Jubak Picks
March 28, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, Videos, Volatility |
Don’t sell those oil stocks yet! Back at the beginning of the year, I anticipated that coming conflict between Russia and the Ukraine would drive up the price of oil, and the stocks I added to my portfoliohene stocks (COP, EQNR, LNG) have all been up big. But, I don’t think it’s time to sell yet. Why? Summer. Summer is the big driving season in the Northern Hemisphere, and right now (in what’s called the “shoulder season”) reserves of gasoline are supposed to be replenished in anticipation of summer. But that’s not happening due to Russia-Ukraine, and I think with summer we will see prices for oil spike even higher. That’s why I wouldn’t sell these stocks yet. (And that’s despite of the selling today, March 28, on more lockdowns in China)
March 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
With the war in Ukraine continuing its horrible grind and with economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and Europe including more and more of the global economy, I’ve been looking for ways to invest in higher commodity prices. My steps have included buying oil and natural gas stocks back at the end of January and adding the iPath Bloomberg Commodity ETN (DJP) back on a few days ago on March 23. That’s given me good exposure to trends pushing energy prices higher, but I also want to include more exposure to higher agricultural prices. So I’m adding the iPath Series B Bloomberg Agriculture Total Return ETN (JJA) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio
March 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, DJP, Jubak Picks |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fifteenth YouTube video “Quick Pick Agricultural Commodity ETN JJA” went up today. This week’s Quick Pick is an ETN that tracks agricultural commodities. What I’m looking for is a chance to buy commodities, particularly wheat and corn, in the midst of the Russia-Ukraine war. Don’t forget that these are two of the biggest regions for producing and shipping wheat and corn. And right now nothing in grain silos in Ukraine can get out across the Black Sea. This ETN has a decent expense ratio compared to competitors and is focused on food–no oil or natural gas. I’m adding it to my portfolios in complement to the DJP ETN, which does include those energy commodities.
March 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LULU, Stock Alerts |
Projections schedule a potential Recession for the second half of 2022 or 2023. Fears of that impending trend will begin to be felt in stock prices before that. The sector most likely to feel the effects of any Recession–and thus the sector most likely to first feel the anticipation of that Recession on stock prices–is what Standard & Poor’s calls Consumer Discretionary” stocks. (The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) tracks these stocks for the S&P 500 index.) In my YouTube video yesterday, I flagged three stocks in this sector to sell ahead of any potential Recession–Netflix (NFLX), Starbucks (SBUX), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU). Of these I said I would sell Lululemon first
March 25, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
The United States and Europe have reached an agreement to expand U.S. supplies of natural gas to Europe in an effort to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas.
Details are bit vague. And wishful thinking is a big ingredient. The basis problem is that Russia supplies Europe with 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year via pipelines. U.S. and other sources can’t match increase production to that level and the infrastructure to get the gas to Europe simply doesn’t exist. Yet the goal has now been put on paper and the agreement promises that Europe will get at least 15 billion cubic meters of additional LNG supplies by the end of the year. Even though it is not clear where the natural gas welcome from or how ti will be delivered.
March 24, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, LULU, Videos |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fourteenth YouTube video “Three Recession Sells” went up today.This week’s video takes a look at what I’m calling consumer discretionary companies and recommends that this kind of company should be your first sell as we head toward a Recession. These are places where consumers looking to save money in future economic downturn might cut back spending. I think Starbucks (SBUX), Lululemon (LULU), and Netflix (NFLX) are all stocks to avoid through the end of the year as we see a recession on the horizon. More coverage of this on my sites as well including 10 stocks to own during a Recession on my subscription JubakAM.com site.
March 23, 2022 | COP, Daily JAM, EQNR, Jubak Picks, LNG, PXD, Volatility |
Oil rallied again today with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate up 4.79% on the day to $114.79 a barrel and international benchmark Brent up 5.12% to $121.39 a barrel. So, natural, oil and gas equities stocks are up today. And the broader market is down. What else isn’t new?
March 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, DJP, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
How does the lyric go (as sung by Albert King)? “If it wasn’t for bad luck, I would have no luck at all.” Maybe that song should be the theme song for the global food market right now. This month China’s agriculture minister Tang Renjian told colleagues at a high-profile government meeting in Beijing this month: “China faces big difficulties in food production because of the unusual floods last autumn. Many faming experts and technicians told us that crop conditions this year could be the worst in history.”
March 21, 2022 | AA, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
Australia has banned alumina shipments to Russia in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The country is the source of 20% of the alumina used by Russia’s aluminum industry. Aluminum rose as much as 4.8% on the London Metal Exchange.The metal is now 25%for 2021. Shares of Alcoa (AA), which have been on a tear first on news of supply deficits and then on sanctions against Russian aluminum producers, gained 10.01% on Monday, March 21.
March 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My one-hundredth-and fifteenth YouTube video “Quick Pick Booking Holdings” went up today. This week’s Quick Pick is Booking Holdings (BKNG), the company that owns Priceline, Booking.com, Kayak, and a host of other travel booking sites. If you watched my video from yesterday, you’ll know I’ve been thinking about stocks to buy for the summer boom in travel. I think BKNG is a great story for that reason. They are major player in travel booking both domestically and internationally, with 30% of online travel bookings in the United States. Plus, since inflation will continue to stick around this summer (at least), bargain and discount sites will have even more users as travelers try to save money on trips.
March 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, FXI, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Perfect Five-ETFs, TCEHY, Top 50 Stocks |
Yesterday, March 15, I was thinking that I wished I didn’t own any China stocks at all. Today, March 16, I wished I owned more. Lot’s more.
March 15, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing |
Oil prices collapsed. And airlines reported better than expected pick up in traffic. So airline stocks soared with the most stressed operators showing the biggest gains in their shares. Delta Air Lines (DAL) closed up 8.70% on the day. United Airlines (ULA) picked up 9.19%. And American Airlines (AAL) gained 9.26%.
