Volatility
February 3, 2024 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Volatility |
Nothing like a bank surprise to get Wall Street in a lather. On Wednesday, January 31, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) announced that it would cut its dividend and add to reserves against losses in its commercial lending portfolio. The stock fell 38% on Wednesday to hit a 23-year low on Thursday. The bad news wasn’t limited to U.S. banks either.Tokyo-based Aozora plunged more than 20% after warning of US commercial-property losses Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled its provisions against U.S real estate losses. I don’t see any reason to think that this is a one-day phenomenon. Or that the damage is just a minor problem in a few portfolios. Billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht warned this week that the office market is headed for more than $1 trillion in losses. “This is a huge issue that the market has to reckon with,” Harold Bordwin, a principal at Keen-Summit Capital Partners in New York, which specializes in renegotiating distressed properties, told Bloomberg. “Banks’ balance sheets aren’t accounting for the fact that there’s lots of real estate on there that’s not going to pay off at maturity.” On Monday then, I’m adding Put Options on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
January 30, 2024 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Millennial, Special Reports, Volatility |
Usually I start off one of these stock-picking Special Reports by building a paradigm that I can use to screen for the kind of stocks I’m looking for. For this Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs I’m going to reverse that process and begin with the 10 picks.My first pick is Luminar Technologies.
January 17, 2024 | AMD, Daily JAM, INTC, Jubak Picks, NVDA, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
It’s important to remember exactly how young artificial intelligence is as a market product. I certainly don’t think it’s possible to project the long-term winners on either the software or hardware side. Remember the days when Apple (AAPL) thought it was worth buying a Super Bowl add to urge consumers to smash the IBM PC empire? But I do think the hardware road map is petty clear for the next two to three years. Which is why I’m adding shares of Advanced Micro Devices to my portfolios tomorrow.
January 14, 2024 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Long Term, QCOM, Short Term, Special Reports, Stock Alerts, Volatility |
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #10: Qualcomm (QCOM). I think the market and the current stock price are missing a good prt of the growth story for Qualcomm. Which is why I find the stock undervalued enough to buy here. Right now the market disagrees. However, I’ll be adding the stock to my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios on Tuesday, January 16.
January 3, 2024 | BYDDF, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
This change at the top of the electric car market was widely expected. The only debate was whether it take place in the last quarter of 2023 or early in 2024. Now, we know. With both Tesla (TSLA) and BYD (BYDDF) reporting fourth quarter delivery numbers in the last few days, the switch at No. 1 is now complete.
December 28, 2023 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
GREATER Growth Stock Pick #8: BYD (BYDDF). I know; I know. What’s a Chinese stock doing on this list? It’s here because BYD, not Tesla (TSLA) is the big growth story in electric vehicles and not just for this month–but for years. And because I can see two catalysts that are about to power this stock higher. Morningstar calculates that BYD is 20% undervalued right now. Because this is a China stock we’ll need to take a deep look at valuation later in this post. But first, the growth story.
November 2, 2023 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
Whew. Glad that’s done with. No more worries about rising interest rates or higher bond yields. No more fretting over lower earnings and revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and 2024. No more nightmares about a wider Middle East war. Or a government shutdown on November 17. Or…
Well, you get the idea.
I don’t think any of these things are behind us. The rally of the last day and a half–I’m writing this at 1 p.m. Nw work time on Thursday–is a product of a little bit of possible good news from the Fed and from the U.S. Treasury (on a small reduction in the size of the next Treasury auction) and a temporarily oversold market resulting from a lot of bad days in a row. I’m not saying this is just a dead cat bounce (you know the image–even dead cats bounce, but they don’t bounce far). Good news from Apple (AAPL) on earning and revenue after the close today. And tomorrow’s jobs report for October could be weak enough to keep the “Fed is done” narrative going without being so weak that it resurrects fears of an economic slowdown.
October 27, 2023 | AMZN, Daily JAM, INTC, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks, VIX, Volatility |
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October 26, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
The NASDAQ Composite was still up 23.75% as of the close on October 25. But the index is now down 12.2% from its July 31 high as of the close on October 26. That’s correction territory.
October 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, Dividend Income, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Volatility |
“Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition!” Monty Python observed back in 1970 before attempting to torture a coal-miner’s wife with a dish rack. There’s an important investing version of this core truth: The financial market usually worries about the wrong problem. So that when the “Spanish Inquisition” (in financial terms) finally arrives, everybody is surprised. Well, we investors and traders have done it to ourselves again. We’ve spent much of 2022 and a good part of 2023 worrying about whether Federal Reserve interest rate increases would send the economy into a recession. There are still a few recession die hards worrying about that possibility, but by and large the worry has shifted to whether or not the Fed will delay its rate cuts in 2024–and thus delay the arrival of the “rate-cut-bounce.” While MANY–but certainly not all–investors, traders, and market analysts have been looking OVER THERE, however, the credit markets have built up a huge debt overhead and the global debt bomb looks ever closer to exploding. A crisis with the dire effects of the Global Financial Crisis of mid-2007 to 2009 is a possibility. I’d “guess” that most portfolios aren’t ready. The time to get ready is now. This increasingly looks like a debt market crisis of the type known as a Minsky Moment. To get ready first understand the source of the problem. I’m putting together a new Special Report for next week on what to do to get ready. Today’s post is a kind of set up, a get ready for the post on getting ready, if you will.
October 9, 2023 | Daily JAM, GDX, GLD, Jubak Picks, Volatility |
Gold was up 1.9% in trading on COMEX today to $1876 an ounce on war in Israel and Gaza and fears that it would become a wider conflict in the region. I’ve been looking for an exit from two of my gold positions for a while now. And tomorrow is a good exit point, I think.
October 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
The VIX, the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index, climbed another 12.32% today, October 2, to 19.78. The Call Options–with a strike at 17 and an expiration on December 20–I bought on the VIX on September 25 are up 38% as of the close on October 2. (I hold them in my Volatility Portfolio.) I’m inclined to hold them a bit longer because:
