With sell of Apple tomorrow I’ll start to unwind my end of the year rally buys

With sell of Apple tomorrow I’ll start to unwind my end of the year rally buys

January 4, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Volatility | 3 comments

When I bought shares of Apple (AAPL) in my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios, I was looking for gains from the end of the year rally (which kind of fizzed out) and the traditional Santa Claus rally (which came through as expected) to drive shares higher in the short term. Since that November 23, 2021 pick, shares of Apple, as of the close today January 4, were up 12% to $179.70, just above my $179 target price for this short-term trade.

Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)

Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)

December 8, 2021 | CHPT, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NKTR, Short Term | 4 comments

With the VIX “fear index” falling back closer to “normal” levels–it dropped to 21.89 yesterday from 31.12 on December 1–it sure feels like the extreme volatility of the end of November and early December is on the ebb. The move to yesterday’s 21.89 close from December 1 was was a surge of 30% in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index in a week. This move away from panic follows on a jump in the “fear index” in the week from November 24 to December 1 of 67% in the opposite direction. I’d be surprised if we don’t see another surge in volatility in the rest of December or in January with what promises to be a crazy earnings season, but even if volatility holds at something like today’s level–slightly elevated from the historical averages but in the rough ballpark–don’t forget that volatility has a long tail. Volatility, in fact, creates volatility. And not least of all in individual stocks.

There looks to be enough fuel for the Santa Claus rally

Back to the races: S&P 500 up 2.08% this morning as Omicron fears abate

December 7, 2021 | AAPL, AMAT, ASML, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, NXPI | 1 comment

Here we go again. It’s not that we really have any more information about the Omicron Variant–we certainly don’t know what its effects will be on global economic acuity–but just as fears that the Covid-19 variant would send the world back into lockdown crushed stocks last week, this morning, December 7, a belief that Omicron won’t be all that bad has taken root and stocks are soaring in morning action.

Federal Reserve’s Powell stops calling inflation “transitory” and stocks tank–except for Apple

Federal Reserve’s Powell stops calling inflation “transitory” and stocks tank–except for Apple

November 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing | 0 comments

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell retired the word “transitory” to describe stubbornly high inflation in testimony today in front of the Senate Banking Committee. And, Powell continued, the Fed might accelerate the pace at which it is winding down its purchase of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets. “It is appropriate, I think, for us to discuss at our next meeting, which is in a couple of weeks, whether it will be appropriate to wrap up our purchases a few months earlier.” The Fed is currently scheduled to complete its asset-purchase program in mid-2022