April 30, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Tariffs could mean some empty shelves in U.S. as early as May
President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods from China have disrupted trans-Pacific supply chains. In the three weeks since the tariffs took effect, ocean-container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by more than 60%, Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of Flexport, a global shipping company, told the Washington Post. Cargo carriers that bring Asian goods to the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s main Pacific gateway, have canceled 20 port calls next month, more than three times as many as last month, according to port data. The consequence will be “empty shelves in U.S. stores in a few weeks and covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Torsten Slok, chief economist for Apollo Global Management, told the Post. “Significant” layoffs in trucking, logistics and retail are likely as soon as May, Slok said.
China denies trade talks with Trump
President Donald Trump said his administration is talking with China on trade. This came after Beijing denied the existence of negotiations on a deal and demanded the United States revoke all unilateral tariffs. “They had a meeting this morning,” Trump said Thursday during a meeting with Norway’s prime minister when a reporter asked about the Chinese statement. Pressed on which administration officials were involved in discussions, President Trump said, “it doesn’t matter who ‘they’ is. We may reveal it later, but they had meetings this morning, and we’ve been meeting with China.” Not so, Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong said Thursday.
Unilever and Nestle results say more pain is coming to a shopping cart near you
Unilever (UL) and Nestle (NSRGY) both posted better-than-expected sales in the first quarter. Because they were able to push prices higher to counter surging commodity costs.
That’s not good news for consumers or food-price inflation. Both companies said customers will have to take some of the pain as a global trade war and surging commodity prices lift their costs again.
Read the fine print on yesterday’s tariff “news”
Yesterday stocks rallied for a second day on “news” that President Donald Trump was considering plans to cut tariffs on China’s goods. The Wall Street Journal reported that under the proposals, the range could come down to between 50% to 65%–from the current 145%–as a result of a tiered approach that would see 35% levies on items not considered critical for national security and 100% on “national security” goods.“We’re going to have a fair deal with China,” President Trump told reporters on Wednesday. On Tuesday President Trump had said he’d be willing to “substantially” pare back his 145% tariffs on China. He turned down his aggressive rhetoric a day after meeting with executives from Walmart, Home Depot. and Target, who said import taxes could disrupt supply chains and raise the prices of goods., according to people familiar with the matter. I understand why stocks rallied on these reports. Investors and CEOs are all scared that these tariffs will reignite inflation and send the economy toward recession. The rally on these reports is a sign of how deeply worried financial markets are at this posibility. And how much markets want to believe in a change of course. But because of the intensity of that hope Wall Street and, especially, retail investors, are overlooking the “fine print” in these announcements.
Your grin of the day: Dinosaur meat is coming to a market near you
Cultivated dinosaur meat hits the market in food tech first
Market direction may be uncertain but volatility trend is clear: UP
Despite the rally on Tuesday and Wednesday, the S&P 500 Index is still down around 4% since April 2, the day President Donald Trump announced his tariff plans. Where do stocks go from here in the short term? Depends on the headlines on tariffs and the Federal Reserve, I’d say But the trend in volatility is clear. Stocks are swinging wildly day to day. Since April 2, the Standard & Poor’s 500 has posted five declines of more than 2% and two gains of more than 2% in just 14 sessions.
Special Report: 10 stock picks for the 3 hottest sectors in 2025–and when to buy them: Part 1 AI
In 2025 you will want your portfolio fully weighted toward AI, ENERGY, and WEIGHT-LOSS DRUG stocks.
Not just any stock in those sectors, of course. All three sectors will be full of surprises and they won’t play out the way the conventional wisdom now believes. Some stocks in these sectors will do just okay as a rising tide lifts all boats. But some stocks will be GREAT. These winners could be the foundation for another great year for your portfolio. In fact, I expect that 2025 will be a tough year for an investor to make money even if stocks do finish higher. That’s because the year will be filled with more than the usual twists and turns designed make you sell on fear just when you should be holding on or even buying more. And don’t think that the year won’t include more than one of those moments rallies designed to suck you in at the top because–well, because you fear missing out. Yes, FOMO, fear of missing out will be alive and well in 2025. To do well in 2025, you’ll have to not only pick the hot trends, but also understand when that trend is about to zig zag and which stocks you’ll want to ride through all the noise and chaos. Giving you what you need for profits in 2025vis what this Special Report: 10 stock picks for the hottest sectors of 2025 is all about.And there’s no better sector to demonstrate the challenges of 2025 than Artificial Intelligence, the first of my hottest sectors for 2025. (The next two hot trends, energy and weight-loss drugs will follow in the next few days.)
