Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick Visa (V)
Today I posted my 319th YouTube video: Quick Pick Visa. And I’ll be adding the stock to another of my portfolios.
Long Term
China economic growth hit official target in 2022, but population plunge accelerates
Well, what did you expect Chinese officials to talk about at Davos? Yesterday, Premier Li Qiang said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that China’s economy is expected to have grown 5.2% in 2023. Which would exceed the government’s target of “around 5%” set in March. Li’s estimate roughly agrees with the average 5.3% expected by economists. In 2022, China’s economy grew at a 3% rate.But also yesterday, the National Bureau of Statistics said that China’s population decline has accelerated.
Special Report: 10 Great Growth Stocks that Are Getting Greater–today my 10th (and final) pick QCOM
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #10: Qualcomm (QCOM). I think the market and the current stock price are missing a good prt of the growth story for Qualcomm. Which is why I find the stock undervalued enough to buy here. Right now the market disagrees. However, I’ll be adding the stock to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios on Tuesday, January 16.
Is the debt market ignoring the coming wave of bond supply?
Right now all that the bond market and indeed all the financial markets care about is when will the Federal Reserve begin to cut interest rates. The consensus is that sometime relatively soon–March or more likely June–the Fed will begin to deliver interest rate cuts that will total somewhere around 100 basis points (at least) for 2024. But what if the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world really aren’t in control of interest rates in the bond market anymore?
Progress of a sort: Wind sector troubles continue to unwind
I think this is good news, sort of, for the very troubled wind power sector.
Yesterday, January 3, Equinor (EQNR) and BP (BP) announced that they would terminate their contract and exit the 1.2 gigawatt Empire Wind 2 project off the coast of New York. Why is this good news?
Nvidia beats on earnings and revenue but falls short of highest expectations
Nvidia (NVDA) beat Wall Street expectations again. After the market close today, November 21, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.02 on revenue of $18.12 billion. Analysts had projected adjusted earnings per share of $3.36 and revenue of $16.1 billion.
If this is such a great economy, why did Cisco and Palo Alto just cut cut guidance for 2024?
More real world dissent to Wall Street’s view that everything looks great for 2024. On Thursday Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares closed down 9.83% after the networking giant offered up significantly weaker-than-expected guidance for 2024. Wall Street analysts called the guidance “disappointing.” And the same day cybersecurity favorite Palo Alto Networks (PANW) dropped 5.42% after the company lowered its billings forecast for the fiscal 2024 year.
Apple revenue falls again, warns holiday quarter will be flat
So let’s see how the market takes this tomorrow.
Today stocks staged an impressive upside more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day 1.78% higher. The small cap Russell 2000 was the day’s best performer with a win of 2.67% Tomorrow? Well, the October jobs report released at 8:30 will certainly help set the tone for the day with a weak report likely to reinforce the belief that the Federal Reserve is done aiding interest rates. But given how much of the recent bounce has been fueled by a return of optimism about technology stocks, it’s likely that Apple’s disappointing results, announced after the close of trading today, Thursday, November 2, will determine the direction of the trend.
We’re looking at a global debt bomb
“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Monty Python observed back in 1970 before attempting to torture a coal-miner’s wife with a dish rack. There’s an important investing version of this core truth: The financial market usually worries about the wrong problem. So that when the “Spanish Inquisition” (in financial terms) finally arrives, everybody is surprised. Well, we investors and traders have done it to ourselves again. We’ve spent much of 2022 and a good part of 2023 worrying about whether Federal Reserve interest rate increases would send the economy into a recession. There are still a few recession die hards worrying about that possibility, but by and large the worry has shifted to whether or not the Fed will delay its rate cuts in 2024–and thus delay the arrival of the “rate-cut-bounce.” While MANY–but certainly not all–investors, traders, and market analysts have been looking OVER THERE, however, the credit markets have built up a huge debt overhead and the global debt bomb looks ever closer to exploding. A crisis with the dire effects of the Global Financial Crisis of mid-2007 to 2009 is a possibility. I’d “guess” that most portfolios aren’t ready. The time to get ready is now. This increasingly looks like a debt market crisis of the type known as a Minsky Moment. To get ready first understand the source of the problem. I’m putting together a new Special Report for next week on what to do to get ready. Today’s post is a kind of set up, a get ready for the post on getting ready, if you will.
Danaher continues its post-Covid reset–now is the time to buy future growth
The comparisons with 2022 continue to hurt shares of Danaher (DHR). For the second quarter, reported yesterday, the company saw revenue down 8% and adjusted earnings per share off 26% year over year. The culprit is easy to see. But I continue to hold Danaher in my Jubak Picks Portfolio where the position, initiated on June 20, 2017, was up 198.3% as of the close on July 25. Tomorrow July 26, I’ll be adding these shares to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio. Danaher is one way to play the growth of the drug sector and the need of these companies for pure water.
Special Report: Finding the Next Nvidia: My 10 Picks–Pick #2 ESS Technology
Two keys to finding a stock capable of racking up Noida-like gains over the long term: Finding a cheap entry point. And finding a stock from a company with a fast-growing (over the long term) addressable market. (Just as a refresher Nvidia (NVDA) shares are up an average of 61% a year over the last 10 years.) My second pick to meet this challenge: ESS Technology (GWH)
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: China’s Troubling Economic Trend
Today’s Trend of the Week is China’s Troubling Economic Trend. This graduation season is highlighting the economic problems China is facing. The 16-24-year-old Chinese demographic went to college as a way of delaying entering the job market during COVID, with the expectation of a guaranteed job upon graduating. The bad news is those jobs have not materialized. Unemployment for the 16-24 year age group was up to 20.8% in May, even higher than April’s shocking number. These Chinese college graduates have recognized this problem and have started a movement called “lying flat.” These potential consumers, they say, will not be buying houses, or cars but instead, will cut consumption. This negative view of the future trend in the economy has spread to all demographics and has led to people hoarding cash. The People’s Bank of China has cut short-term interest rates and the state council has suggested another stimulus package is coming. These factors could give Chinese stocks a bump up, but won’t get to the heart of the economic problem or bring the country’s growth above 5%. I’ve switched my international diversification to South Korea from China on JubakAM.com because I believe this economic trend is a long-term issue and that these problems are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy.
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