Jubak Picks
March 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs |
Yesterday in my YouTube video and in my latest addition to my Special Report: “Profit and Protect” I added the U.S. Copper Fund ETF (CPER) and the Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB) to my Perfect Five ETF Portfolio. In that portfolio they will replace the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) and the Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury Bond ETF (VGIT), respectively. The two new ETFs will keep the portfolio weighting of the out-going ETFs at 25% and 20%, respectively. You can find more about the logic of these hedges and about the specifics of these ETFs in my video and in my Special Report update. Tomorrow I’ll also be adding the Invesco KBW Bank ETF to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
March 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term |
Last time, way back on February 23, when I posted on an everything is down market, I said that I didn’t think we were yet at buy on the dip time, but that I was doing a little selective nibbling at stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) that had extraordinarily strong 2012 growth stories. Well, I’ve been doing a little nibbling today–again I’m not buying everything on the drop since I can’t tell where the bottom might be.
March 2, 2021 | Daily JAM, INCY, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Shares of biotech stock Incyte (INCY) have been down significantly in 2021. For the year to date, as of the close on March 2, the shares were down 8.45%. In the last month they’ve tumbled 12.42%. So what’s wrong? Pretty much nothing. With the individual stock anyway. What we’re watching is a lot of selling in the biotech sector as part of the recent sell-off on risk. And on substantial profit taking.
March 1, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
After the close on Monday February 22 Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reported a loss of $1.42 million (or $1.48 a share) on revenue of $1.02 billion million for the company’s fiscal second quarter. Adjusted earnings–which exclude share-based compensation and other items, were $1.53 a share. Revenue grew by 25% year over year. Wall Street had been looking for adjusted earnings of $1.43 a share on revenue of $986 million. Billings for future orders ross to $1.21 billion from $999 in the year ago wearer. Analysts had forecast billings of $1.18 billion. But the shares fell in after hours trading when in its conference call the company forecast adjusted earnings of $1.27 to $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 to $1.06 billion for the fiscal third quarter. Analysts were looking for adjusted earnings of $1.29 a share on revenue of $1.05 billion for the fiscal third quarter. For the full fiscal year Palo Alto Networks forecast adjusted earnings of $5.80 to $5.90 a share on revenue of $4.15 billion to $4.2 billion. Wall Street had been looking for $5.79 a share in adjusted earnings on revenue of $4.12 for the year. On the plus side of the ledger there are two reasons that I’m keeping this company in my Jubak Picks Portfolio and my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio
February 26, 2021 | CRM, CTVA, Daily JAM, ILMN, ISRG, Jubak Picks, PANW, Top 50 Stocks, VMW, Volatility, WST, You Might Have Missed |
On to Stage #2 in my Special Report: “Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021. And to my rules for the sells and hedges in Stage #2 for 2021: When you win, you lose. (I just posted sells for ILMN, CTVA, WST and VMW)
February 25, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term, Volatility |
I’m very reluctant to go bottom fishing here–since I can’t tell where the bottom might be and the one-day losses are significant here. Tesla (TSLA), for example, was down 8.06% TODAY. That’s $59.80 dollars a share. Teladoc (TDOC) dropped 13.74% or $34.98 a share. Guessing wrong on a bottom could be very expensive here. But I am willing to try a few trades. Nothing fancy. Very short-term. But using stocks with very strong longer-term stories that make me feel good about the longer-term prospects for the stocks. And to believe that there are significant numbers of potential bargain hunters hiding in the bushes. So, for example, I’ve been trading in and out of the Call Options on Applied Materials (AMAT).
February 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, XYL |
I’m making Xylem (XYLEM) the 10th and last pick for Stage 1 in my Special Report on the stock market stages for 2021. The stock fills the final slot in my three picks for the climate change trend. The collapse of the energy delivery system in the deep freeze that killed so many people and disrupted the economy from Texas east to Ohio has received the bulk of the headlines. But the stories about families left without drinking water–or indeed water of any sort–should remind us that climate change is also a water crisis.
February 23, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Yesterday tech tumbled but utilities, commodities like copper and even gold, and many “vaccine recovery” plays gained. Today almost everything is down.
Which to me is a sign that this now 6-day downturn is getting closer to an end. Right now, as of 1:30 a.m. in New York the NASDAQ is off another 2.32%. The brings the drop from the mid-february high to 6%. A little more than half way to a 10% correction. I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet. But I am looking for growth stories–which is not the same as “momentum growth stocks”–where the selling has created an opportunity.
February 19, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Given how strong the earnings beat was for the last quarter and how big the increase in guidance was for the next quarter from Applied Materials (AMAT) after the market close last night (February 18) today’s stock gain of 5.19% was actually rather modest.
February 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, ISRG, Jubak Picks, Millennial, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
In my first 10 (actually to be 11 since I’ve got another pick up my sleeve) picks for my new Millennial Portfolio (for investors who have more time than money) I’ve been on the hunt for shares of companies with long, long revenue and earnings growth runways ahead of them, with short-term catalysts that might produce enough of a gain in the near term to keep investors on board for the long run, and some bad news in the present that been negative enough to take a bite of the stock price. Today, February 15, I’m adding Intuitive Surgical to my Millennial Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
February 9, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, IEF, Jubak Picks, Perfect Five-ETFs, VGIT, Volatility |
A year ago, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note stood at 1.59%. From that point yields fell, leading to big gains for Treasuries and other bonds. Yields were down to 0.73% as of the week of April 15, 2020. And then hit their low for 2020 during the week of August 2 at 0.55%. Since then the story for long Treasuries has been just the reverse. By October 4, the yields on 10-year Treasuries were back ump to 0.78%. 0.83% by November 1. 0.93% on December 6. And then 1.16% today February 9. The forecast right now is that yields for long Treasuries aren’t done climbing either.
February 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, FCX, Jubak Picks |
Back on January 26 copper miner Freeport McMoRan (FCX) dropped sharply–down 6.5%–when the company lowered guidance for production in 2021. For 2021 Freeport McMoRan expects sales of 3.8 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold. In October the company guided analysts to production of 3.85 billion pounds of copper and 1.4 million ounces of gold. (Freeport-McMoRan did raised its 2022 target for copper sales to 4.3 billion pounds from 4.2 billion.) But the company did report fourth quarter earnings of 39 cents a share, matching Wall Street projections. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company earned 2 cents a share. But…
