August 23, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
My one-hundred-and-sixty-eighth YouTube video Trend of the Week: “3 Tech Stocks for the Next Wave of Products” went up today. Tech has been hammered as of late, but there will always be new innovations and new products emerging to give these companies in this sector a long and profitable future–after this Bear Market is over. In this video, I look at why AAPL, AMD, and QCOM have solid growth stories based on new products in the pipeline.
August 17, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NXPI, TSM |
The chip boom is over–or at least coming to an end. Gartner has cut its outlook for revenue growth in 2022 to just 7.4%. That’s down from a forecast of 14% growth for chip revenue three months ago. Garner sees chip revenue falling 2.5% in 2023. And you don’t have to take the word of market watchers at Gartner.
August 10, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, DAL, Jubak Picks, MLM |
Despite today’s CPI inflation bounce and the continuation (flagging but still in business) of July’s Bear Market rally, my goal is still to sell into rallies. I don’t think this Bear Market is over and done with. I see another down leg when investors and traders admit that the Federal Reserve isn’t going to be able to get inflation under control with just another 100 basis points of interest rate increases (and, the other part of this hopeful scenario, to begin cutting interest rates by the middle of 2023.) So I’ll be making three sells today out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio to take advantage of the CPI bounce.
August 9, 2022 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
First, it was Nvidia (NVDA) cutting its guidance for revenue and earnings due on August 24. Today, August 9, it was Micron Technology (MU) warning that its revenue for the fourth-quarter revenue may come in at or below the bottom end of a forecast range provided in the company’s earnings call on June 30. Micron is scheduled to report on September 27. All this comes as the market is on edge anyway ahead of tomorrow’s report on CPI inflation. As of the close on Tuesday, August 9, shares of Micro Technology were down 3.74%. Shares of Nvidia were down another 3.97% after closing down 6.30% yesterday.
August 1, 2022 | Daily JAM |
I ended my recent post “This looks like the Bear Market rally I’ve been waiting for” on my subscription JubakAM.com site by saying “Enjoy the ride but look to sell shares of companies that look most exposed to the return of recession/high interest rates/inflation worries. That post had been up for all of 18 minutes before I got the perfectly reasonable question “Like what?” And I promised an answer so here are my preliminary thoughts on what I’d look to sell in a Bear Market rally
July 22, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
We’ve had a great one-week rally/bounce/whatever in chip stocks. Nvidia, for example, was up 17.42% for the week that ended on Thursday, July 21. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was up 8.71% in that same period. But I think there are good reasons for thinking that this move was just a very short-term gain in a long-term Bear Market that remains in place. So today, I’m taking some chip money off the table.
July 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
In the last week Technology stocks, and chip stocks in particular, have staged a very impressive rally off of a really low base. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, is up 17.43% in the week that ended on July 21. That still leaves the stock down 39.43% for the year. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 15.36% in the last week. And it’s still down 37.85% for 2022. Qualcomm (QCOM) is up 1.85% for the week. And down 16.26% for the year. Impressive. But I’d be more inclined to see this as a sustainable rally if stocks were rising across the board–with tech and chips leading the way, perhaps.
Instead what I’m seeing is a rotation from safe and less risky stocks
July 20, 2022 | AMD, ASML, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
The Chips for America Act looks headed to a cloture vote in the Senate on Thursday. As the $52 billion bill now stands, it includes $39 billion for semiconductor companies to “build, expand, or modernize domestic facilities.” Here are the winners as I see them.
July 19, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, NVDA |
The bill, known as the Chips for America Act, is a pared-down version of a broader set of competition measures and would authorize $52 billion in grants and loans for chip manufacturers, as well as a new, four-year 25% investment tax credit for chip making. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has pressed for a vote today with final passage as early as next week.
May 3, 2022 | AMD, Daily JAM, Volatility |
After the close on May 3, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported first-quarter earnings of $1.13 a share, excluding some items. Wall Street analysts had projected earnings of 92 cents a share for the quarter. Sales rose 71% to $5.9 billion, topping projections of $5.3 billion. The results pushed shares up 9.10% in trading on May 4.
April 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Here’s what caught my eye yesterday, April 18. For a big change from recent losses, the chip group of stocks was all in the green. And not just by a pinch either. Yesterday Nvidia (NVDA) was up 2.47%: NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) was up 1.91%; Synaptics (SYNA) was up 4.49%; and Qualcomm (QCOM) was up 1.76%. Is something going on in the sector?
April 5, 2022 | AMD, C, Daily JAM, KBWB, Long Term, NVDA, Special Reports, WFC |
I think these financial market curves will let you map out the longer stories of Federal Reserve interest rate increases and a potential recession–and then chart the shorter stories of war in the Ukraine, global oil and natural gas crunches, summer Pandemic relief, global food crisis, computer chip shortages (and whatever else you think might be important) under those longer curves. That will let you decide when to buy and sell (and what) in order to profit from short-term stories while preparing your portfolio for the longer arcs.
