Z-SYMBOLS
March 20, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, MSFT |
Ok, so Dan Ives is talking his book (or sector at least) but he still raises an interesting point. (Dan Ives is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities since 2018.) With bank stocks in particular and the financial sector in general in turmoil, will investors looking for steady earnings turn to tech stocks? (Well maybe not all tech stocks but how about Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT)?
March 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
Back on March 6, I bought Call Options on the CBEO S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) at a strike of 23 for the May 17 and June 21 expirations. My logic was that at 18 or so, the VIX was trading at a level that basically ignored all of the potential negative news and trends visible in the financial market for the next couple of weeks. I certainly didn’t count on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank or the wave of fear that has today overwhelmed shares of every regional and fintech bank. I think the odds are that the crisis won’t go away, but that the extreme fear of today will turn into something less extreme over the next day or so. Fear tends to work like that in the financial markets: When investors and traders discover the sky has fallen today, they get more optimistic (not always reasonably) about tomorrow. So I’m selling the May 17 Call Option on the VIX that I bought on March 6. The purchase price that day was $$94 per contract. The price today closed at $420 per contract. That’s a gain of 116%.
March 9, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). For this Quick Pick, I’m suggesting you wait to buy until Apple falls to around $140 (which I think is coming.) Apple, like many tech stocks, is a seasonal stock, and we’re currently in one of the company’s traditionally weaker quarters. The Christmas buying quarters (the last two quarters of the year) are when Apple brings in the most revenue, and the first two calendar quarters are generally weaker. Apple took a hit during the big downward turn on the bear when all tech stocks were hit, but the stock recovered strongly during this early 2023 rally. If shares get down to $140, that’s a great place to get in before Apple announces new technology and updates to its product line. There are rumblings of an Apple VR headset announcement coming soon and we know that we’ll see new iMacs and Powerbooks. We can also look forward to the Apple Developer Conference in May and new product announcements in September. If you can get this cheap in the first half of the year, you can look for a big recovery in the second half of the year.
March 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, FQVLF, Millennial, SCCO |
First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) has reached an agreement on a new concession contract with Panama’s government over its huge Cobre Panama copper mine. The agreeent, assuming tht a final signing goes ahead, would end a months-long dispute that has halted ore processing and export shipments. The Cobre Panama mine accounted, before the dispute, for 1.5% of global copper production.
March 6, 2023 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) has dropped back near 18–the index was at 18.50 as of noon New York time on Monday, March 6–despite what looks like a month or two of potential volatility ahead. So, as of this morning, I’m buying Call Options on the VIX for May 17 with a strike price of 23 (at a cost of $197 a contract) and on the June 23 contract with a strike price of 23 (at a cost of $254 a contract) for my Volatility Portfolio.
March 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, LAC, Millennial |
Lithium Americas (LAC) isn’t letting any grass grow under its feet. Just a day after the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals refused a request for an emergency injunction that would have blocked construction at the Thacker Pass, Nevada, the proposed site of what could become the largest North American source of lithium, the company announced that it had begun construction of the massive strip mine.
March 3, 2023 | CCJ, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
When I added Cameco (CCJ), the big Canadian uranium producer, to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on February 22, 2023, I argued that plans by China and India to burn more coal, despite a potentially catastrophic increase in global temperatures, meant that the world would have to put plans to phase out nuclear power on hold. And that a world desperate to avoid the worst climate outcomes would lead to a revived nuclear power industry–and higher uranium sales for Cameco. Now California has provided a roadmap for exactly how and why this will happen.
March 2, 2023 | Daily JAM, LICY, Millennial |
Today’s Quick Pick is Li-Cycle Holdings (NYSE: LICY). Li-Cycle is in the start-up stage of building a hub and spoke system to recycle lithium batteries. As more electric vehicles enter the market, companies that can recycle the lithium from their batteries has drawn a lot of investment dollars, both because fulfilling the green potential of electric vehicles requires closing the battery loop and because recycling provides a supply increasingly expensive of battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. And there are new incentives in the field because the Inflation Reduction Act included money for loans/funding for recycling companies. Most of the new entrants are private. One of the few publicly traded battery recycling companies is Li-Cycle. Li-Cycle started as a SPAC, a formerly popular way to take a company, but now the market is largely shunning SPAC companies out of fear that they will run out of capital before they hit breakeven. However, Li-Cycle just announced it had received conditional approval for a $375 million loan from the Department of Energy, allowing it, by my calculations, Â to finish their Rochester hub. The hub recovers marketable lithium, cobalt, and nickel from the black mass that the company collects from batteries. Once the hub is completed, it will go from a cash drain on the balance sheet to a generator of cash. This is a risky stock. The shares are down 57% since I added them to my Milliennial Portfolio on November 15, 2021 but they are up 21% for 2023 to date as of March 2. This one is for the strong of stomach willing to take a risk and hold on to it through dips as the company starts to generate revenue and earnings.
March 2, 2023 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, TSLA |
Yesterday’s investors day could have been a huge positive that sent Tesla (TSLA) shares soaring today. Instead, because the company and its CEO Elon Musk once again over-promised and underdelivered, investors went away disappointed and today, March 2, the stock was down 5.85% at the close.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs, Videos |
Today’s topic is Will China Send the Global Economy Surging? We’ll really know the answer to this starting on Sunday, when the National People’s Congress of China meets. The leaders of China will make some important decisions for the Congress to rubber-stamp. China is looking for a 5% or higher GDP growth this year after last year’s 3%, but in order to get there, they’ll have to stimulate the economy. Local governments are drowning in debt that they can’t pay, and the government’s usual stimulus plan of requiring local governments to borrow and then spend it on “infrastructure “, isn’t likely to work. There’s also added pressure to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy and the rising tide (albeit a very low tide) of disgruntlement of the government and Xi Jinping’s leadership throughout the Covid lockdowns and the subsequent deadly spread of Covid-19. All this while the population is aging dramatically (with little to no retirement infrastructure), following the one-child policy, which reduced the younger population drastically. To take advantage of the expected and necessary economic stimulus, I recommend the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA: FX) which captures a lot of the state-owned and larger corporate companies that would likely benefit from a stimulus from China. You’ll  find it in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio.
March 1, 2023 | Daily JAM, EUM, FXI, Perfect Five-ETFs |
China’s manufacturing activity recorded its highest monthly improvement in more than a decade in February, while services also showed stronger-than-expected performance. Home sales rose for the first time in 20 months. Which has helped push Chinese stocks higher–along with the belief that the annual People’s Congress meeting that begins on Sunday will produce new stimulus measures from the central government.
February 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Short Term, USO |
Oil prices fell again in February with crude dropping another $2 a barrel on the month. Crude prices really didn’t show much of a trend in February as worries over an economic slowdown caused by higher interest rates battled signs of tighter supply. The reading range for the month was the smallest since July 2021. Signs of increased demand from China and the continued bite of sanctions against Russia point to gains for oil in coming months.
