March 1, 2022 | DAC, Daily JAM, NMM, Volatility |
Back in October 2021 (on October 7 to be exact) I added shares of Danaos (DAC) and Navios Maritime Partners (NMM) to my Volatility Portfolio. Disruptions in the global supply chain had produced a bidding war by companies willing to pay almost anything to get their goods, components, and raw materials from Point A to Point B. And these two shipping giants were positioned to reap the rewards of that chaos. Today, though, the chaos is on the other foot (so to speak).
February 7, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Independent Commodity Intelligence Services published its supply/demand outlook for liquified natural gas today, Monday, February 7. The conclusion: Higher supply deficits for 2022 despite the addition of 24 million tons of LNG capacity in 2021. ICIS projects that supplies will increase by just 5.3 million tons in 2022. Demand is forecast to increase by 13.8 million tons.
February 3, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, PXD, Volatility, XLE |
U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate rose above $90 a barrel–it closed at $90.87, up 0.60% for the day, for the first time since 2014. International benchmark Brent crude gained 0.42% to close at $91.53 a barrel. Of course, it took a wild confluence of events to push prices above $90.
February 1, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, PXD, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
OPEC+ meets tomorrow and the oil cartel and friends like Russia is expected to approve an increase in production that will reduce last year’s cuts in production. But the odds are that the decision won’t matter.
January 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is up another 8.87% today to 27.83 on another drop in stocks and continued worry about the effect of looming Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Today I’m going to sell the February 16 VIX Call Options with a strike of 20 (VIX220216C00020000) that I bought on December 31, 2021 in my Volatility Portfolio. I bought those Call Options for $380 a contract and I’m selling today, January 21 with those options trading at $710 a contract as of 2:45 New York time. That’s a gain of 86.8% on this position in roughly four weeks.
January 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
As of 11:15 a.m., the market is tumbling and the VIX “Fear Index” is up 15.79% to 22.22. My January 26 VIX Call Options with a strike at 20 (VIXW220126C00020000) have soared 61.11% to sell at $290 a contract. With the expiration date of January 26 approaching I’m selling this position today.
January 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Perfect Five-ETFs, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Today, the People’s Bank of China cut its key interest rate for the first time in almost two years to help support China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China lowered the rate at which it provides one-year loans to banks by 10 basis points. Not a huge move–100 basis points equals one percentage point–but earlier than many economists–and I–had anticipated.
December 31, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) hasn’t moved much so far in today’s session. The so-called “fear index” is down just 0.23% to 17.26 as of 3:20 p.m. New York time. But there’s been strong action in the options market with risk hedges for the end of January and the middle of February showing losses. I’m going to use today’s selling to buy two VIX Call positions in the Volatility Portfolio.
December 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Volatility |
At the close today, the VIX–the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index–had gained 2.24% to 17.33. During the day it had dropped as much a 1.53% to 16.69. That’s a level that I find interesting, again, as a play on potential volatility in January.
December 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Short Term |
To subscribe to JAM you need to fill in some details below including, ahem, some info on how you'll pay us. A subscription is $199 (although if you're subscribing with one of our special offers it will be lower) for a year for ongoing and continuing access to the...
December 8, 2021 | CHPT, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NKTR, Short Term |
With the VIX “fear index” falling back closer to “normal” levels–it dropped to 21.89 yesterday from 31.12 on December 1–it sure feels like the extreme volatility of the end of November and early December is on the ebb. The move to yesterday’s 21.89 close from December 1 was was a surge of 30% in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index in a week. This move away from panic follows on a jump in the “fear index” in the week from November 24 to December 1 of 67% in the opposite direction. I’d be surprised if we don’t see another surge in volatility in the rest of December or in January with what promises to be a crazy earnings season, but even if volatility holds at something like today’s level–slightly elevated from the historical averages but in the rough ballpark–don’t forget that volatility has a long tail. Volatility, in fact, creates volatility. And not least of all in individual stocks.
December 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, JO, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
But 2021 has been very, very good to the iPath B Bloomberg Coffee Total Return ETN (JO). A series of disruptions–weather in Brazil and Colombia, a shortage of shipping containers that curbed exports from Vietnam, a civil war in Ethiopia–sent coffee prices to a 10-year high on November 30. Despite the global Pandemic depressing demand from consumers who didn’t venture out of coffee shops during the worst of the virus outbreak. Now after a 73% gain for 2021 to date the question for investors after the is how much higher can coffee prices and this coffee ETF go?
The trend for the next year or two looks positive.
