Videos
April 11, 2025 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s Hot Money Move is Where’s the Systemic Risk This Time? I’m watching the banking sector for signs of a liquidity crunch-—specifically, the growing pile of “stranded loans” from private equity buyouts. Banks lent billions for these deals but now can’t offload the debt to investors, locking up capital that should be flowing elsewhere. If this logjam gets worse, the Fed could see it as systemic risk—-just like in 2008 or 2020-—and step in with a lifeline. The Play: Watch mid-tier banks (think PNC, not JPMorgan) when earnings drop in April. If they start warning about stuck loans, it’s a signal the Fed might move. That’s when liquidity fears could turn into a market-wide event. For now, it’s a waiting game—-but one worth tracking closely.
April 9, 2025 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Video: No Powell Put…Yet. The market is betting on the Fed riding to the rescue with rate cuts, but I don’t see it happening anytime soon. The Fed’s job is controlling inflation and employment—not propping up stocks. Even with recent market jitters, the economy still looks too strong for the Fed to panic. Jobs numbers are holding up, and we haven’t even felt the full drag from tariffs or the potential stimulus of looming Trump tax cuts. The Fed won’t move until the data screams weakness—and right now, it’s just whispering. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in three cuts this year, with some even hoping for an emergency cut before May. That’s wishful thinking. The Fed knows premature easing could backfire, especially with tariffs threatening inflation. Technically, the S&P 500 could drop another 5% to 10% before hitting key support levels. Bottom line: Don’t get suckered by bear market rallies. The Fed isn’t bailing anyone out yet, and betting otherwise is a dangerous game.
April 7, 2025 | Daily JAM, Videos, VIX |
Today’s Hot Money Move is The Volatility of the VIX. I’ve been playing the VIX (the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index) as a hedge against market fear, and right now, it’s showing a clear pattern tied to tariff anxiety. Back in January, I bought VIX options when the index was sitting between 14 and 16—near its long-term average of 15 to 17—with strike prices at 20 to 25. Lately, these options have been swinging hard, jumping 30–40% in value before pulling back and then rallying again. The reason? Investors panic ahead of tariff announcements, driving the VIX up as they hedge. But here’s the pattern: once the tariffs are actually announced, the VIX drops as relief sets in. For active traders, this is a short-term play—buy into the fear, sell into the relief. Just remember: these patterns hold until they don’t, so keep a close eye on it if you’re going to make these plays.
April 4, 2025 | Daily JAM, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Tencent Holdings ADR (TCEHY). Tencent is the world’s biggest computer gaming company and operator of China’s biggest chat platform. I’ve had them in my long term portfolio for a while, but the reason I’m suggesting this stock now is the AI boom happening in China. China is able to build AI models more economically than U.S. AI companies models and Tencent is a big player in the space. Last I checked, they were about 20% undervalued according to Morningstar. If you’re looking for stocks that will move independently from the U.S. market, China’s internet and AI sector is a good place to be.
April 2, 2025 | Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s video is Why the Fed is Almost Certain to be Wrong. Blame it in lags. Lags make economic forecasting really difficult at the best of times. How long does it take policies like tariffs and tax cuts to actually affect the economy and show up in the data? Right now, we’re dealing with lags from a tariffs that will eventually raise consumer prices. We don’t know when this will hit people in the wallet and really start to affect the economy as a whole. Another problem is the upcoming Trump tax cuts. This will be stimulative to the economy and the Fed may have to look at raising rates again in effort to slow more inflation. If, however, the tariffs slow the economy enough to balance out the stimulative effect of the tax cuts, the Fed would look at lowering rates. There’s really little that monetary policy can do about tariff-caused price increases. White House accounting says the tariffs and tax cuts will balance each other, but it’s tough to say if the money coming out of consumer pockets are the same pockets benefiting from the tax cuts. All this to say, the Fed remains between a rock and a hard place, and has little chance of getting this right and will almost certaInly make a mistake. The question is, How big will the mistake be?
March 14, 2025 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Apple (AAPL). This is a short term buy or, if you own it, a “get ready to sell.” Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference happens in early May, and the stock usually gets a bounce from new product and technology announcements. This year we’re likely to hear more on AI. Apple’s stock hasn’t performed all that well lately, and I don’t want to hold the stock after the expected pop from the conference and new product releases in the fall. I worry about the long term choices the company is making. Apple has decided not to offer a low-price, affordable introductory iPhone as a gateway to their suite of products. They’ve effectively ceded the lower end of the market to other players–especially in China. They’ve also just announced that the AI add-ons to Siri they promised have been delayed and it’s unclear when they’ll be available. Apple is lagging in AI as other companies race ahead. We can expect disappointing sales in December–particularly out of China. I don’t want to hold on to the stock at the end of the year and I’m looking to sell on a bounce after the conference and new product launches in September.