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Still to come? Drug tariffs
President Donald Trump has pledged tariffs on drugs exported to the United States. Besides the threat to supply chains that could disrupt the supply of drugs to U.S. consumers, the potential tariffs threaten a clash between drugmakers and insurers over who will pay the higher prices.
What’s it all mean? My thoughts on the meaning of today’s tariff chaos for investors
We started off the day with the stock and bond markets headed for another retreat on news that the European Union and China were both slapping higher tariffs on U.S. exports and the United States was raising tariffs on China to 125% We ended the day with a 10%–or better–rally as President Donald Trump paused last week’s Liberation Day tariffs for 90 days–and replaced them with a 10% across the board rate–for everyone but China.The 125% tariff rate for China would remain intact. So what’s it all mean? It’s too early for definitive conclusions but here are my initial thoughts.
Treasury auction today better than expected
Today’s U.S. Treasury auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes went better than expected despite recent volatility in the bond market. That lessened my worry about a potential tightening of liquidity in the critical Treasury market.
Please watch my new YouTube video: No Powell Put…Yet
Today’s Video: No Powell Put…Yet. The market is betting on the Fed riding to the rescue with rate cuts, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon. The Fed’s job is controlling inflation and employment—not propping up stocks. Even with recent market jitters, the economy still looks too strong for the Fed to panic. Jobs numbers are holding up, and we haven’t even felt the full drag from tariffs or the potential stimulus of looming Trump tax cuts. The Fed won’t move until the data screams weakness—and right now, it’s just whispering. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in three cuts this year, with some even hoping for an emergency cut before May. That’s wishful thinking. The Fed knows premature easing could backfire, especially with tariffs threatening inflation. Technically, the S&P 500 could drop another 5% to 10% before hitting key support levels. Bottom line: Don’t get suckered by bear market rallies. The Fed isn’t bailing anyone out yet, and betting otherwise is a dangerous game.
President Trump pauses all tariffs for 90 days–except for those on China
Just in case you were getting bored with the lack of volatility in today’s market: On Wednesday afternoon, President Donald Trump announced he would raise the tariff charged on Chinese exports to the United States to 125%, effective immediately. And that he would pause for 90 days most of the tariffs he announced just last Wednesday on Liberation Day and instead implement a 10% global tariff. Here’s what President Trump wrote on social media
China retaliates with 50% tariff on U.S. goods, bringing total to 84%
Two and half hours before the opening of the U.S. stock markets Wednesday morning, China announced its response to President Donald Trump’s hike of tariffs on all Chinese imports. China imposed a 50% retaliatory tariff on all U.S. goods, bringing the total counter-tariff to 84%.
Safe haven no more–U.S. Treasuries sell off
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is up 13 basis points to 4.43% as of noon New York time today as bond prices fell on strong selling. That’s extraordinary–usually Treasuries rise in price and yields fall when fear stalks Wall Street–and cause for worry. Just a few days ago, the 10-year Treasury had traded below 4%. Yields on the 30-year bond rose significantly today as well, at one point on Wednesday topping 5%.
“The global safe-haven status is in question,” Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg.
Europe imposes 25% tariff–but the big one is still to come
The European Union retaliated to President Donald Trump’s steel tariffs Wednesday, April 9, with tariffs of up to 25% on a broad list of U.S. products. This is old news, however-a belated response to tariffs President Trump imposed on EU exports of steel and aluminum last month. Still to come is another round of retaliatory tariffs in response to the 20% tariff imposed by Trump last week on all EU exports to the United States.
Another sign of consumer stress: a rise in 401(k) hardship withdrawals
More Americans than average are turning to their retirement accounts for emergency cash, according to Empower. Hardship withdrawals from 401(k)s are running about 15% to 20% above the historical norm
You can kiss today’s rally effort good-bye
So much for this morning’s rally. And so much for an end to the selling. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 1.57% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day off 2.15%. The small cap Russell 2000 was lower by 2.73%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, the VIX “fear index,” closed up 11.09% to a very high 52.20.
