Z-SYMBOLS
October 25, 2022 | CORN, Daily JAM, Volatility |
It’s not like the grain export deal that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed is working all that all. Grain exports from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea are running at an estimated 25% to 30% of pre-war levels. But any exports of Ukrainian grain have been a boon for consumers struggling with food inflation. And especially for consumers in developing economies where the issue hasn’t been just the price of food but also its availability at all. But that deal expires on November 19 and no one knows whether or not President Putin will renew it.
October 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, KO, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
This morning before the stock market open Coca-Cola reported earnings of 69 cents a share for the third quarter. That was up from 65 cents a share in the third quarter of 2021 and was above the 64 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. Revenue of $11.1 billion was higher than the $10.5 billion projected by Wall Street.
October 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, TSLA |
Rising production and slowing sales have led Tesla (TSLA) to cut the price of the cheapest Model 3 sedan, built in China, by 5% to 265,900 yuan ($36,774), today, Monday, October 24. The company dropped the starting price of the Model Y SUV by 8.8% to 288,900 yuan. The roots of the problem include competition from local Chinese electric vehicle makers led by BYD Co. (BYDDY)–which sold a record 200,973 vehicles last month
October 23, 2022 | AAPL, AMZN, CAT, Daily JAM, EQNR, GOOG, Morning Briefing, MSFT, PXD |
Earnings. Earnings. And more earnings. From the big bellwether technology stocks: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet. Wall Street has already slashed earnings forecast for these stocks so there’s a good chance these companies will report earnings that surpass expectations even if only by a few pennies. By and large, though, these reports will show either an absolute drop from the September quarter of 2021 or, at best, a slowing of revenue and earnings growth. Key to the market’s reaction will be what these companies say about expectations for the next quarter or two. Will they emphasize what are already clear slowdowns in PC and smartphone sales? Will they speak to the elephant in the room–the U.S/China trade war? Will they say that a strong dollar plus inflation is cutting into sales outside the United States and U.S. sales to domestic customers who are showing signs of “price fatigue”?
October 19, 2022 | Millennial, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
I hate to do this. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the premier chip manufacturer in the world and I see the company continuing to grow revenue from the increasing demand for smaller and more powerful chips. And I certainly hate to sell a stock that’s down 46% for the year to date as of the close on October 18. Under ordinary circumstances, I would hold on and ride out the current slump in the semiconductor cycle. After all, we’ve been here before, right? Except that the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility that China will look for a confrontation over Taiwan make the current circumstances anything but “ordinary.”
October 14, 2022 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, TFC |
I don’t like the economic and financial environment looming ahead for banks. I see bad loans rising with a need to reserve more against bad loans. Slowing economies aren’t good for loan demand or credit card delinquencies either. So I’m taking advantage of this moment to sell Truist Financial out of this portfolio in spite of the stock’s hefty dividend. I’ve got a loss on this position of 4.07% since I added it to this portfolio on June 13, 2022. The stock is down 22.19% for 2022 to date as of the close on October 12.
October 12, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GOOG, Volatility |
I’m adding Puts on Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG) to my Volatility Portfolio today as insurance against a big market dip on a bad (as in high) Consume Price Index inflation number tomorrow, October 13, and against selling in the shares of these two stocks on their earnings reports on October 27 and October 25, respectively.
October 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, TSLA, Volatility |
Even before the Biden administration launched a new U.S./China trade war by imposing restrictions on U.S. exports of advanced chip technology, Tesla (TSLA) was facing a sales slowdown in China. Now, with what I regard as the near certainty that Tesla will be one of the choice targets in any Chinese retaliation, I think it’s time to sell Tesla and get out of the way of what looks like a truly nasty tit-for-tat war of sanctions and restrictions. Tomorrow, October 12, I’m selling Tesla out of my Volatility Portfolio with a loss of 63.74% since I added it to the portfolio on November 10, 2021, near what would turn out to be the high before the onset of today’s Bear Market for technology stocks.
October 11, 2022 | ASML, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
Today I’m selling ASML Holding (ASML) out of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. My take on Asmel hasn’t changed: this is one of the key chip equipment companies in the drive to produce smaller and denser chips. What has changed in the market and the global economy. I think that technology, and especially chip stocks, are in a downtrend that has a lot longer to run. And that recent U.S. restrictions on advanced chip technology exports to China will set off a trade war that will come down heavily on companies such as ASML.
October 10, 2022 | AAPL, AMD, ASML, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSLA |
If you liked the Trump administration’s trade war with China, you’ll love the Biden administration’s new, more dangerous, escalated version. Rather than slapping tariffs on Chinese goods, and inviting retaliatory tariffs by China on American products, the Biden administration war limits the same of advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment to Chines companies. The action is aimed straight at the heart of China’s efforts to build its own chip industry. And it plays right into a belief, stoked by China’s President Xi Jinping, that China is the victim of a Western plot to prevent the country’s rise to its rightful place in the global order. And the opening blows in this trade war come just as President Xi aims to be installed as China’s newest preeminent leader with a status near that of Mao. I don’t know what the retaliation from China will be, but it is unlikely to stop with a few restrictions on how U.S. companies, such as Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL) operate in China. The situation is so dangerous because it is so uncertain and so open-ended.
October 6, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, INTC, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
After the close today October 6, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ) announced that its preliminary estimate of revenue for the third quarter would be just $5.6 million. That’s well below Wall Street forecasts of $6.71 billion.
October 6, 2022 | Daily JAM, QCOM, Top 50 Stocks |
Today, October 6, I made Qualcomm the #6 Pick in my 10 Perfect Stocks Special Report. As of October 7, I will be adding Qualcomm to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
