Today’s stock pick of the week is Merck, (MRK). Merck’s “problem” is that one of its biggest revenue streams comes from Keytruda, an oncology drug that will be going off-patent in 2028. In 2023, Merck projected new oncology drugs would bring in an additional $10 billion to replace Keytruda’s revenue. At this year’s JPMorgan healthcare conference, the company’s projection was even higher at $20 billion by the 2030s.
The Magnificent Seven stocks accounted for virtually all of 2023’s 24% stock market gain. The Magnificent Seven stocks are Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA). And according to Wall Street analysts these stocks are set to do it again when they report fourth quarter earnings beginning this week (on Wednesday, Jonuary 24, with Tesla and continuing into the following week.The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver combined earnings growth of about 46%, according to data from Bloomberg. That’s down slightly from the third quarter’s 53% expansion, but it still dwarfs almost all of the main sectors in the S&P 500 Index. It’s not surprising, therefore, that the long Magnificent Seven (and other tech stocks) is the most common trade in the current market. Nor that the options market is pricing in “virtually no risk” for mega-cap stocks, Brian Donlin, head of equity derivatives strategy at Stifel Nicolaus, told Bloomberg. All of which makes the recent weakness in some of the Mgnificent Seven stocks a bit worrying. Apple and Tesla are most likely to deliver disappointing numbers.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will deliver the initial reading on fourth quarter GDP. Economists project that the report will show the economy grew at an annualized 2% rate. That would be down from the 4.9% in the third quarter (however, no one expected a repeat of the annual rate) but together the two quarters would be the strongest back-to-back quarters for growth since 2021. A day later the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gage, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, is expected to show a continued decline in inflation to annualized rate of 3% in December. This would be an 11th straight month of declining inflation.
In a week where the U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 and NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 set new record highs, China’s stock market turned in another big move to the downside. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has already lost 11% in 2024. That comes after a record four-year losing streak and the slump this year has just reinforced the opinion among money managers that “China is uninvestable now.” The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index slipped was down by as much as 2.2% at the start of US trading Friday, extending losses to a fifth consecutive day. The grim milestones keep accumulating.
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were up almost 10% yesterday after the company announced an unexpectedly strong return to growth. That has in turn pushed chip stocks higher across the sector. For example, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which were already moving higher this week ahead of the news, hit a new record high today. The good news from semiconductor companies and the moves on their stock have also rallied the general market.
Today, January 18, with plenty of time to beat the January 19 deadline for funding the government or shutting it down, Congress passed yet another temporary spending bill. The interim measure would fund some agencies-—set to run out of money after Friday–through March 1 and others through March 8.
Today I posted my 319th YouTube video: Quick Pick Visa. And I’ll be adding the stock to another of my portfolios.
Today’s video is Exogenous Factors: Middle East and Taiwan. The market has been focused on earnings and the Fed as of late, but, there are a lot of big exogenous factors that should also be on the radar. Two of those factors are Taiwan and the Middle East.
I’m back! It’s been a long hiatus since I moved to Venice in September (yes, Italy, and not California or Florida) but I’m back and I’ll be resuming my videos from here on out. Today’s video is: Will We Have a Santa Claus Rally Hangover in January?
It’s important to remember exactly how young artificial intelligence is as a market product. I certainly don’t think it’s possible to project the long-term winners on either the software or hardware side. Remember the days when Apple (AAPL) thought it was worth buying a Super Bowl add to urge consumers to smash the IBM PC empire? But I do think the hardware road map is petty clear for the next two to three years. Which is why I’m adding shares of Advanced Micro Devices to my portfolios tomorrow.
Last month, the bond market was almost fully pricing the first interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in March. Now, though the odds for a 25 basis point cut are down to more like 50/50. Today, January 17, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose another 5 basis points to 4.10%.
Well, what did you expect Chinese officials to talk about at Davos? Yesterday, Premier Li Qiang said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that China’s economy is expected to have grown 5.2% in 2023. Which would exceed the government’s target of “around 5%” set in March. Li’s estimate roughly agrees with the average 5.3% expected by economists. In 2022, China’s economy grew at a 3% rate.But also yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics said that China’s population decline has accelerated.
