November 5, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I continue to see this rally continuing through the fourth quarter of 2024vbefore faltering in the first quarter of 2025. That call does assume that we’ll get through today’s election and its aftermath with relatively little actual violence–protests in the streets from the losing side and lots of court cases, but no mass armed violence. And it assumes that projected earnings growth in the fourth quarter will live up to expectations and show the highest growth rate in all of 2024. No one knows what this post-election period will bring. So let’s move onto assumption #2: How likely is it that fourth quarter growth will hold up?
November 4, 2024 | CNH, Daily JAM, DE, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Today I added CNH Industrial (CNH) as Pick #7 for my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally.” I also added the stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. Here’s what I wrote:
I like farm equipment maker CNH Industrial for the same reason I own Deere (DE) in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. In the long term the world’s farmers are facing a huge challenge: produce more food as an increasingly chaotic climate makes growing stuff harder and harder. One important piece of the solution is a new generation of intelligent farm equipment that uses artificial intelligence to guide everything from when to plant to when to fertilize. At the moment, though, I like CNH more on price. CNH, the #2 farm equipment maker, is invitingly attractive because it is so cheap, absolutely and in comparison to Deere.
November 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, FTNT, Jubak Picks, PANW, Stock Alerts |
Today I added Fortinet (FTNT) as Pick #6 for my Special Report “10 new stock ideas for an old rally.” I also added the stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. Here’s what I wrote:
There’s a long-term buying cycle in the firewall cyber security sector.
November 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In normal times, the November 7 meeting of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting body, the Open Market Committee would be the big event of the week. But these aren’t normal times in case you haven’t noticed. The country faces a stark choice on Tuesday and the polls show essentially a dead heat. And then add in fears that Donald Trump and/or his followers won’t accept the election results if he loses. Traders and portfolio managers have been adding hedges to protect against market volatility in the days around the election.
November 2, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
AI chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing chipmaker Intel (INTC), S&P Dow Jones Indices, the owner of the 127-year-old index, said late Friday.
November 1, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy added 12,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate, which uses a different survey method, held steady at 4.1%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised the August and September reports to take a total of 112,000 jobs off earlier estimates. The average job growth over the past three months is now 104,000, down from 189,000 over the six months before that. The revised data and the October estimate are both more in line, in my opinion, with what is likely to have been happening in the economy as the result of high interest rates from the Federal Reserve. I thought hugh interest rates should have been slowing the economy more than the initial data suggested. And now it it looks like those high rates were working much more in line with past history of the economy. Of course, the big question today is should we believe the October report
October 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of U.S. inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, fell to a 2.1% annual rate in September.
October 31, 2024 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, Top 50 Stocks |
From BIG Tech earnings results so far, what seems clear is that if a company smashes through expectations like Alphabet (GOOG) did, the stock will climb. If, however, you merely match expectations like Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) then shares retreat.
October 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, LAC, Long Term, Millennial, Stock Alerts |
Yesterday, Lithium Americas (LCA) announced that it had closed a $2.26 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office under the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program. The funding is earmarked for the construction of processing facilities at the Thacker Pass lithium project in Humboldt County, Nevada. Thacker Pass is currently North America’s largest known lithium resource. The stock jumped almost 5% yesterday on the news. It fell 8.87% today to $4.11 a share. Lithium Americas is a member of my Millennial Portfolio.
October 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today. The growth rate was down slightly from 3.0% in the second quarter. Economists had projected 3.1% growth. GDP has now climbed for 10 straight quarters.
October 29, 2024 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence jumped 9.5 points to 108.7, the highest level since the start of the year, data released Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 99.5. The month to month increase was the biggest since March 2021.
October 28, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
Yields rose and bond prices dropped again today as weak demand in a pair of Treasury note auctions suggested investors are anxious about supply on the eve of the next financing quarter. For the day, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose 4 basis points to a yield of 4.28%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury is now up 53 basis points in the last month.
