I got these two key China trends wrong: Selling  BABA and TCEHY

I got these two key China trends wrong: Selling BABA and TCEHY

When I added Alibaba (BABA) to my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on April 29, 2022, and Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) to my Volatility Portfolio on January 3, 2022, I thought two things were about to happen in China. First, I thought that the People’s Bank would unleash enough stimulus to more than compensate for the slowdown in China’s economy. And, second, I thought that we’d seen the end of the regulatory crackdown on China’s big entrepreneurial technology companies. I got both trends wrong.

I’m selling my Nvidia Put options today on the stock’s two-day drop

I’m selling my Nvidia Put options today on the stock’s two-day drop

It’s hard making a profit on volatility trades in a market that’s as volatile as this one.

You’ve got to get the direction right, the timing, and the price. Miss one and get the other two and you can still wind up in the red. Which is where I find myself on the Nvidia Put Options (NVDA220819P00165000) I bought in my Volatility Portfolio on July 22 with a strike of $165 and an expiration date of August 19.

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news: I’m selling ChargePoint out of my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow, August 9

Buy on the rumor, sell on the news: I’m selling ChargePoint out of my Volatility Portfolio tomorrow, August 9

As I referenced in my post “What to sell and when in this Bear Market Rally,” I’m applying the old Wall Street advice of buy on the rumor and sell on the news to electric vehicle charging stocks. Specifically to ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT)Like just about any stock associated with controlling global climate change, ChargePoint soared ahead on the surprise deal that revived “green spending” in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. There’s money in that bill for promoting electric vehicles and for solar and wind power. (And let’s not forget big bucks for hydrogen power, too.) That bill has now passed the Senate (amazingly) and looks almost certain to pass the House of Representatives, where Speak Nancy Pelosi can, I think, be counted on to hold her slim majority together. Which means all that potential spending good news for stocks in this sector is now out there.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Majestic Silver

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick First Majestic Silver

My one-hundred-and-sixty-first YouTube video “Quick Pick First Majestic Silver” went up today. This hasn’t been a great year for precious metals hedges. However, allow me to make the case for First Majestic Silver (AG), given the coming recession and my expectations for the Fed’s schedule of rate increases. A hedge for 2023? At the current price, it’s an attractive bit of insurance against a big surge in risk.

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

We’ve had a great one-week rally/bounce/whatever in chip stocks. Nvidia, for example, was up 17.42% for the week that ended on Thursday, July 21. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was up 8.71% in that same period. But I think there are good reasons for thinking that this move was just a very short-term gain in a long-term Bear Market that remains in place. So today, I’m taking some chip money off the table.

Time to take some chip money off the table–in the short run

Rally or rotation? I vote for rotation

In the last week Technology stocks, and chip stocks in particular, have staged a very impressive rally off of a really low base. Nvidia (NVDA), for example, is up 17.43% in the week that ended on July 21. That still leaves the stock down 39.43% for the year. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is up 15.36% in the last week. And it’s still down 37.85% for 2022. Qualcomm (QCOM) is up 1.85% for the week. And down 16.26% for the year. Impressive. But I’d be more inclined to see this as a sustainable rally if stocks were rising across the board–with tech and chips leading the way, perhaps.
Instead what I’m seeing is a rotation from safe and less risky stocks

Adding Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund ETF to three portfolios

Adding Invesco Dollar Bullish Fund ETF to three portfolios

In my July 7 YouTube video: “Quick Pick UUP” I added the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio. (To replace the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) in that portfolio. More on that in another post today.) Today I’m also going to add this dollar ETF to my Volatility Portfolio and to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. I’m setting a target price of $33.20 in the Jubak Picks Portfolio. You should take the fact that I’m adding a dollar position to three portfolios as an indication of how strongly I feel about a continued strong dollar.

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Cheniere Energy

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Cheniere Energy

My Quick Pick this week is Cheniere Energy (LNG), a liquified natural gas producer that I currently own in my Volatility Portfolio on JubakAM.com and plan to add to my Jubak Picks portfolio as well. The stock has fallen as U.S. natural gas prices have taken a hit after a fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas facility that has caused a backup in U.S. LNG exports. I think it’s a great time to get in on this long-term story at Cheniere, which just announced that it had given the go-ahead to the construction of a new LNG chain at its Corpus Christi facility. That chain won’t be in operation until 2025 but I see the demand for U.S. LNG continuing to rise through then.

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas–update

Please watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas–update

My one-hundred-and-forty-sixth YouTube video “Quick Pick U.S. Natural Gas Fund–update” went up today. The fire at the Freeport Liquified Natural Gas facility has disrupted U.S exports of natural gas. That’s resulted in a short-term glut in U.S. markets and what I think is a short-term buying opportunity for long-term gains in natural gas and this fund. Especially with winter and its surge in natural gas use just a few months away.