You Might Have Missed
March 26, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
Some financial trends make the transition from directional moves driven by events–the war in Ukraine or a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell that opens there door to a 50-basis-point (instead of the “business as usual” 25 basis point move) increase in interest rates–to trends with their own momentum. These momentum trends then run until events arise to stop or reverse the trend Higher bond yields may have entered into that “momentum” phase last week. The yield on the 10-year Treasury ended Friday, March 25, at 2.47%, up 10 basis points on the day.
March 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
This counts as optimism about the global economy these days. Yesterday International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Tuesday advised the fund will cut its 4.4% global forecast for 2022 when it releases its fresh outlook next month. And the pessimists? They’re looking at a very empty glass.
February 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Yes, interest rates and the Federal Reserve and the Ukraine/Russia conflict are likely to dominate stock market direction this week, but don’t forget the power of the Iran/United States nuclear talks to move oil prices or the power of moves by Chinese regulators to wipe billions off the value of the country’s Internet stocks
February 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
Margin debt has dropped again in January, according to FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority). The month to month drop for January is a big 8.8%. Margin debt is a useful indicator of market direction and top and bottoms. It tends to peak near a market top and signal a coming retreat in the market as lower levels of margin debt means some buyers are moving out of the market. On the other hand, corporations are buying back their own shares at a record pace.
February 18, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, You Might Have Missed |
Russian state media are reporting a bomb explosion outside the separatist-controlled administration building in the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Video filmed by Russian reporters at the scene showed a fire burning. The car belonged to the head of the DNR’s police force, Denis Sinenkov, reports said. The explosion follows multiple warnings by the United States and others of a “false flag” incident, that could be used by Russia as a pretext to justify a military attack on Ukraine.
February 1, 2022 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Yesterday stocks reversed direction big time. After days of pounding lower the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 1.89% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.17% The NASDAQ Composite climbed 3.41% and the NASDAQ 100 tacked on 3.29%. Even the small cap Russell 2000 gained 3.05%. On those numbers I ‘d say the days action looks like a big oversold bounce off of a truly terrible January. But dig a little deeper and it looks like something else–or maybe additional somethings–was going on.
January 30, 2022 | AMZN, Daily JAM, FB, GOOG, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks, You Might Have Missed |
I’m looking for a mixed bag of BIG TECH earnings from Alphabet (GOOG), Meta Platforms (FB), and Amazon (AMZN). Unless Meta Platforms and Amazon can deliver big earnings surprises, I don’t think these reports will lift the market appreciably. And the week will end with the January jobs report.
January 28, 2022 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
It’a always dangerous to construct a trend from Friday’s trading. Especially when the earlier part of the week has been so strong in one direction or another. (In this case, down, down, down.) Ahead of the weekend, stocks often reverse the trend from earlier in the week as sellers (in this case) decide that they don’t want to be quite so bearish until the market opens on Monday. So it’s not surprising that stocks gained today on nothing especially qualifying as news. But with all those caveats, I still found today’s action “interesting” and “perhaps” indicative of a future trend. Not only were stocks as a whole strongly higher–the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 2.44% on the day–but technology stocks led the move to the upside.
January 23, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
Emerging markets and developing economies are looking at two very big and relatively near-term threats. First, and we know this one is coming, interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve could trigger a new debt crisis. Developing country debt repayments to creditors are already running at their highest level in two decades–even before higher U.S. interest rate and a strong dollar increase the burden on emerging markets and currencies.
January 21, 2022 | Daily JAM, VIX, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is up another 8.87% today to 27.83 on another drop in stocks and continued worry about the effect of looming Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Today I’m going to sell the February 16 VIX Call Options with a strike of 20 (VIX220216C00020000) that I bought on December 31, 2021 in my Volatility Portfolio. I bought those Call Options for $380 a contract and I’m selling today, January 21 with those options trading at $710 a contract as of 2:45 New York time. That’s a gain of 86.8% on this position in roughly four weeks.
January 19, 2022 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Volatility, You Might Have Missed |
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January 11, 2022 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Millennial, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks, You Might Have Missed |
If you worry about what worries me right now, I know what you want to know. When will the selling stop? When will it be a good time to buy “bargains”? And What stocks should you buy when you begin to buy? Those are the three questions that I’ll answer in this Special Report. Along with listing my first three buys on this selling.
