Today I made my first 2 Harris picks in my Special Report on election stock winners
Today I added 2 Harris picks to my prior 3 Trump picks.
Of course, neither candidate is taking about the soaring budget deficit
The federal budget deficit swelled to $1.8 trillion in the fiscal year that ended in September, the Congressional Budget Office warned today, Tuesday, October 8. In the recently concluded fiscal 2024 year interest payments on the debt reached $950 billion, larger than the size of the Pentagon budget. As of Friday, the United States had accumulated a public debt of $35.7 trillion.
A perfect storm? War, oil, hurricanes, earnings, interest rates all worry stocks at once
It’s not surprising that stocks fell Monday, October 7. But it is surprising that they fell so little. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was off 0.96% on the day. The NASDAQ Composite dropped 1.18%. Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge–the VIX–jumped to “just” a two-month high. Look at the negatives arrayed against stocks
Wait! No soft landing! No more rate cuts! The market freaks out again!
It’s back! Fear that the economy is so strong that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates as sharply or as quickly as expected. In the last few days, following on a surprisingly strong September jobs report, the market has gone from giving 50/50 odds to a second large 50 basis point interest rate cut at its November 7 meeting to pricing in doubts that the central bank will deliver even a 25 basis point cut.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week, ahead expect…
I expect a transition from a market dominated by speculation about the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to worries about earnings and the growth rate for corporate profits.
Albemarle, lithium stocks jump on buy-out speculation
Shares of lithium market leader Albemarle (ALB) rose 8.25% on Friday to close at $102.O9 on speculation in Australia that mining giant Rio Tinto (RIO) will pursue a major lithium deal with Albemarle cited as a possible target. Shares of Arcadium Lithium (ALTM), Lithium Americas (LAC) and Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM) also jumped, +10%, +7.1% and +3.1%, respectively. The speculation makes sense to me.
Strong September jobs report lowers expectations for 50 basis point cut from the Fed
Odds on a 50 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve at its November 7 meeting plunged to 0% today on the CME FedWatch tool after a strong jobs report for September showed a tick down in the unemployment rate.
September jobs report good news for the economy
The U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September, the most in six months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and hourly earnings increased 4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strong data is reassuring investors worried that the Federal Reserve had moved too slowly to cut interest rates and that the economy was headed toward a slump.
Money-market fund assets rise to record $6.46 trillion–but what does it mean?
Total assets under management in U.S. money-market funds rose by $38.7 billion in the week week ended October 2, according to the latest Investment Company Institute data released on Thursday. The increase puts total assets at a record $6.46 trillion, and caps the biggest quarter of inflows since the March 2023 banking crisis. The old record was set when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and other lenders sent a flood of cash into money-market funds as the Federal Reserve raised rates. What’s odd now is that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates and the financial system doesn’t seem particularly stressed.
Right now markets aren’t pricing in regional war in Middle East–that could change fast
What’s amazing to me right now is how complacent Wall Street is about the prospects for a wider regional war in the Middle East. Which could include an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities.On a day when Israel vowed to retaliate against a barrage from Iran that rained down missiles on Israel’s Iron Dome defense, West Texas Intermediate oil rose by just 0.39% to $70.10 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude was ahead just 1.43% to 74.61.
Tesla misses on quarterly deliveries–again
Tesla (TSLA) delivered 462,890 vehicles in the three months to 30 September. That was up 6.4% from the preceding quarter. But the delivery total missed Wall Street expectations for it to deliver 469,828 vehicles. That left the company facing the daunting task of delivering a record 516,344 vehicles in the fourth quarter in order to match its 2023 delivery figure of 1.81 million vehicles. A shortfall would result in Tesla recording its first ever annual drop in deliveries.
Special Report “10 Trump and 10 Harris winners (and 5 losers)–first 3 Trump picks and first 3 Harris picks
I don’t know which candidate will win the election. Right now the polls are within the margin of error on the national level–and even tighter in the seven battleground states that will likely decide the electionm. But I do know the results on November 5 will move stocks. Some right off the bat even before the results are certified. Ans more significantly as a new administration clarifies its policy views and takes office.The results will move the stock market in general
And they will move individual stocks and sectors in particular.
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