On Monday I’m looking for a test of key market narratives. After Friday’s big bounce, we could see the return of the “buy on the dip” narrative. Or the FOMO, fear of missing out, narrative. Or the market has bottomed narrative. Or the “it was just a bounce; let the selling resume” narratives. These narratives are important because money follows each story line.
Today, March 17, the stocks, and especially the technology stocks, that have been pummeled in 2022 continued their three-day bounce. For another day, at least, buy on the dip proved to be a very profitable adventure. Lithium recycling startup LiCycle (LICY), for example, gained 10.18% after climbed 6.74% on Wednesday, March 16. Electronic payments platform Block (SQ), formerly known as Prince (no, I mean formerly known as Square) rose 10.26% after picking up 12.57% on Wednesday, March 16. Cybersecurity newcomer SentinelOne (S) climbed 7.48% after a gain of 13.47% on March 16. Stocks like these (and many more) were just too cheap traders decided. But there were signs of, possibly (and we’ve been down this road before so let’s just say “possibly”), of a new caution. A sell on the bounce caution.
Take a look at Peloton Interactive (PTON) and Netflix (NFLX) just in case you need a reminder of one of the essential characteristics of this stock market. One that makes it so hard to tell where the market as a whole is going, and what individual stocks are headed up or down (and often down big time.) What growth rate should an investor use in trying to value the stock? Who knows? Which is exactly the point and not a problem limited to Peloton in this economy. I’ve found a handful of stocks with reliable internal growth stories that make them great buy-on-the-dip candidates for over performance in the second half of 2022. I’m making three of those stocks–Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)–my last 3 picks for my Special Report
If not now, when?
When I checked the prices on the 25 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter at the close on December 10, a substantial group had dropped from the November 28 price. Nvidia (NVDA), for example had moved down to $301.98 from $315.03 on November 28. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was down to $138.55 from $154.81. Tesla (TSLA) had retreated to $1017.03 from $1081.92 on November 28. Time to buy? Not yet, in my opinion. And how about for other stocks in my 25 buy on the dip candidates?
After a huge rally like we’re had this year, it’s easy to fall into one of the most common buy on the dip traps. Just because a stock is cheaper than it was, it’s not necessarily a bargain. There’s nothing that says a stock has to return to its previous price after a dip. And especially that it has to return to that former price on your schedule. Let me use Disney (DIS), one of the stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter, as an example.
Oddly, the big sell off on Friday hasn’t created as many buys among the 25 stocks in the Dip-O-Meter as you might expect. Part of the reason is that the run up in stock prices in 2021 has been so fast that many stocks are still way above the 2021 lows. It’s hard to call Nvidia (NVDA), for example, a buy on the dip opportunity when the stock even Friday’s 3.58% drop to $315.03, is still way above the 200-day moving average at $190.81. Part of the reason is that, in my opinion, we’re looking at some negative trends in the economy, from the resurgence in Covid infections, and from inflation/interest rates/the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2022. Do you really feel in a rush to buy Disney at $148.11 after Friday’s 2.13% drop to $148.11 when it looks like park attendance is going to get slammed again by the Pandemic? Or MGM Resorts International (MGM)? Part of the reason is that existing negative trends haven’t bottomed out. Volkswagen (VWAPY) doesn’t look like a bargain at $18.50 after Friday’s selling because China’s auto market remains in turmoil, for example. Same with Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) on slumping global copper demand. Which doesn’t mean I’ve got nothing to recommend for buying after Friday.
After Friday’s panic selling, I’m working to update the Dip-O-Meter in a search for buy on the dip bargains. I expect to post that update later tonight in time for the market open tomorrow, Monday.
Back in October when I made Oatly Group (OTLY) the No. 4 pick in my Buy on the Dip Special Report, I advised waiting until after the company’s November 15 earnings report because there was a good chance that the company would miss estimates and disappoint on guidance. Exactly. Today the company did both and the stock dropped 20.8% on the day. That’s a big one-day plunge, especially since even before today’s beating the stock was down 59% formats June 11, 2021 high. I think it’s safe to say that much of the risk is now out of these shares
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixty-seventh YouTube video “7 Picks for a Confused Market” went up today.
Yesterday I picked Tesla (TSLA) as No. 14 in my Buy on the Dip Special Report. I put the stock in a group along with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) that I called Buy on the Regret. These were stocks that lots of investors who didn’t yet own wanted to own and would bid up at the the least opportunity. But I wrote yesterday, I thought Tesla shares had been pounded so hard in the last few days that I quick reversal was unlikely. I’d prefer to buy when I’d seen shares stabilize or drift high. Wrong. Which is why they play the game and not simply decide who wins by comparing the lineups. Today Tesla shares closed up 4.34% on the day.
I never quite got around to adding my #14 pick to my post yesterday on my last three picks for by Buy on the Dip strategies. Here, today, it is. Tesla.
I wouldn’t call the Glasgow Global Climate Summit, which wraps up on November 12, a failure. The pledge to reduce methane emissions is an important step forward: Methane is an extremely powerful global warming gas. And the promise of a big step up in global reforestation is also a solid contribution to the fight to keep the earth habitable for human beings. But I think it is safe to say that the progress out of the conference isn’t enough. Which is why I’m adding shares of General Holdings (GNRC) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on Monday, November 8.
