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Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves NOW! The dollar
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is U.S. Dollar. The dollar has been on a good run and is up 7% in the last three months, 2% in the last month. I expect this to continue with higher tariffs, and a Fed that will remain steady while other currencies are seeing more volatility. To get in on this you can buy an ETF like Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP), currently up 10.19% YTD with a 75 basis point expense ratio. Another option would be the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), up about 11% YTD with a 50 basis point expense ratio. WisdomTree buys Treasuries while Invesco uses futures but both are similarly sized ETFs and good ways to play the US dollar.
Trade war with Canada could be really nasty
Canada is looking at imposing taxes on major commodities it exports to the United States-—including uranium, oil and potash—if the incoming Trump Administration carries out a threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports.
So much for that easy fix to China’s consumer economy
China’s retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in November. Retail sales rose 3% from a year ago. That was the the slowest annual growth rate in three months and it was well below even the most bearish forecast.
Just last week Chinese policymakers elevated boosting consumption to the top priority for next year. That marked , only the second time in a decade that the consumer economy was the focus of official policy.
Special Report: Buys and sells–and other money moves for Trump’s first 100 days. The complete 100 Days
What you need as an investor and what your portfolio needs is a road map to the likely events of the beginning of this new administration. And a take on what those events are likely to mean for the financial markets–and the prices of stocks and bonds. And recommendations on what moves to make to respond to the events of the first 100 days of a Trump Administration. Which is what this Special Report is all about. Here /i’ll give you an investor’s calendar to the first 100 days of Trump; a run-down of the likely effects on the financial markets of the events in the first 100 days; and recommendations for moves that you should make with your portfolio.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect
When the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate move and it’s Dot Plot projections on future interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, it will be the Dot Plot projections that matter to the financial markets.
CPI inflation creeps higher in November
Inflation remains stubborn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That was hotter than a 2.6% rise in October. But that matched economists forecasts. It was also above September’s 2.4% annual rate. On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, the biggest gain since April. Prices for housing, energy, and particularly food all rose.
CPI core inflation, prices excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose another 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The are rate was up 3.3% for the year. For the past six months, core inflation has been stuck at an elevated level above the Fed’s target of 2%.
I’m adding LNG to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
On Monday, December 9, I added Cheniere Energy (LNG) to my Special Report “10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally” and added it to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. Here’s what I wrote then:
Watch my new YouTube video: Quick Pick LNG
Today’s Quick Pick is Cheniere Energy, (LNG). Cheniere liquifies natural gas and sells it globally. The stock is up about 32% YTD. The company is about to put seven more units of natural gas production on line, and it looks like they’ll be selling and distributing that gas, as scheduled, by the end of the year. This will mean more revenue from an actual plant producing more LNG, not the idea or a theory that more gas will maybe be put out soon. The incoming Trump Administration will be light on regulation for natural gas and there is rising demand from data centers looking to guarantee their own energy needs. I already own the stock but if I didn’t I’d certainly be adding it to my portfolio right now.
Politburo signals big boost to China’s economy
Words count. And they move stocks when they come from China’s President Xi Jinping and the Politburo ahead of the March session of parliament that will set the budget–and stimulus spending for the year. The words? The Politburo vowed to embrace a “moderately loose” monetary policy in 2025, according to the official Xinhua News Agency. That’s a huge shift from the “prudent” strategy that’s held for nearly 14 years. The last time China adopted a “moderately loose” monetary policy was in the Global Financial Crisis as part of a big stimulus package to prop up the economy.
Consumer debt soared in October–are consumers trying to beat the Trump tariffs?
U.S. consumer credit rose by $19.2 billion in October, smashing through the $10.1 billion consensus forecast. And surging from $3.2 billion in September, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday. One in three Americans are stockpiling daily necessities like toilet paper and non-perishable food out of fear that President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to add tariffs to imported goods will lead to higher prices, according to a new survey by CreditCards.com
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
All eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index inflation report for November due out on the morning of Wednesday, December 11. It’s the last big inflation data dump before the Federal Reserve meets on December 18.
U.S. electricity demand set to soar–this is a very big deal
U.S. electricity demand could rise by128 gigawatts over the next five years, driven by data centers and manufacturing growth primarily in six regions of the country, according to a report published Thursday by Grid Strategies. That result is a five-fold increase in electric demand load forecasts from estimates just two years ago.
Jobs report locks in one more rate cut from the Fed
The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday morning, December 6. In addition, revisions added 56,000 jobs to the totals for October and September. Which adds up to a strong recovery from the shocking low 12,000 new jobs initially reported for October. Initial analysis that the almost non-existant growth for October was due to hurricanes and strikes now looks correct. At the same time, the unemployment rate, which is calculated in a survey separate from that which produces the jobs total, ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%. The jobs total and the unemployment rate were broadly expected by economists. The complete picture is of an economy showing a continued modest expansion. In my opinion, that’s enough to lead to a 25 basis point cut at its December 18 meeting in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark short-term interest rate from the current range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The CME FedWatch took today put the odds od a 25 basis point cut at the December meeting at 85.1%. That’s up from 66% odds a week ago
Watch my new YouTube video: What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong?
Today’s video is What if the economic consensus on tariffs is wrong? It would be really bad news for stocks. The current consensus among economists is that tariffs will be inflationary as companies pass on rising prices to consumers. However, as Nir Kaissar recently wrote in an opinion piece for Bloomberg, this may not be correct. He used McDonald’s as an example. In February, McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said that the fast food restaurant has been losing low-income customers–houseold income of $45,000 or less– as the cost of its meals has risen. The price of a Big Mac, for example, has risen 25% since 2019, even though the price of raw materials has not risen at that rate. The operating margin at the company gone up and Wall Street expects that to continue, even as the company has lost customers. The company announced that they’d be offering a new, low price menu in an effort to retain a larger low-income consumer base. If more companies go in the direction of cutting costs to retain customers rather than passing on the cost of tariffs to consumers, Wall Street will be in for a big, unwelcome surprise in earnings since the current analyst consensus looks for operating margins to continue to climb in 2025 and 2026. 2025 is sure to come with volatility and uncertainty until we have a better idea of how high and far reaching the tariffs will be, and how companies will respond to them.
“Drill, baby, drill”? OPEC doesn’t think so
Oil edged lower–West Texas Intermediate closed down 0.06% and Brent ended 0.08% lower–after OPEC+ announced plans to defer supply increases for three months, but still add barrels starting in April to a market that’s expected to be oversupplied. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to delay their planned output hike.
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