April 30, 2021 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Friday Trick or Trend, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, WH |
When it comes down to company earnings, we’re seeing a huge lag in revenue growth for companies in the service sector. Wyndham Hotels and Resorts (WH),for example, which reported first quarter results today, April 30, saw revenue fall to $303 million in the first quarter of 2021 from $410 in the first quarter of 2020. But, and I think this is the clear implication of the first quarter GDP numbers, those service companies will close that gap in the June quarter as companies open more services–Disney (DIS) opened its California theme parks today, for example–and consumers feel safer in going to theme parks or restaurants or gyms.
April 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The value of all domestically produced goods and services has almost recovered to the pre-pandemic high recorded by the fourth quarter of 2019 of an inflation adjusted annualized $19.3 trillion but the U.S. stock market has raced well ahead of that recovery. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 29.3% from the end of 2019 to the close on April 29.
April 30, 2021 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
Data from Refinitiv published yesterday show that companies are beating estimates at a historic rate and that the amount by which they are beating projections is also at a historic high. Of the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies reporting so far, 86.8% have beat Wall Street projections. The average beat is a huge 23.5%. According to Refinitiv (where data goes back to 1994) that’s the highest percentage of companies to beat estimates for a quarter on record and also the largest average beat on record. Three things to think about.
April 29, 2021 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
After the close yesterday, April 29, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a key Apple supplier and a maker of radio frequency chips for smartphones and WiFi networking equipment, reported earnings of $2.37 a share on sales of $1.17 billion for quarter that closed on April 2 2021. That beat–slightly–Wall Street projections for earnings of $2.35 a share and sales of $1.15 billion. Year over year Skyworks earnings climbed 77% and sales rose by 53%. And what happened to the stock in after-hours trading? It got punished. Shares dropped to $183.37, a loss of $14.49 a share from the day’s close at $197.86. That’s a loss of 7.32%. In a market driven by expectations for constantly higher growth, I think you can see the problem.
April 29, 2021 | Daily JAM, GOOG, OMC, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-first YouTube video “3 Ad Picks But Not Google or Facebook” went up today.
April 29, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
In the first quarter the economy grew by 1.6%. That’s equal to an annualized growth rate of 6.4% for U.S. GDP. You don’t have to look hard to find the cause. Consumer spending rose 2.6 percent in the first three months of the year, with a 5.4% increase in spending on goods accounting for most of the growth. Americans increased spending on cars, furniture, recreational vehicles and other long-lasting items, as well as on clothes and food
April 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term |
Speculation, informed and otherwise, is that in his address to Congress tonight, President Joe Biden will propose raising the top income tax rate to 39.6% from the current 37%. And (this is the one that sticks in Wall Street’s craw) raising the tax on long-term capital gains to 39.6% for tax payers with an income above $1 million. The current rate on long-term capital gains is 20%. (There’s a tax surcharge from the Affordable Care Act that raises the effect capital gains tax rate to 23.8% currently. With that surcharge the proposed new rate would be 43.4%) What does this mean for your portfolio–assuming that you’re not one of those making more than $1 million a year?
April 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, FCX, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Copper has rallied–again–to a new 10-year high and that has taken Freeport McMoRan Copper and Gold to $39.53 today, April 28, as of 3:50 p.m.. That’s above my target price in my Jubak Picks Portfolio of $34. So today I’m selling this position. The stock is up 39.34% as of 3:50 p.m. New York time since I added it to the portfolio on January 6, 2021. I still have substantial exposure to copper through my positions in Southern Copper (SCCO) in my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio and in my Dividend Portfolio.
April 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, ISRG, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks |
Today, April 28, I’m selling Intuitive Surgical out of my Jubak Picks Portfolio with a 9.39% gain since February 15. I think the shares are fully valued here (or perhaps over-valued if there is such a thing anymore in this market) and I’d like to have some more cash just in case”something” creates a little volatility in the financial markets.
April 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, MSFT |
Great wasn’t good enough for a stock that had climbed 10.6% in the last month, 17.84% for 2021 as of the close on April 26, and 51.07% in the last year. And Microsoft shares fell in after-hours trading after reporting earnings and revenue above Wall Street estimates. Does the drop set the stage for other BIG TECH stock reporting this week–Alphabet (GOOG) today, Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) tomorrow, and Amazon (AMZN) on Thursday.
April 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, VXRT |
As of 2 p.m. New York time, Vaxart (VXRT), a biotech developing a coronavirus vaccine in a pill, was up 48.26% to $9.04. It closed up 37.46% The stock had traded 151 million shares as of 2 p.m., about 11 times the average volume over the last 60 days. I think what we’re seeing is another one of those speculative moves built on a possible news event–Vaxart has announced a webinar for May 3 that is expected to include the release of new Phase 1 data on the efficacy of its Cover-19 vaccine in a pill–plus a plausible story–a vaccine in a pill would be exactly what India needs to stop its current pandemic surge and a vaccine in a pill would be helpful in convincing some of the vaccine hesitant to get vaccinated (no needle)–plus a big short position. According to Seeking Alpha short positions account for about 20.4% of total outstanding shares.
April 26, 2021 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Special Reports |
Today’s Part 1 is a kind of over view of the state of the art in global climate change accounting. With my suggestions about what principles you should bring to understanding this “information.” Part 2 will take off from this conclusions in Part 1 to try to prioritize opportunities for investing–at a profit–in the battle to control global climate change. Part 3 will use Part 1 and Part 2 to build a portfolio of 10 stocks where I’d put money today given what we can see of the course of that battle over the next decade. So let’s start with Part 1 on how to read the numbers.