Glad that Bear market is over–based on nothing stocks rally
Stocks saw their biggest rally since November 2022. As of 10:30 a.m. New York time Tuesday morning, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 3.80%. The NASDAQ Composite was higher by 4.32%. The CBOE S&P 500 Volatile Index, the VIX “fear index” had dropped 19.6% to a still very elevated 37.6. So what has fueled today’s rally and the turn around from last week’s panic selling?
Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves Now–The Volatility of the VIX
Today’s Hot Money Move is The Volatility of the VIX. I’ve been playing the VIX (the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index) as a hedge against market fear, and right now, it’s showing a clear pattern tied to tariff anxiety. Back in January, I bought VIX options when the index was sitting between 14 and 16—near its long-term average of 15 to 17—with strike prices at 20 to 25. Lately, these options have been swinging hard, jumping 30–40% in value before pulling back and then rallying again. The reason? Investors panic ahead of tariff announcements, driving the VIX up as they hedge. But here’s the pattern: once the tariffs are actually announced, the VIX drops as relief sets in. For active traders, this is a short-term play—buy into the fear, sell into the relief. Just remember: these patterns hold until they don’t, so keep a close eye on it if you’re going to make these plays.
President threatens new 50% tariff on China on Wednesday
Today, April 7, President Donald Trump threatened additional 50% tariffs on China if it did not rescind its retaliatory trade measures–a 34% tariff, restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and other measures, designed to match the 34% tariff President Trump announced on Chinese good last week
In a post on Truth Social Trump said the U.S. would impose even higher tariffs on China if Beijing did not back down. “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” the president posted on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!”
Futures markets signal nasty Monday open
The futures contracts for the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index each fell as much as 5% in the early Asian trading. U.S. equity futures plunged, putting the Standard & Poor’s 500 on track for a bear market as the Trump administration dug in on a trade war economists warn will tip the world’s largest economy into recession. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index plunged 3.6% at 6:27 p.m. Sunday in New York, after the underlying index had fallen 10% in the past two days. The rout in futures would leave the index on a pace to fall more than 20% from its February record. Nasdaq 100 Index futures sank 4.4%, after the tech-heavy gauge entered a bear market Friday. Russell 2000 futures lost almost 5%. A big reason for the rout in futures was the failure of the Trump officials speaking on the Sunday talk shows to say anything to demonstrate any re-thinking of the tariffs after the financial markets said, “Hell no” on Thursday and Friday.
Last week’s negative sentiment continues into currency, futures trading markets today
Last week’s negative sentiment continues into currency, futures trading market today, Sunday
Saturday Night Quarter says, For the week ahead expect…
more, much more tariff turmoil. The net direction is unclear to me. It depends on which of the possible events this week happen–and what the details are.
Here are the tariff turmoil events that I’m watching in the upcoming week.
Watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick Tencent
Today’s Quick Pick is Tencent Holdings ADR (TCEHY). Tencent is the world’s biggest computer gaming company and operator of China’s biggest chat platform. I’ve had them in my long term portfolio for a while, but the reason I’m suggesting this stock now is the AI boom happening in China. China is able to build AI models more economically than U.S. AI companies models and Tencent is a big player in the space. Last I checked, they were about 20% undervalued according to Morningstar. If you’re looking for stocks that will move independently from the U.S. market, China’s internet and AI sector is a good place to be.
NASDAQ enters a Bear market; S&P 500 gets close
The NASDAQ Composite closed at 15588 today. That’s a 22.7% drop from record close of 20,173.89 points on December 16, 2024. That puts the index officially in Bear market territory.
March jobs report stronger than expected; Wall Strretwonders if this is the last good report
The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported on Friday. That was more than expected and above the revised 117,000 in February. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, from 4.1%, as a result of an increase in the rate of labor force participation. Wage growth, up 3.8% for private-sector workers in the month, beat inflation, which was 2.8% in February. That was down from 4% growth in February. For middle- and lower-wage workers, the growth in wages was 3.9%, also a tick down from February, but still well ahead of inflation.
China matches Trump tariffs, adds new export controls on rare earth minerals
That didn’t take long. On Wednesday President Donald Trump announced new 34% tariffs on China’s exports to the United States. Today, Friday, China matched those tariffs with a 34% rate on U.S. exports to China. And slapped new controls on exports of rare earth minerals critical to everything from electric cars to wind turbines. The new tariffs from China will go into effect on April 10, a day after the higher U.S. tariff schedule is scheduled to take effect.
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