that depends on a strong economy for much of its revenue gains. The next day the market’s preference reverses and growth again outperforms value. What’s a poor investor to do? Especially the long-term investors with very long time horizons that are the focus for my new “Millennial Portfolio (for investors with more time than money.)” How about a few stocks that offer both growth and value? I’ve got two stocks today that I’m going to add to the Millennial Portfolio: Deere (DE) and Southern Copper (SCCO)
May 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Millennial, Special Reports |
If any investor wants to figure out what trends to invest in and when are the investing opportunities created by global climate change and efforts to limit the rise in our planet’s temporary, you need to look at every system of signs for clues. That means looking at the obvious, the political discourse as represented by the climate change plans of the Biden administration and the positions staked out by its opponents on the right and left. It means looking at the slightly less obvious, the advertising and public relations spending by companies trying escape the worst effects of the efforts to control climate change (oil companies, for example) and by companies trying to position themselves as champions of the fight to save the planet. And it means studying the much less obvious such as the climate change accounting principles I described in Part 1 of this Special Report to see which actions will be privileged and which penalized by the rules for keeping the books. From my own take on those systems, I’ve come up with a list of climate change trends that I think are worth investing in–and a calendar for when I think you ought to put your money into these trends. In Part 3 of this Special Report I’ll give you the names of 10 stocks that I’d look to use to ride these trends. Today’s segment, though, is devoted to laying out a sense of when to put your money into specific phases of the overall global climate change trend. I’ve divided this “calendar” into three parts.
April 13, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
AI stocks–actually any stock with a passing acquaintance to artificial intelligence technologies–stood out on the upside today, April 13, in a generally ho-hum market The Standard & Poor’s 500, let me remind you, rose just 0.33% on the day. But AI stocks–by the most generous definition–scorched higher.,
April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Long Term, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Nvidia (NVDA) announced its first microprocessor for the server market today, April 12. Right now Intel (INTC) owns around 90% of the market for server processors. And the company also reported that first-quarter revenue “is tracking” above its previous forecast. Revenue in the quarter ending in April is now expected to be higher than $5.3 the billion, which Nvidia projected on February 24. Nvidia shares were up 5.62% today on the news
April 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Long Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Based on existing analyst forecasts for earnings in all of 2021, the S&P 500 trades at almost 24 times estimates, among its highest valuations ever. To bring the multiple down to its long-term average of 16 times annual profits, companies in the gauge will have to make about 15% more than the equity researchers currently expect them to earn — in 2023.
