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Manufacturing report raises fears on when, how often the Fed will cut interest rates

Manufacturing report raises fears on when, how often the Fed will cut interest rates

Could it be just two interest rate cuts in 2024 instead of three (or four as the most bullish wish)? The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index showed U.S. factory activity unexpectedly expanding in March for the first time since September 2022 on a sharp rebound in production and stronger demand. Even worse, for those counting on early and often cuts from the Fed, input costs, AKA inflation, climbed.

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First quarter surprise: Tech didn’t lead the market

First quarter surprise: Tech didn’t lead the market

The results are in. And, surprise the technology sector didn’t lead the market in the first quarter. In fact the 8.8% gain for the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK), which tracks the S&P 500’s information technology sector, trailed the 10% gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. And several other sectors outperformed the XLK ETF.

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Special Report It’s a New World for Dividend Income Investors Pick #5 Visa

Special Report It’s a New World for Dividend Income Investors Pick #5 Visa

Bookkeeping. I added Visa as Pick #5 for my New World of Dividend Investors Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it.

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Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Tech CEOs Calling a Top in This Market?

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Tech CEOs Calling a Top in This Market?

Today’s video is Tech CEOs Calling a Top in This Market? The Financial Times just did a story about tech CEOs insider buying and selling. During the first quarter of 2024, the ratio of insider selling vs. insider buying has climbed to heights not seen since the first quarter of 2021. Amazon’s CEO Jeff Bezos, sold about $135 million of Amazon stock and Peter Thiel, cofounder of Palantir Technologies, sold $175 million worth of stock in March. Why? There could be a few reasons for these sales. During the rally at the end of 2023, many investors put off selling until 2024 to delay capital gains taxes and we’re seeing that selling demand now. Additionally, these tech CEOs have tremendous amounts of their wealth tied up in one asset, and in order to diversify, they must sell some of those shares. But CEOs could be selling because they feel this market is near a top. The fear that we’re in a bubble like that in the dot com era has been nagging investors and these sales by tech CEOs are contributing to that fear. I think we’re likely to be still a year or more away from a top in this rally. I don’t expect to start to hear a negative narrative about AI until 2025 or 2026. New technology takes a while to work through the system and I think around 2025-2026 companies will notice that their new AI technologies haven’t yet produced the returns they hoped on the schedule they imagined and the market will start to react. That will be the time for a sell off. And for long term investors to buy on any excessive selling, (Remember how long it took before the massive investment in PCs started to drop to bottom lines.) In the meantime, I don’t see a bubble popping in 2024 and while this news from tech CEOs doesn’t make me feel better, I do think it’s important to recognize that tech CEOs have reasons to sell now that don’t have much of anything do with your portfolio’s risk portfolio.

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Apple shareholders looking at an even more volatile six months–buy, sell, or hold (and when)

Apple shareholders looking at an even more volatile six months–buy, sell, or hold (and when)

Apple is likely to take its shareholders on an even wilder ride in the next six months than they’ve been on since the December all-time high at $199.62. The end result, I think is likely to be a renewed rally beginning in the fall–if you can either hold on through the volatility until then or see your way clear to timing when to buy and sell.

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Counter-counter-attack from Viking Therapeutics in the GLP-1 diabetes/weight loss drug war

Counter-counter-attack from Viking Therapeutics in the GLP-1 diabetes/weight loss drug war

First, it was Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) on the attack with trial results that shows its GLP-1 dibetes/weight loss drug out performing current leader of the pack drugs fro Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY). On the news Viking soared.

Then Novo Nordisk struct back with data of its own showing progress on an oral formulation of its rugs. (All existing GLP-1 drugs are delivered by injection.) That cratered Viking Shares. Now, March 26, Viking has released new Phase 1 trial data from a multiple ascending dose study of the oral version of VK2735, a dual agonist of the glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptors.

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Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Hot Button Moves NOW Buy CMG

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Hot Button Moves NOW Buy CMG

Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is Buy Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Chipotle announced it will  be spitting 50 to 1. With the stock , currently trading at $2800 the split will bring in a new group of investors. The stock popped about 3.5% the day following the announcement and continued to go up in the following days. It’s contrary to modern capital market theory that a stock announcing a split should go up, but it does need happen. Chipotle has a great long term story. It not only survived the COVID pandemic, but the company drove its digital loyalty membership up to 36 million people and added digital drive-thru lanes, leading to extraordinary growth. Chipotle had a 38% increase in earnings in 2023 and an 8% increase in comparable store sales. That, along with a 26% operating margin, continues to make Chipotle one o the most compelling consumer stocks to own,. I think owning this before the split, which will likely be approved in June, will get you appreciation from the pop on the split, as well as long term gains from this well-run company.  Tomorrow I’ll be adding these shares to my lot-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.

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Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Digital Realty Trust

Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Digital Realty Trust

Today’s Quick Pick is Digital Realty Trust (DLR). This dividend stock, currently pays at 3.46% (previously a bit higher) but the stock has done well on price appreciation too. This is a different way to play the AI boom–by investing in the data center realty space. Data centers are the hottest part of the real estate market at the moment and AI data center capacity is likely to double in the next 6-10 years. Digital Realty has about 300 data centers worldwide with 40 million square feet of rentable space. They recently made a deal with Brookfield in order to raise more capital to build out more facilities and expand their business. The stock is up only about 5.6% year to date which isn’t great if you’re looking at the AI boom. It is up 43% over the last year but recent guidance from the company disappointed investors. The “meh” stock performance recently marks a good time to get in on a stock that has good dividends and a potential for capital appreciation when growth picks up again. The stock has been a member of my Dividend Portfolio since March 16, 2019. The shares are up 161% since then as of March 25. 

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