September 13, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Back on September 4 I posted a video on YouTube and this site “September and October 2021 Worse Than Usual for Investors?” that argued that September, the worst performing month for the Standard & Poor’s 500 from 1950 through 2020, and October, historically the home of the biggest one-day or one-week stock market crashes, stood a good change of being even worse than usual this year. I cited factors such as the Fed’s September 22 monetary policy meeting, a potential stalemate over the raising the debt ceiling, and economic uncertainty created by the Delta Variant (see last weeks weak jobs report as evidence on that front) as reasons for thinking that we could see a repeat of the historical weakness and volatility this September and October–but with a bit of supercharging. I don’t want to revisit all the reasons I gave in that video–Hey, just watch it, ya know?–but let me add a couple of points that I didn’t mention in the video. Like the effects of the continued shortage of chips on car manufacturers and hence car sales. Like the run-off in federal Pandemic economic help that’s now scheduled for this fall. Like signs of weakness in consumer sentiment and business confidence. Instead of more on “the problem” lets talk about potential solutions- the “what should I do stuff.”
March 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, INCY, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Shares of biotech stock Incyte (INCY) have been down significantly in 2021. For the year to date, as of the close on March 2, the shares were down 8.45%. In the last month they’ve tumbled 12.42%. So what’s wrong? Pretty much nothing. With the individual stock anyway. What we’re watching is a lot of selling in the biotech sector as part of the recent sell-off on risk. And on substantial profit taking.
February 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
As of 3:15 p.m. today, February 2, in New York, shares of GameStop (GME)were down 56.22% to $98.50. That a big drop from the January 27 closing high of $347.51, but it’s still significantly above the $17.25 price on January 4. Other stocks that have ridden the Reddit WallStreetBets fever for short squeeze horses are down today too. AMC (AMC) is off 39.70% to $8.02. First Majestic Silver (AG), the big silver play of the last few days, has given up 24.28% to $16.75. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is off 14.64% to $25.77. American Airlines (AAL), an early short squeeze play, slipped 1.16% to $17.65. The only potential short squeeze bet (if it was, that is) that’s still climbing is vaccine pill biotech Vaxart (VXRT), which was up 34.30% at 3:15 and looks to be riding momentum into the close. (The shares were up 54.43% as of 3:40 p.m.) Vaxart does bring this question to mind: So if the money is coming out of GameStop, etc., where is it going?
January 10, 2021 | Daily JAM |
The big JPMorgan Chase healthcare conference that began today, January 10, and that runs for the rest of this week, will keep biotech stock prices moving up even as valuations in the sector look increasingly stretched.
June 26, 2020 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
My fourth pick in my Special Report "10 Stocks to Beat Amazon" is a biotech, Seattle Genetics (SGEN). Biotech companies spend years developing their first successful drug. And then spend more years turning that first drug into a pipeline of drugs and expanded labels....
June 22, 2020 | Daily JAM, INCY, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
I admit it. I feel silly talking about price targets and valuations in this market. After all everything is just going to the sky. Infinity and Beyond!!! But, as silly as I may feel, I don't think the gods of investing have repealed the laws of valuation. At some...
May 24, 2019 | Daily JAM, INCY, Stock Alerts |
Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolio member Incyte (INCY) closed up 1.55% today to $81.75 on news that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had approved the company's Jakafi for treatment for acute Graft versus Host disease (GvHD), an inflammatory response by the...
April 10, 2019 | Daily JAM, INCY, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
There's a good chance that Incyte (INCY) will miss Wall Street earnings and revenue projections when it reports first quarter results on April 30. That's because Incyte is a biotech adolescent. Think awkward. The company is old enough to have substantial revenue from...
April 1, 2019 | Daily JAM, Special Reports |
My thesis--the one I argued in my Special Report: 10 dangerous stocks for this earnings season--is that the earnings season for the first quarter that begins on April 12 with reports from the Big Banks is likely to be especially volatile. And stock that misses analyst...
March 26, 2019 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Special Reports |
That famous futures trader Marc Antony famously said "Beware the Ides of April." Okay, the guy had a mixed performance record. Short Brutus but long Cleopatra. But his advice about April 2019 is good. The Ides of April fall on the 13th of the month. And what promises...
January 24, 2019 | Daily JAM, INCY, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
The Biotech sector is a prototypical risk on/risk off asset class. Just look at the performance of Incyte if you'd like an example. The stock plunged to a low of $58.58 on December 24as investors and traders shunned risk--risk of a recession, risk of the U.S.-China...
January 15, 2019 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Special Reports, Volatility |
Is the bear market over? And if it is, what stocks should you target as "best buys." The first is a really, really tough question to answer now. News of new efforts to stimulate economic growth in China helped push the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index over...