Morning Briefing
February 11, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. Treasury Department cut the size of some benchmark bill auctions, as the government tries to stay below the legal limit of its borrowing authority under the debt ceiling. Treasury said it plans to sell $90 billion of four-week bills Thursday, $5 billion smaller than the previous offering of the maturity. It also announced $85 billion of eight-week bills to be sold Thursday, which is also $5 billion smaller. The regular 17-week bill to be sold Wednesday was lowered to $62 billion, a $2 billion reduction. Those are the first reductions for the four- and eight-week offerings since December 26, and the first ever cut to the 17-week issue.
February 10, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Sunday, President Donald Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminum. Trump said the tariffs would apply to shipments from all countries, including major suppliers Mexico and Canada. No word yet on Monday as of 11 a.m. New York time on when the duties would take effect.
February 7, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, a slower but solid pace that was a tick below economist forecasts. The unemployment rate dipped to 4%. The labor market slowed compared to December. That December report was revised Friday to show 307,000 jobs gained that month. Average hourly wage growth accelerated, rising by 4.1% rate over the past 12 months. That wage gain was above the rate of inflation.
February 6, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
On Wednesdatmay, February 5, newly minted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s focus with regard to bringing down borrowing costs is 10-year Treasury yields, rather than the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate.
February 4, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Now that Canada and Mexico have earned a one-month delay in the 25% tariffs President Donald Trump had proposed to implement today, Tuesday, February 4, Wall Street is struggling to figure out if a similar deal with China will roll back the 10% hike in tariffs on imports from China that went into effect today. So far, Wall Street is betting on another deal to keep the global economy out of a full-scale trade war. Today the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.72% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 1.35%. I can understand the optimism. I just don’t agree with it.
February 3, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Futures markets are substantially lower as U.S. stocks get ready to open. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 were down 1.64% and NASDAQ futures were off 1.87%. But I still say that Wall Street is in denial about the full economic damage from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
February 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
I expect a two-ring (at least) circus on Capitol Hill as Congress confronts two years worth of budgets. By law, the President is required to submit a budget for the next fiscal year–in this case the 2026 fiscal year that begins on October 1 2025–by the first Monday in February. Yes, tomorrow, February 3. Maybe you remember, however, that Congress hasn’t passed a budget for fiscal 2025–the fiscal year that began on October 1, 2024. And that the government is operating under a continuing resolution (a CR) that expires on March 14.
January 31, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Today’s release of the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, wasn’t good news for investors hoping that the central bank will quickly resume interest rate cuts. The PCE climbed 2.6% in December from a year earlier, faster than its 2.4% annual rate in November and above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Compared to the previous month, prices were up 0.3%.
January 29, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously today to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged in a range of 4.25%-4.5%, after lowering rates by a full percentage point in the final months of 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials are not in a rush to lower interest rates, adding the central bank is pausing to see further progress on inflation following a string of rate reductions last year.
January 28, 2025 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
We won’t get another update on the probable trajectory of Federal Reserve interest rate policy until the central bank updates its Dot Plot projections at its March 19 meeting. But meanwhile, we have a survey from CNBC that shows a majority of respondents–and this is a small sample of hust 25–still believe we’ll get two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025. But that faith in that two-cut scenario is fading.
January 27, 2025 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Morning Briefing, QCOM |
News that DeepSeek a China AI startup had developed an open-source AI model that matched the performance of U.S. AI models from OpenAI, Alphabet, and Meta platforms at a fraction of the cost sent AI stocks reeling today, Monday, January 27. Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 17%. Broadcom (AVGO) similarly fell 17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps slid 3.2%. The Russell 2000 slipped 1.3%. Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—-the VIX—soared 20% the most since mid-December to almost 18.The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 4.53%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%. Bitcoin fell 3.9%. Here’s what freaked out the markets today.
January 26, 2025 | AAPL, BA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, MSFT, T, Top 50 Stocks, XOM |
This week its earnings, earnings, and earnings. From the tech giants and more. This week, we’ll discover three things. First, are tech company earnings as good as the market clearly expects. I think that with the exception of Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) the answer will be Yes. Second, how much of this good news is already priced into the recent rally. These stocks could retreat even on news that’s as good as expected. An advance will, I think, require a surprise or two. And, third, how worried is Wall Street really, given the recent boom in all things AI, about capital spending at the big AI companies and falling profit margins.