March 13, 2025 | COST, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Videos, WMT |
Today’s video is Retail Stocks and Recession Fears. In the past week we’ve seen a cascade of negative news from the retail sector. Macy’s announced projected comparable store sales would be “down slightly” for 2025, and Target expected flat comparable store sales for 2025. Last week, Target’s stock was down 7.4% and Best Buy fell 11.5%. I own Costco and Wal-Mart, (the best retail stocks at the moment) but I will be selling them this week. Costco, which I bought in 2022, is up 69% since I purchased it. I’ll be taking my profits and eliminating my exposure to the sector, which is a good place to be while tariffs and a volatile economy threaten retail stocks.
February 14, 2025 | AAPL, ACAD, AGN, ALV, AMZN, AUY, BABA, BG, BGC, BHP, BMY, CHK, CMI, CNI, COH, CSCO, CX, Daily JAM, DD, DE, DHR, DXJR, EBAY, ENB, EUM, FB, FCX, FLR, FLS, FTV, GLD, Jubak Picks, MPC, OGXI, OKS, PEP, PFXF, POT, PXD, QCOM, RSPP, RYN, SDRL, SFTBY, SH, SLB, SPWR, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is China Buys More Gold. Gold seems like a good asset to own right now but it’s also trading at record highs. So while gold is safe, especially if inflation goes up, how much higher do you expect gold to go? One thing to look at it is who is emerging as a buyer. Central banks have been buying gold to hedge risks and diversify, which has contributed to the record highs. Recently, the Chinese government announced that 10 big Chinese insurance companies will now be allowed to put up to 1% of their portfolios into gold. This hasn’t been allowed in the past and will provide about $27 billion for new gold buying. This is also just another sign that countries and businesses are looking to hedge risk by buying gold and it’s one of the safer places to be in an uncertain market.
February 12, 2025 | Daily JAM, ISRG, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). While 2024 was a good year for the market, it wasn’t so great for the healthcare. The sector was down about .04%. Moderna was down 60%, CVS Health was down 50% and Walgreens was down 55%–but there were a few big winners. Intuitive Surgical, maker of the Da Vinci Robotic Surgical System, was the best performing healthcare stock in 2024. The stock went up 54.7% in 2024 and it’s gone up another 11.7% so far in 2025. At the moment, Morningstar says the stock is trading at 67% premium, with a high PE of around 80, so I’d suggest waiting to buy on a dip. I like this company because it’s growing revenue steadily, around 10% a year. I believe there is a good chance at getting a substantial market dip in 2025, and if that happens, take a look at this great long-term, steady performer in the healthcare sector. The stock has been a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio since January 28, 2019. the shares are up 257% since then as of the close on February 10.
February 11, 2025 | AGN, ALV, AMZN, AUY, BABA, BG, BGC, BHP, BMY, CHK, CMI, CNI, COH, CSCO, CX, Daily JAM, DD, DE, DHR, DXJR, EBAY, ENB, EUM, FB, FCX, FLR, FLS, FTV, GE, GLW, GOOG, HAIN, HDB, INCY, IONS, ITUB, JCI, JO, JOY, KMI, LFL, LNG, LUX, MGM, MIDD, MON, MPC, OGXI, OKS, PEP, PFXF, POT, PXD, QCOM, RSPP, RYN, SDRL, SFTBY, SH, SLB, SPWR, Videos |
Today’s video is Is Wall Street ready to write off 2025? I’m seeing a gradual move on Wall Street from “Trump doesn’t mean what he’s saying about tariffs and mass deportations” to “Maybe he is serious.” On Monday, Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum with a starting date of March 4, on top of other tariffs already announced. You can see the shift in commentary from big banks like Bank of America and JP Morgan. These companies are now saying that things that will negatively affect growth are happening much more quickly than things that will support the stock prices. New tariffs and economic uncertainty, which has caused the Fed to refrain from cutting interest rates, are happening now and will be hitting the market. Tax cuts and deregulation, which could goose growth, will take longer to implement and we may not feel those positive effects until 2026 or later. Wall Street is basically saying that 2025 will be a year of negative risks, but 2026 may be more of an upside if tax cuts and deregulation do, indeed, happen.
February 8, 2025 | Daily JAM, GLD, Jubak Picks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is “Gold via 747.” It is extraordinary when big New York banks like Goldman Sachs have hired 747s to fly physical gold from London (where it’s cheaper) to New York. Most investors don’t own a 747 and may not be able to do this trade, but it is indicative of the high degree of uncertainty in the market. Flying gold from London to New York is a truly extreme move, and you wouldn’t see that without an underlying fundamental stress in the market. Gold is trading near all-time highs and you may not make a whole lot of money buying gold ETFs from here, but you would be avoiding some risk in the rest of the market. I have the GLD ETF in my Jubak Picks portfolio and will likely look for another to add.
February 6, 2025 | Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX). The FDA has approved a new non-opioid, non-addictive pain killer from Vertex Pharmaceuticals. It’s currently only approved for acute pain, not long term, chronic pain. Acute pain treatment is about a $100 million market with plenty of generic opioid competitors. Because of this, the stock didn’t pop a lot on the approval news–less than 10%. This is a long term buy on the next market dip with an eye toward approval for chronic pain, a much larger market, and a much bigger jump in the stock.
