Z-SYMBOLS

Solar cell breakthrough as 30% efficiency barrier falls

Solar cell breakthrough as 30% efficiency barrier falls

This breakthrough in solar power isn’t enough to stop global warming by itself, but it sure is enough to upend the entire energy sector within the next five years. Multiple research groups (and “multiple’ is important here because it means there’s more likelihood that the lab results will hold up to scrutiny. Two groups published the details of their efficiency breakthroughs in the journal Science on Thursday, and at least two others are known to have pushed well beyond 30%.) have reported a breakthrough that will push the efficiency with which solar cells convert sunlight to electricity through the 30% level that has been thought to mark the maximum conversion of sunlight to electricity.

Exxon Mobil guides to huge drop in earnings; just one example of revenue and earnings problems across the sector

Exxon Mobil guides to huge drop in earnings; just one example of revenue and earnings problems across the sector

On Wednesday, July 5, Exxon Mobil (XOM) told investors that second quarter earnings could drop by 50% from earnings in the second quarter of 2022. On Thursday, July 6, shares of Exxon Mobil closed down 3.73%. Remember, we’re talking about Exxon Mobil here, one gigantic oil company. So while earnings could fall by half in the quarter, the company is still looking at quarterly earnings of $6.2 billion. Exxon’s news has implications across the energy sector.

Please WatchMy New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Eli Lilly

Please WatchMy New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Eli Lilly

This week’s Quick Pick is Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY). The worldwide explosion in diabetes has increased the demand for medicine to prevent the illness from advancing from Type 2 to Type 1 diabetes. In developing these drugs, it’s become clear these Type 2 diabetes prescriptions have also excellent potential for weight loss. Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide drug, the market leader,  has been FDA approved for both uses and is marketed as Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for weight loss. Eli Lilly’s competitor drug, Mounjaro, is already approved by the FDA for Type 2 diabetes. That drug is likely to be approved for weight loss as well and looks like it may work even better than Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy. illy’s second diabetes drug, Retatrutide, is still in the pipeline and just reported Phase clinical results showed a 24% loss of body weight after 11 months. Th drug  still has to go into Phase III trials but it is likely to be approved. Lilly’s stock has a 1% yield and is trading at a trailing 12 month PE of 72, so this stock is not cheap. I’ve had this stock in my Jubak Picks portfolio since November 20, 2022 and it’s up about 34% since then, but I believe we can expect another 20% to the upside with the approval of their drugs in the pipeline. The relatively low risk with a likely 20% return makes this a very attractive stock to me.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Long Hot Summer and Natural Gas

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: The Long Hot Summer and Natural Gas

Today’s video is The Long Hot Summer and Natural Gas. If you’ve been following the weather, you know about the huge heat bubble in Texas where temperatures have reached 120 degrees. High temperatures combined with humidity of around 80% can cause serious health problems and even death. The National Weather Service expects this weather to continue and to spread to other parts of the United States, resulting in more and more people staying inside with the air conditioning cranked all the way up. This spike in temperatures is creating a similar spike in natural gas prices. On June 26, we hit a 16-week high for natural gas prices, and July natural gas futures (for July delivery) have been up 14 out of the last 17 sessions. This price surge has two causes ad is operating on two time frames. In the immediate term, the increased air conditioning use stresses the grid, leading to a reliance on natural gas back-ups to supply the energy needed to cover these demand peaks. This, of course, creates a lot more demand for natural gas in the short term. The second thing is a surprising change in long-term thinking about the future of natural gas. I’m seeing a new wave of 20-year supply contracts from places like China and Japan, suggesting countries are thinking that natural gas has a longer future as a transitional fuel as the world moves toward more sustainable energy sources. The two stocks I would look at here are Cheniere Energy, (LNG) and United States Natural Gas Fund, (UNG). Cheniere is up 6% in the last month and is a good way to play the long-term trend in natural gas use. UNG hit a potential bottom in June and is up 16% in the last month. The bigger gain is a result of the ETF being hammered due earlier in the year. UNG is a far more volatile buy, with much higher risk, so if you’re uncomfortable with risk, stick with the more modest but more predictable gains from Cheniere.

