The federal budget deficit swelled to $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September, the Congressional Budget Office warned today, Tuesday, October 8. In the recently concluded fiscal 2024 year interest payments on the debt reached $950 billion, larger than the size of the Pentagon budget. As of Friday, the United States had accumulated a public debt of $35.7 trillion.
It’s not surprising that stocks fell Monday, October 7. But it is surprising that they fell so little. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 0.96% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 1.18%. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge–the VIX–jumped to “just” a two-month high. Look at the negatives arrayed against stocks
It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second large 50 basis point interest rate cut at its November 7 meeting to pricing in doubts that the central bank will deliver even a 25 basis point cut.
The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, the most in six months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and hourly earnings increased 4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strong data is reassuring investors worried that the Federal Reserve had moved too slowly to cut interest rates and that the economy was headed toward a slump.
Total assets under management in U.S. money-market funds rose by $38.7 billion in the week week ended October 2, according to the latest Investment Company Institute data released on Thursday. The increase puts total assets at a record $6.46 trillion, and caps the biggest quarter of inflows since the March 2023 banking crisis. The old record was set when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders sent a flood of cash into money-market funds as the Federal Reserve raised rates. What’s odd now is that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and the financial system doesn’t seem particularly stressed.
What’s amazing to me right now is how complacent Wall Street is about the prospects for a wider regional war in the Middle East. Which could include an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.On a day when Israel vowed to retaliate against a barrage from Iran that rained down missiles on Israel’s Iron Dome defense, West Texas Intermediate oil rose by just 0.39% to $70.10 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was ahead just 1.43% to 74.61.
We’re looking at a huge week of economic data that will support or disturb the current coin-flip odds of a 25-basis-point/50-basis-point cut when the Federal Reserve meets on November 7. Let’s start with the week’s Big Guy, the September jobs numbers due on Friday.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose at a slower pace than expected on a monthly basis in August. The core PCE, which strips out the cost of food and energy, rose 0.1% from the prior month during August, below Wall Street’s expectations for 0.2% and the 0.2% reading seen in July.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate of second quarter US gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged from the second estimate which had shown 3% annualized growth. Economists had estimated the reading to show annualized growth of 2.9%. Add in a separate report on initial claims for unemployment the Labor Department that showed 218,000 new claims for unemployment were filed in the week ending September 21–Wall Street had been expecting 223,000 new claims for the week–and the data clearly show that the economy is, as Fed chair Jerome Powell said last week when the Fed cut interest rates, in good shape.
Goldman Sachs’ consumer bank, Marcus, has reduced the rate on its high-yield savings account following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in more than four years.
Marcus flagship offering now has a 4.25% annual percentage yield, down from 4.4%. I think this is just the canary in a coal mine for yield on income products.
There was a whiff of panic to the big moves by the People’s Bank today.China’s central bank cut a key short-term interest rate and announced plans to reduce the reserve ratio, the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, to the lowest level since at least 2018. This marked the first time reductions to both measures were revealed on the same day since at least 2015. And that wasn’t all.
I understand why no one wants to get off the rally bus. Last week’s gains pushed the Standard & Poor’s 500’s total return for 2024 above 20% again. The index jumped 1.7% on Thursday, putting in its 39th record close of the year. Both stocks and Treasuries are headed for a fifth straight month of gains. But anyone expecting the S&P 500 to build on its year-to-date gain should consider that Wall Street’s own strategists already see the upside exhausted.
