Top 50 Stocks
January 11, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-twenty-second YouTube video: Caution! Technology Margin Shake-Up Ahead!
This starts off as an Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) story. Apple recently announced that it would be moving away from using Broadcom (AVGO) chips for Wifi and Bluetooth in its iPhones, and begin using its own chips in 2023. This will of course make for better margins for Apple and speed up the company’s ability to implement new technology. This is a big blow for Broadcom which relies on Apple for 20% of its revenue. Apple also announced it’ll be moving away from QUALCOMM as they project it will have Apple chips to replace the QUALCOMM modem chips by late 2024-2025. (We’ve heard this before. And Apple had to call off the switch because of technology glitches.) You can expect more technology (and other) companies to shake up their own product designs and supply chains as they look at inflation and costs. Corporate profits have been at historic highs protecting profit margins at current levels won’t be easy.
January 8, 2023 | Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
News, rumor, and speculation from the Consumer Electronics Show point to a second half of 2023 launch for Apple’s (AAPL) AR “metaverse” headset. Apple has been “launching” this high-performance AR headset since 2017 but plans for a launch were put off in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The launch has even slipped in 2023 from plans to introduce the headset in January with the product shipped later in 2023. But now it looks like a spring announcement
December 27, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple (AAPL) shares were down another 1.21% as of 3:30 p.m. New York time today, December 27. That took the stock down to its lowest price since June 2021. The worry, of course, is China where, first, shutdowns under the country’s 0-Covid policy closed factories and kept consumers out o stores, and then, second, where an abrupt reversal of that policy has accelerated a new wave of outbreaks.
The timing of these developments, though, has some advantages for Apple.
December 16, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks |
Wall Street analysts had begun to cut earnings estimates for 2023 even before this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed’s signal that it would raise interest rates higher and for longer than anticipated–and Fed chair Jerome Powell’s very tepid support for the belief that there wouldn’t be a recession in 2023, is leading Wall Street analysts to cut forecasts again. I mean how great will revenue and earnings growth be in 2023 if the economy grows at the Fed’s projected 0.5%? And a big chunk of that thinking on Wall Street is asking now if that projection isn’t the optimistic end of a range that on the downside would put the U.S. economy into an actual recession. Which puts downward pressure on stock prices and makes it very difficult right now to put a fair value on any stock. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed down another 1.11% today, December 16. The Dow Jone Industrial Average was off 0.85%. The NASDAQ Composite closed lower by 0.97%. And the NASDAQ 100 ended down 0.63%. Take a look at how this works for a stock such as Nvidia (NVDA).
November 29, 2022 | Daily JAM, Millennial, PANW, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today I posted my two-hundred-and-tenth YouTube video: Quick Pick Defiance Palo Alto Networks. This week’s Quick Pick is Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW), the cyber security software platform company. During this bear market, it’s not surprising to see some stocks down nearly 50% and trading at 30% to40% discounts, but Palo Alto has managed to drop only 8% for 2022 and is trading at a relatively slight 15% discount to fair value, according to Morningstar. While Palo Alto has had its severe dips, it recently bounced back up after announcing very solid earnings. In the quarter sales were up 25% year over year and annual recurring revenue (from SAAS subscriptions) was up 67% and billings were up 27%. Palo Alto covers a lot of areas of cybersecurity, making it a more attractive alternative for enterprise corporations looking to consolidate their security software and move to a one-stop shop that can cover more aspects of their security needs. I’m reluctant to buy anything in this continuing bear market, but would suggest looking at this stock in February 2023 or so, especially if it dips again. Palo Alto Networks is a member of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on my two investing sites. The stock is up 108% since I initiated that position on January 21, 2020. The stock is also a member of my Millenial Portfolio on my subscription site JubakAM.com. That position is ahead 41% since May 21, 2021
November 18, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
Not all price increases are equally sticky.
Some jumps in cost are likely to get countered quickly because the goods or services in question exist in highly competitive marketplaces. And competitors are likely to cut prices to gain market share as soon as that’s feasible.
Other prices are sticky and unlikely to get rolled back quickly if at all. Much of this stickiness results from markets that act as oligopolies where companies don’t compete on price but instead follow the lead of their competitors in pricing higher and higher. The stickiness of inflation matters a great deal right now because it’s a big factor for the Federal Reserve in figuring out how many interest rate increases will be necessary to tame inflation. The stickier inflation is the higher the Fed will have to raise interest rates. From this perspective, the recent round of price increases from package shipping companies–from pretty much all of them–is bad news indeed for the Fed and inflation.
November 2, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
On Tuesday, November 1, Chinese stocks roared back on an unverified online rumor that the government had formed a committee to assess scenarios on how the country could end its Covid lockdown policy. Today, that rally has stopped dead after the Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was unaware of such a committee and after the government announced a seven-day Covid lockdown at the factory that produces Apple’s iPhone
October 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
Microsoft (MSFT) managed to beat Wall Street earnings estimates for its fiscal first quarter, reporting earnings of $2.35 a share versus the $2.29 expected by analysts after the market close on October 25. But the stock is down strongly today, October 26, on the company’s forecast of slowing growth for the next quarter and a decline in growth from its Intelligent Cloud business unit.
October 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Top 50 Stocks |
Alphabet (GOOG) reported a drop of 24% in third-quarter earnings after the market closed on Tuesday, October 25. Gross revenue rose just 6% to $69.09 billion. In the third quarter of 2021, revenue grew by just 6% to $69.09 billion from the third quarter of 2021. In that 2021 quarter revenue had grown by 41%. Analysts had expected earnings of $1.25 a share–instead of the reported $1.06 a share.
October 25, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, KO, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
This morning before the stock market open Coca-Cola reported earnings of 69 cents a share for the third quarter. That was up from 65 cents a share in the third quarter of 2021 and was above the 64 cents a share expected by Wall Street analysts. Revenue of $11.1 billion was higher than the $10.5 billion projected by Wall Street.
October 19, 2022 | Millennial, Top 50 Stocks, TSM |
I hate to do this. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) is the premier chip manufacturer in the world and I see the company continuing to grow revenue from the increasing demand for smaller and more powerful chips. And I certainly hate to sell a stock that’s down 46% for the year to date as of the close on October 18. Under ordinary circumstances, I would hold on and ride out the current slump in the semiconductor cycle. After all, we’ve been here before, right? Except that the U.S.-China trade war and the possibility that China will look for a confrontation over Taiwan make the current circumstances anything but “ordinary.”
October 11, 2022 | ASML, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
Today I’m selling ASML Holding (ASML) out of my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio. My take on Asmel hasn’t changed: this is one of the key chip equipment companies in the drive to produce smaller and denser chips. What has changed in the market and the global economy. I think that technology, and especially chip stocks, are in a downtrend that has a lot longer to run. And that recent U.S. restrictions on advanced chip technology exports to China will set off a trade war that will come down heavily on companies such as ASML.