U.S. heat wave to expand–but it’s not just a U.S. problem

U.S. heat wave to expand–but it’s not just a U.S. problem

Heat advisories now stretch from northern Florida to southern New Mexico, and excessive-heat warnings have been issued for much of Texas and parts of New Mexico and Arizona and along the Gulf Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. New Orleans is included in the zone of greatest heat risk, with actual air temperatures around 100 degrees and humidity that will push heat indexes to 115 degrees. Excessive-heat watches have been posted for the lower Mississippi Valley and include Memphis and Nashville; Huntsville and Birmingham; Jackson, Mississippi; Little Rock, Arkansas; and Poplar Bluff, Missouri. “Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat-related illnesses,” cautioned the National Weather Service, “particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.” The heat will relent somewhat into early next week for portions of the Southeast and Mid-South, but there is no immediate end in sight for Texas, where blistering and brutal conditions look to continue as a heat doe lingers over Texas. And this is only the latest U.S. manifestation of a global problem.

Is Adobe an artificial intelligence stock? Market certainly thinks so

Is Adobe an artificial intelligence stock? Market certainly thinks so

Adobe’s recent earnings report and guidance leave investors, at least those of us still paying any attention at all to valuation, in a bit of a quandary. Do we sell Adobe on that lackluster forecast for earnings and revenue growth over the next two quarters (and what looks like a stretch, very stretched valuation) or do we hold on with the hope that the market continues its love affair with everything AI?

Adding Generac as a short-term trade to my Volatility Portfolio

Adding Generac as a short-term trade to my Volatility Portfolio

I’ve got major questions about Generac’s (GNRC) long-term growth. The company, the dominant player in the market for residential backup electric generators (with about 4 times the market share–or about 75% of the market–of its nearest competitor) faces big questions, in my opinion, about its long-term strategy and its ability to grab significant revenue in the clean energy market where it faces competition from larger companies, more established in the market, such as SolarEdge (SEDG) and Enphase (ENPH). But in the short run? Say, the next two or maybe three (at the outside) months, I say this is a stock that will ride summer storms and heat waves to gains. Especially, if as I project, the company delivers lackluster quarterly earnings when it reports on August 2, but gives very positive guidance for the next quarter or two

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Quantum Minerals

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Quantum Minerals

This week’s Quick Pick is First Quantum Minerals (FQVL). I’ve talked about copper as an equity kicker in gold mining stocks in a previous video. Barrick, a huge gold producer, is also a significant copper producer and is looking to expand its copper production. The company is currently in “informal talks” with First Quantum Minerals. Year to date, First Quantum Minerals is up 21% and 34% in the last three months, so it definitely shows good short-term momentum. In the long term, copper demand will see tremendous growth in the global climate change economy, including in electric vehicle production. The other benefit here is copper and, of course, gold is a good hedge against inflation which I predict will continue higher than the Federal Reserve and consumers would like for quite some time. Put copper, with its growth potential, together with gold, with its role as an inflation hedge, in one mining stock and you’re starting to look at something good.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Which is it? OK Growth in the  U.S. or Not Great Growth Globally?

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Trend of the Week Which is it? OK Growth in the U.S. or Not Great Growth Globally?

Today’s Trend of the Week is Which is it? OK Growth in the U.S. or Not Great Growth Globally? The U.S. market is rallying and the rally even expand from the narrow nine stocks that have been driving up the indexes. The consensus is the U.S. economy will avoid a recession, the Fed will continue to pause rate hikes, and the U.S. economy as a whole is in decent shape. The problem is that the global economy presents a completely different story with asset values pricing in slowing growth. This shows up most clearly in oil prices, which have been in a downward trend. On June 13, West Texas Intermediate was selling below $70 a barrel, and Brent was down to 74.57. Goldman Sachs has cut its end-of-the-year oil price forecast by about 10%. This cut assumes continued lower demand from China and a supply glut, especially from Russia, as that country produces above agreed-upon caps in an effort to fund its war in Ukraine. If you own oil stocks right now, confirm that the ones in your portfolio can continue to make money at $70 a barrel (at least enough to cover dividends). I’d note the lowest cost source in the United States is in the Permian Basin. Companies like Pioneer National Resources and Devon Energy are focused on production from that region.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick New Era Energy

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick New Era Energy

This week’s Quick Pick is utility NextEra Energy (NEE). NextEra is focused on Florida, a state with a relatively utility-friendly regulatory scheme, and where the company’s Florida Power and Light has 5.8 million customers. NextEra operates a mix of energy sources including seven nuclear plants, 4.6 gigawatts of solar, and, recently, hydrogen as well. That’s a good mix, fortunately, or unfortunately, for this point in the climate crisis. I have owned NEE since November 2020 in my dividend portfolio. The stock price hasn’t moved a lot lately, but if the Fed continues its pause on rate hikes and the economy doesn’t slow further, I think this one will outperform. Right now you get a 2.5% dividend with the possibility of capital appreciation if the company’s alternative energy efforts continue to show growth and when/if the Fed cuts interest rates.