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Is Wall Street forecasting a correction–or talking stocks into one?
Goldman Sachs’ influential strategist David Kostin has just cut his target for the Standard & Poor’s 500 for a second time this month. (Kostin had first reduced his target from 6,500 on March 11.) He now expects the index to end the year at around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200. The new target implies a gain of just 2% from Friday’s close. In other words, you’d be better off buying a 6-month Treasury paying 4.23% and holding it to maturity.
More excitement for April 2, Liberation Day: Tesla reports first quarter deliveries
On 2 April, Liberation Day, President Donald Trump will announce a big new round of tariffs on global exports to the United States. And Tesla (TSLA) will release data for first-quarter deliveries. Analysts expect the report to show a dip on the same period last year.
Another vote in the White House for more tariffs
It’s not clear who White House advisor Peter Navarro speaks for but on Sunday he spoke up loudly for more tariffs. On Fox News Navarro claimed Sunday that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs would raise more than $6 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade. Exactly why that’s a good idea wasn’t clear from Navarro’s appearance since it would amount to the largest peacetime tax hike in modern U.S. history.
The dollar isn’t behaving like it’s supposed to–replacing dollar ETF with yen ETF
On Monday, March 31, I will sell the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index BullishFund ETF (UUP) out of the Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio and replace it with the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY). I will leave the portfolio weighting at 25%. The yen ETF is up 5.32% in the last three months as of the close on March 28. It charges a 0.40% expense ratio.
What if the Trump tariffs are going to be bigger than Wall Street expects?
Wall Street is, clearly, afraid that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are going to significantly slow the U.S. economy. Those fears drove the Standard & Poor’s 500 down another 1.97% on Friday and sent the NASDAQ Composite down 2.70%. But I think that there’s still a large percentage of investors who think the tariffs won’t be as bad as their advance press suggests, either because they believe they’re simply negotiating ploys or because President Trump has history of barking worse than he bites. Frankly, I think those investors are wrong.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
The next big round of Trump tariffs and the March jobs numbers will be the big events of the week.
Economists cut their forecasts for GDP growth in 2025
In the latest Bloomberg survey, economists cut back their expectations for U.S. growth this year.Gross Domestic Product, (GDP) will grow at a 2% rate. That’s down from projections of 2.3% growth in the previous month’s poll
The economists in the survey lowered their projection for first-quarter growth by a full percentage point to 1.2%.
Bad inflation news is worse than expected
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure rose in February at a faster pace than in January. The rate of increase was also greater than economists had expected
More inflation data tomorrow and it’s not expected to be good
Friday’s core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy—-the central bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation-—is forecast to show signs of stickiness.
Trump to announce big, new auto tariffs
President Donald Trump will announce auto tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said during a briefing with reporters at the White House.
Details of the tariffs are unclear–who following White House “policy” on tariffs is surprised at that? Stock markets fell on news. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down 1.12%. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 2.04%.
Moody’s warns on U.S. finances
Credit rating company, Moody’s Investors Service, one of the three big debt ratio companies, warned on Tuesday that President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs could hamper the country’s ability to cope with a growing debt pile and higher interest rates. The rating agency said that America’s “fiscal strength is on course for a continued multiyear decline”, having already “deteriorated further” since it assigned a negative outlook to America’s Aaa credit rating in November 2023.
Consumer confidence continues to fall–now at a 4 year low
U.S. consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years, according to the Conference Board’s survey.
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence fell 7.2 points to 92.9. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 94. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped nearly 10 points to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years
More news likely to keep AI rally going in China–adding Alibaba to my portfolios
Today I added shares of Tencent (TCEHY) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) to my portfolios at least partly on the strength of China’s AI rally. Tomorrow, March 25, I’d adding shares of Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak Picks and Volatility portfolios.
A new Trump tariff “plan”–every country that buys oil from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff
President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25% tariff on exports to the United States.
This “secondary tariff” will take effect on April 2, the president announced in a Truth Social post.
Buying more Tencent ADRs for my portfolios
On Monday, March 24, I’m adding these Tencent ADRs (TCEHY) TO my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios.
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