August 9, 2022 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
First, it was Nvidia (NVDA) cutting its guidance for revenue and earnings due on August 24. Today, August 9, it was Micron Technology (MU) warning that its revenue for the fourth-quarter revenue may come in at or below the bottom end of a forecast range provided in the company’s earnings call on June 30. Micron is scheduled to report on September 27. All this comes as the market is on edge anyway ahead of tomorrow’s report on CPI inflation. As of the close on Tuesday, August 9, shares of Micro Technology were down 3.74%. Shares of Nvidia were down another 3.97% after closing down 6.30% yesterday.
March 8, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Right now investors and traders are getting a crash course in how vulnerable global supply chains are to disruption–especially when they become really extended. And how a supply chain disruption can ripple out in unexpected directions thanks to the complexity of many key products.
First, the Pandemic took a hammer to the complicated logistical systems required to get Commodity A to Sub-assembler B in order to make Consumer good C that would show up for sale around the world. Just in time inventory, it turned out, didn’t work very well when nothing arrived on time. Second, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has–or at least it should have–reminded us that global supply chains can resemble Whack-A-Mole.
July 18, 2021 | AMD, Daily JAM, IFNNY, Jubak Picks, NVDA, NXPI, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
On Thursday, July 15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the world’s leading chip foundry, reported earnings of 93 cents a share for the second quarter, up 18% year over year. That was inline with analyst estimates. Sales rose 28%. The company raised its revenue guidance for the third quarter to a range of $14.6 billion to $14.9 billion. The midpoint of that range, $14.75 billion, was above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $14.57 billion. Sales in the third quarter of 2020 are $12.4 billion.Taiwan Semiconductor said that it now expects sales to grow more than 20% this year, an increase from the 20% target announced earlier in the year. For 2020-2025, the company raised its revenue forecast to a compound annual growth rate of 15% from a previous target of 10% to 15%. But the stock dropped 5.5% on July 15 and fell another 1.52% on Friday, July 16. Why?
May 17, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, IFNNY, Jubak Picks, NVDA, NXPI, PYPL, RUN, SEDG, Top 50 Stocks |
Last week’s sell off and rally, which left the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 1.4% for the week, resulted in farther dips in many of the Dip-O-Meter stocks. The picture that emerges is much more complicated than simple advice to “Buy on this dip.”
May 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-third YouTube video “Five Stocks for an Inflation Scare” went up today.
March 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
In my Trick or Trend post on Saturday, March 27, I argued that the increasingly serious chip shortage experienced by car makers was bad for car stocks (since car companies are having to cut production), but good for chip makers who concentrate in the auto sector (since they are seeing rising demand and increasing pricing power) and even better for chip equipment makers (since they were already on a roll to meet higher demand for equipment to expand chip production and are now very likely to see that extra demand for chip equipment run higher and longer.)I already own shares of two chip makers that are seeing rising demand and increasing pricing power: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and Infineon Technologies (IFNNY). I own NXP in my Volatility Portfolio–up 97.16% since June 2, 2020. I own Infineon in my Jubak Picks Portfolio–up 81.38% since May 6, 2019. And I also own shares of chip equipment maker Applied Materials in my Jubak Picks and 50 Stocks portfolios. Applied Materials has been a member of my Jubak Picks Portfolio since January 14, 2021 (for a gain of 21.59% as of the close on March 26) and of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio since December 31, 2017 (for a gain of 151.64%.) Today, Monday March 29, I’m adding shares of ASML (ASML), the leading producer of lithography equipment to draw circuits onto chips. That stock gained 7.14% on Friday and is now up 28.28% for 2021 to date.
March 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, IFNNY, NXPI |
Today I’m adding a second 10 stocks–to the 10 already listed–to the Dip-O-Meter. I’m tracking all 20 looking for buy on the dip opportunities. My take after today’s (March 23) action is not quite yet
February 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Yesterday tech tumbled but utilities, commodities like copper and even gold, and many “vaccine recovery” plays gained. Today almost everything is down.
Which to me is a sign that this now 6-day downturn is getting closer to an end. Right now, as of 1:30 a.m. in New York the NASDAQ is off another 2.32%. The brings the drop from the mid-february high to 6%. A little more than half way to a 10% correction. I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I am looking for growth stories–which is not the same as “momentum growth stocks”–where the selling has created an opportunity.
February 19, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
At the close today the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.19%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended dead even. The NASDAQ Composite “soared” 0.07%. It wasn’t until you looked at the Russell 2000 small cap index that you saw any signs of what a wild day it was. That index, so economically sensitive these days, finished ahead 2.04%. Don’t look to the usual suspects if you’re seeking big winners today.
January 14, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
As I noted in my January 13 video “4 picks for the chip shortage,” investors are looking at shortage of silicon chips that has hit the auto industry especially hard and that argues for a multi-year increase in capital spending to expand chip production at foundry companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). As the world’s largest supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, Applied Materials will see its revenue climb as a result of that capital spending. The company’s equipment can be found at almost every major step in cap manufacturing (with the exception of lithography) from chemical and physical vapor deposition to etching to defect-inspection scanning electron microscopes. The stock is up 60.04% in the last year, as of the close on January 13 with most of that gain coming in the last 3 months where the stock is up 51.9%. The shares are already a pick in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio where they’re up 91.8% from December 31, 2017. Today, I’m adding Applied Materials to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
January 13, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The sixth YouTube video “4 stock picks for the chip shortage” went up today.
January 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Videos |
The fifth YouTube video on why this very stretched market will hang in for another six months went up today.
