Long Term
Wall Street starts to watch something called the market price/liquidity ratio to justify this rally
The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index may be closing in on the February 19 record closing high of 3386.15--about 11.2% from the Friday, May 29, close at 3044.31, but some Wall Street strategists see more rally ahead--with a close at the end of 2020 near 3,500 as a...
Deflation or a spike in inflation in 2020-21: A tale of two fatter-than-expected tails
The financial market consensus on inflation is pretty obvious: For 2020 and 2021, the U.S. economy will see modest inflation, maybe 1.5% to 1.75%. That would be significantly below the Federal Reserve's inflation goal of 2% or so. And that gap would keep the Fed...
Are we headed into an era of longterm deflation? Will the Fed say it’s worried about deflation after tomorrow’s meeting?
As long as I can remember (which is only back about 40 years when it comes to the economy) the worry has been inflation. From the stagflation of the late 1970s, to Paul Volcker's brutal but successful assault on inflation in the early 1980s, to the seemingly endless...
Intel also suspends its stock buyback problem–remember to put that into your calculations for where the market goes after the corona bear
Intel (INTC) said Tuesday that it would suspend its share buyback program. In October 2019 the company said it would buy $20 billion in shares over the next 15 to 18 months. The company completed $7.6 billion in buybacks in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first...
The challenge for the next ten years: Mediocre projected investing returns for a decade
Pickings look rather slim for investors over the next decade, according to the results of Morningstar's annual survey of financial market forecasts. Certainly much slimmer than the extremely strong returns for U.S. stocks for the last decade. During that period the...
The first of four not so easy pieces for rebalancing any portfolio but specifically my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
In an ideal world, every stock market trend--up, down, sideways--would begin on January 1 and end on December 31. That would make an annual rebalancing of any portfolio as easy as falling off a madly spinning log in a Canadian logging festival. Most market trends...
China’s economy is showing big strains–that a trade deal with the United States won’t fix
Hengfeng Bank has announced that it will sell 100 billion shares in a private placement to raise cash. This is the third Chinese commercial lender to receive government assistance since May. Investors in the deal will include Central Huijin Investment (60 billion...
Coming Wednesday–Rebalancing (finally) for the long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
With my thoughts on why rebalancing has been so difficult in the market of the last 12 months. To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one...
Special Report: It is different this time–an intelligent investor’s guide to the next 5 years of Tough Decisions. Part 1 The Fundamentals
This past week, on Tuesday and Wednesday, September 17 and 18, the Federal Reserve injected $128 billion into the short-term money market in an effort to control a liquidity crunch that threatens the Fed's ability to set short-term interest rates. On Thursday, it put...
A deep dive into Exxon Mobil financials shows where even the big oil majors are vulnerable
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
Correction: I’m adding DuPont, my #3 Value Pick, to my 50 Stocks (not Dividend) Portfolio
Correction as of July 8. Dupont added to 50 Stocks rather than Dividend Portfolio I'd be willing to be dollars to donuts that U.S. stocks won't repeat their first half performance--up 17.4% on the Standard & Poor's 500--in the second half of the year. It's hard...Jim’s Stock Alerts
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