Jubak Picks
June 8, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Special Reports |
Before I get around to making the fifth and final stock pick in this Special Report: 5 picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market, let me take a moment to bring my survey of market conditions up to date. Where we are now has a strong influence on what stocks to own and buy and on how to hedge against any downturn. The question I’ve asked in the headline to this post is the critical one now: What happens when a momentum market loses its momentum? I think investors and traders can answer that question by just looking around them.
June 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, DNNGY, Jubak Picks, SMOG, VWDRY |
I don’t think 2021 is going to be an especially good year for Tesla and it will be tough across the auto industry. That means, if I’m right, that this ETF’s heavy exposure to Tesla (and to Nio) is going to be a drag on what I see as a likely recovery in the wind power stocks Iberdrola, Orsted, and Vestas Wind Systems that all are top 10 portfolio holdings in the ETF. I’d rather play any wind power rally through these stocks–I own Orsted (DNNGY) and Vestas (VWDRY) in my Jubak Picks Portfolio–than though this ETF with its drag from Tesla in 2021. I will sell the VanEck Vectors Low Carbon Energy ETF out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow June 3.
May 25, 2021 | Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
Oil prices have bounced back big time and with them the prices on oil stocks. I still think the long-term trend is against oil producers as efforts to combat global warming lead to lower consumption of fossil fuels. And I’d prefer not to own any oil and natural gas shares–even in as “progressive” a company as Equinor. I’m going to take advantage of the rally in oil prices to sell these shares out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a small 0.9% gain since I established that position in May 2012.
May 24, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Gold closed up today, May 24, by 0.27% to $1884.00 an ounce for August delivery on the COMEX. That took the metal to its highest price since its January 5 high for 2021 at $1954. The rally in gold from a March 8 low at $1678 an ounce, has not only brought gold near breakeven for 2021, but is pressing against resistance near $1900 an ounce. Gold has posted three straight weekly gains. No secret what’s been driving gold higher: fears of rising inflation.
May 21, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
The chip shortage that has hurt technology companies such as Apple (AAPL) and hammered auto producers continues to pay dividends to Applied Materials (AMAT), the dominant manufacturer of equipment used to make semiconductors. Yesterday, May 20, after the market close in New York, Applied Materials reported fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.63 a share against 89 cents a share in the second quarter of the last fiscal year. Revenue rose to $5.58 billion from $3.96 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2020.
May 21, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, PANW |
Yesterday, May 20, after the market closed, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported third-quarter fiscal 2021 non-GAAP earnings of $1.38 per share. That beat the Wall Street consensus by almost 8%. Last earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal year were $1.17. Revenue gained 24% year over year to $1.07 billion. That was slightly above the Wall Street projection of $1.06 billion. After the earnings announcement the company raised guidance for the fiscal 2021 fourth quarter to project earnings per share of $1.42 to $.44 and year over year revenue growth of 23$ to 24% to $1.65 billion to $1.715 billion. For all of fiscal 2021 the company forecast adjusted earnings of $5.97 to $5.99 a share. That was up from an earlier projection of $5.80 to $5.90 a share.
May 18, 2021 | CHPT, CLII, Daily JAM, DNNGY, ES, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Special Reports, Volatility |
Here are my first five stock picks for my Special Report on finding “Real Green” Stocks. These are my “low-hanging fruit” stocks for climate change.
May 17, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, IFNNY, Jubak Picks, NVDA, NXPI, PYPL, RUN, SEDG, Top 50 Stocks |
Last week’s sell off and rally, which left the Standard & Poor’s 500 down 1.4% for the week, resulted in farther dips in many of the Dip-O-Meter stocks. The picture that emerges is much more complicated than simple advice to “Buy on this dip.”
May 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, DIS, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Shares of Disney (DIS) dropped like a stone when the company reported after the close on May 13 that subscriptions to its Disney+ streaming service fell short of Wall Street projections for the March quarter. The shares closed at $178.37 on May 13 before the report and then opened the next morning at $169.57. They recovered some ground during the day and closed at $173.70 on Friday, May 14, down another 2.60% on the day. I’ve been arguing recently and repeatedly that I think Disney is one of the best stocks to own for a post-vaccine recovery economy. Sure, the subscription gains for Disney+ are likely to slow now that we’re not all locked in our homes and going stir-crazy. But the company’s most profitable unit–the big entertainment parks have been just about shut down during the pandemic and the California parks just started to reopen at the very end of April. I see the drop on the March quarter results as a substantial buying opportunity.
May 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, DE, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Wheat prices hit new highs at $7.46 a bushel at the end of April. That the highest since February 2013. Corn climbed to a new eight year high. The day soybeans rose for a tenth straight session to reach on eight year high.
When the prices of farm commodities climb, it’s tough times ahead at the grocery store for consumers. But it’s good times ahead for farmers and that means increasing sales of tractors and other farm equipment for Deere (DE). I’m adding the shares to my 12-18 month Jubak Picks Portfolio
April 30, 2021 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, WH |
When it comes down to company earnings, we’re seeing a huge lag in revenue growth for companies in the service sector. Wyndham Hotels and Resorts (WH),for example, which reported first quarter results today, April 30, saw revenue fall to $303 million in the first quarter of 2021 from $410 in the first quarter of 2020. But, and I think this is the clear implication of the first quarter GDP numbers, those service companies will close that gap in the June quarter as companies open more services–Disney (DIS) opened its California theme parks today, for example–and consumers feel safer in going to theme parks or restaurants or gyms.
April 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, FCX, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Copper has rallied–again–to a new 10-year high and that has taken Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold to $39.53 today, April 28, as of 3:50 p.m.. That’s above my target price in my Jubak Picks Portfolio of $34. So today I’m selling this position. The stock is up 39.34% as of 3:50 p.m. New York time since I added it to the portfolio on January 6, 2021. I still have substantial exposure to copper through my positions in Southern Copper (SCCO) in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio and in my Dividend Portfolio.
