Buying more Tencent ADRs for my portfolios
On Monday, March 24, I’m adding these Tencent ADRs (TCEHY) TO my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios.
Mid Term
More bad news on consumer confidence and inflation expectations
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Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Apple
Today’s Quick Pick is Apple (AAPL). This is a short term buy or, if you own it, a “get ready to sell.” Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference happens in early May, and the stock usually gets a bounce from new product and technology announcements. This year we’re likely to hear more on AI. Apple’s stock hasn’t performed all that well lately, and I don’t want to hold the stock after the expected pop from the conference and new product releases in the fall. I worry about the long term choices the company is making. Apple has decided not to offer a low-price, affordable introductory iPhone as a gateway to their suite of products. They’ve effectively ceded the lower end of the market to other players–especially in China. They’ve also just announced that the AI add-ons to Siri they promised have been delayed and it’s unclear when they’ll be available. Apple is lagging in AI as other companies race ahead. We can expect disappointing sales in December–particularly out of China. I don’t want to hold on to the stock at the end of the year and I’m looking to sell on a bounce after the conference and new product launches in September.
It’s not the R word that has stocks plunging–it’s that S word
We haven’t had a really severe bout of stagflation since the late 1970s and early 1980s–but suddenly that scenario of very slow growth with high unemployment but with high inflation too that prevents the Federal Reserve from just cutting interest rates get growth back on track is back on Wall Street’s worry list.
And really serious stagflation would be something to worry about. In 1980–just before the Federal Reserve created a deep recession and bear market to break the back of stagflation–inflation hit almost 14.5 and unemployment reached 7.5%
Apple delays Siri AI, falls further behind in AI market
Apple (AAPL) has confirmed that it’s delaying the release of a new AI Siri digital assistant. The company now expects to roll out the software sometime “in the coming year.” The effort will give Siri “more awareness of your personal context, as well as the ability to take action for you within and across your apps,” the iPhone maker said in a statement. “It’s going to take us longer than we thought to deliver on these features.” Apple’s struggles to finish the new AI capability for Siri has been a one secret for the last month or so after Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reported on the delay. The Siri AI features were first touted in June 2024 at the company’s Worldwide Developers Conference. When Apple announced the features at WWDC, it didn’t provide an arrival date for the Siri upgrade, Gurman reported. Within the company, though, the plan was to include the new technology in iOS 18.4, which comes out in April.
Economic models on Wall Street say odds of a recession are rising
The odds of a U.S. recession are still low, but an increasing number of Wall Street economic models say the odds are climbing.
Trump clarifies tariff dates, but the market is still betting on another delay
After sowing confusion with remarks at Wednesday’s cabinet meeting that seemed to postpone new, higher tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China to April, today President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico are on track to go into place on March 4, and said he would impose an additional 10% tax on Chinese imports.
More bad news in another consumer sentiment survey
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence fell this month by the most since August 2021. The Conference Board’s index fell 7 points in February to 98.3, marking the third straight decline, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A measure of expectations for the next six months also fell by the most in three-and-a-half years, while a gauge of present conditions declined more modestly.
What does $1 million buy Big Tech from the Trump Administration?
I advise investors not to think for a moment that the regulatory issues that faced Big Tech under the Biden Administration have al gone away. President Trumps key picks for the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) show there are still big bumps in the road ahead.
More oil and lower oil prices into 2026
Global oil markets will face a widening glut in 2026 as OPEC brings back production and output from the United States, Canada and Guyana continues to grow, the U.S. Energy Information Agency said today, Tuesday, January 14. Today’s forecast was the agency’s first for 2026. World oil markets are expected to average a surplus of 800,000 barrels a day in 2026, the Energy Information Administration. That’s more than twice as large as the 300,000 barrel a day surplus the agency projects for 2025.
The BIG QUESTION: Does the selling in the stock market go farther? I think yes–and here’s what to do
Enough downside still ahead so that it makes sense to sell some of your portfolio, take some profits, and raise cash on the prospect of a buying opportunity or two ahead? In my opinion, Yes.
China’s deflation problem got worse in December
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
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