Mid Term

Trick or Trend: Does the surge in buybacks balance the drop in margin debt?

Trick or Trend: Does the surge in buybacks balance the drop in margin debt?

Margin debt has dropped again in January, according to FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). The month to month drop for January is a big 8.8%. Margin debt is a useful indicator of market direction and top and bottoms. It tends to peak near a market top and signal a coming retreat in the market as lower levels of margin debt means some buyers are moving out of the market. On the other hand, corporations are buying back their own shares at a record pace.

U.S. national debt hits $30 trillion faster than projected

U.S. national debt hits $30 trillion faster than projected

America’s gross national debt topped $30 trillion for the first time last week. In January 2020, before the pandemic, the Congressional Budget Office projected that the gross national debt would reach $30 trillion by around the end of 2025. The question to me isn’t “Does this matter?” But “In what way does this matter?”

Is the trend turning in favor of big tech growth stocks?

Is the trend turning in favor of big tech growth stocks?

It’a always dangerous to construct a trend from Friday’s trading. Especially when the earlier part of the week has been so strong in one direction or another. (In this case, down, down, down.) Ahead of the weekend, stocks often reverse the trend from earlier in the week as sellers (in this case) decide that they don’t want to be quite so bearish until the market opens on Monday. So it’s not surprising that stocks gained today on nothing especially qualifying as news. But with all those caveats, I still found today’s action “interesting” and “perhaps” indicative of a future trend. Not only were stocks as a whole strongly higher–the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 2.44% on the day–but technology stocks led the move to the upside.

S&P 500 joins NASDAQ in 10% correction

S&P 500 joins NASDAQ in 10% correction

This morning the Standard & Poor’s traded more than 10% below its January 3 high. That puts this big market index in correction territory. As of 1 p.m. New York time the S&P 500 was down 2.99%. And that S&P 500 is one of the better stories this year. The NASDAQ Composite is off 17% from its November 19 high. The small cap Russell 2000 is down 20%, putting it on the edge of a bear market.

Should you invest in China now? Attacking the puzzle with buys on Monday of TCEHY and FXI

Should you invest in China now? Attacking the puzzle with buys on Monday of TCEHY and FXI

In other years this would clearly be the time to jump into China stocks. What we have right now is a classic, tried-and-true set up for big gains from buying China stocks. With a “but” or two that suggests a cautious strategy. But I will be buying shares of Tencent Holdings and the FXI ETF on Monday, January 3.

Buy on the dip? When? My December 12 update to the 25 stocks in my Dip-O-Meter

Buy on the dip? When? My December 12 update to the 25 stocks in my Dip-O-Meter

If not now, when?

When I checked the prices on the 25 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter at the close on December 10, a substantial group had dropped from the November 28 price. Nvidia (NVDA), for example had moved down to $301.98 from $315.03 on November 28. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) was down to $138.55 from $154.81. Tesla (TSLA) had retreated to $1017.03 from $1081.92 on November 28. Time to buy? Not yet, in my opinion. And how about for other stocks in my 25 buy on the dip candidates?