Mid Term
November 17, 2021 | AMAT, AMD, Daily JAM, F, Mid Term, QCOM, Special Reports |
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
November 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
OPEC has decided that the current global economic recovery is very fragile and that the smart course is to raise production only gradually. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the global oil market will switch from being under-supplied to over-supplied as early as next month. Which would certainly imply that oil prices are set to fall from today’s (November 16) close of $80.79 a barrel for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate and $82.52 a barrel for international benchmark Brent. Oil hit a 7-year high of $85 a barrel in October. But you don’t have to look far to find those who don’t see oil falling from today’s levels–and who in fact see oil staying at elevated levels into 2022 or 2023.. At the end of October Goldman Sachs forecast $85 for 2023. BNP Paribas sees crude at almost $80 in 2023. Other banks including RBC Capital Markets have talked up the prospect of oil being at the start of a structural bull run. My view? There’s just too much noise pointing in competing directions to feel certain about any trend. (At least not certain enough to encourage me to put money on the line in my portfolio.) But, if I had to pick a side, I’d go with the “oil will move lower from here” crowd.
October 24, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
In September new home prices across 70 cities in China fell for the first time in six years. The drop of 0.08% is more significant than the absolute number seems because China counts on property-related industries for almost a quarter of its GDP. And because real estate is a primary source of budget cash for local governments. The timing is troubling. September is traditionally a peak season for the China’s new home market.
October 18, 2021 | AMAT, AMD, AMSC, ASML, Daily JAM, EVGO, F, FCX, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, Millennial, NJDCY, NVDA, SEDG, Special Reports, TSLA, Volatility, VWAPY |
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
October 18, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
China’s economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.9% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the national statistics bureau said today, October 18. That’s a big drop from the 7.9% year over year growth in April-June. Economists had projected growth of 5.2% for the quarter.
October 11, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
This year a drought hit oat farmers just in time to shape oat production nearly in half in Canada, the world’s largest oat exporter. In the United States, one of the top consumers of the grain used in everything from oat milk to Cheerios to granola bars, the harvest will be the smallest ever.
That has sent oat futures, up 2.1% on Friday, to an all-time high of $6.36 a bushel in a year when global food pries have already hit a decade’s high. That has hurt the share price of companies that produce oat-based products. General Mills (GIS), the maker of Cheerios, for example, has seen its stock price fall from $64.03 on June 4 to $61.70 at the close on October 11.
September 20, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Just about all of the Pandemic stimulus programs–checks for households, no-cost small business loans, enhanced unemployment payments–will have expired by sometime in 2022. Which is leading economists to project a slowdown in the U.S. economy for the second half of 2022. No matter what the size of the Biden administration budget finally turns out to be. U.S. fiscal policy will go from stimulating economic activity to acting as a drag on the economy. The Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center calculates that the economic impact from federal, state and local-government taxes and spending turned negative in the second quarter of 2021 and will remain that way into 2023.
August 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The Chinese government reported today that the country’s economy slowed more than expected in July. Retail sales were crimped by tough new virus restrictions introduced toward the end of the month to contain fresh outbreaks. Retail sales rose by 8.5% near over year. Analysts had expected growth of 10.9%.
August 10, 2021 | ALB, AMSC, CAT, Daily JAM, DE, Mid Term, MLM, Morning Briefing, VMC |
The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that the Senate passed today–roughly half of that represents new spending–still faces a tough go in the House of Representatives where progressive Democrats have criticized the measure as light on dollars to fight global climate change. That spending has been pushed into a second infrastructure bill, which would also include money for expanding Medicare and improving access to childcare among other “social” infrastructure spending, which the Senate actually took up today. Most political pundits think that efforts to pass a “social” infrastructure bill using reconciliation will be enough to secure all the votes needed to pass the traditional infrastructure bill in the House. The bill passed today would include more than $110 billion to replace and repair roads, bridges and highways, and $66 billion to boost passenger and freight rail. The plan includes an additional $55 billion to address problems in the U.S. water supply such as continued use of lead pipes despite conclusive evidence that lead in water pipes leads to cognitive impairment in children. It allocates $65 billion to modernize the country’s power grid and $7.5 billion to build out a national network of electric-vehicle charging stations. The bill earmarks $47 billion to respond to wildfires, droughts, coastal erosion, heat waves and other climate crises.
August 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
I wouldn’t call it the consensus yet, but financial market thinking seems headed toward a belief that the end of the Fed’s $120 billion a month in purchases of Treasuries and mortgage backed assets won’t be a big deal. Certainly not enough to upset the bond market or produce another temper tantrum. The belief hinges on forecast of demand and supply that sees them roughly in balance even after the Fed stops its buying. An end to Fed purchases would be a significant hit to demand. But it looks like the U.S. Treasury will be cutting back on bond auctions as about the same time. And that would leave demand and supply roughly where they are now.
August 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
With China closing tourist sites, cancelling flights and beginning the hard work of testing all 12 million residents of Wuhan (again), economic activity in China is taking a hit. (And don’t forget horrific flooding in parts of the country.) Securities firm Nomura lowered projections for third-quarter GDP growth to 5.1% (from a previous 6.4%) and for the fourth quarter to 4.4% growth down from 5.3%
July 29, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
U.S. gross domestic product grew 1.6% in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said today, July 29. That’s up from 1.5% growth in the first quarter of 2021. On an annualized basis, second-quarter growth was 6.5 percent. Which brings the economy back to where it was before the pandemic (adjusted for inflation.) That’s a remarkable quick rebound. After the Great Recession ended in 2009, it took two years for the economy to recover the ground that it has lost. But the recovery now faces two tougher jobs: replacing all the growth that didn’t happen because of the pandemic and fixing problems like anemic productivity growth and soaring economic inequality that troubled the U.S. economy before the pandemic recession. .
