AAPL
May 3, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, NVDA, Short Term, Videos |
Today’s video is Go Away in May? Historically, the months between November and May were much more profitable than the months from May to November. The saying “Go away in May” came from that distribution of returns, suggesting investors should get out of the market during the less profitiable May to November period. This advice holds particularly true for tech stocks, which have very clear seasonal revenue patterns. For example, in March of 2023, Apple (AAPL) earned $1.52 per share, in June earnings per share went down to $1.26, in September they went back up to $1.46 and then the company blew it out in December to $2.18. While this isn’t indicative of the entire tech sector, it’s a good example of this seasonal pattern, especially for technology stocks with big consumer businesses. So what about this May? I’d say, you can probably “go away”–but maybe a little late than usual. NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings come out on the 22nd of May and will likely be giant. Current Wall Street estimates have earnngs per share at $5.14, up from $.88 a year ago. After that,the technology sector is relatively quiet. The next big tech event to look out for is Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference in June, which could result in “buzzy” tech announcements about AI. After that, I don’t see a lot of reason to be overweight technology and I’ll look to take some profits. I think this amounts to a modest Go Away in May call.
April 15, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple has lost its spot as the world’s biggest mobile phone seller, IDC reported today, April 15. A steep drop in sales in China for Apple let South Korean rival Samsung retake the lead in global market share. Samsung had been the biggest seller of mobile phones for 12 years until the end of 2023, when sales of Apple’s iPhone models overtook it. Global smartphone shipments increased by 8% to 289.4m units during January-March, according to IDC. Samsung has a 20.8% market share. That beat Apple’s 17.3% share
March 28, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Jubak Picks, Morning Briefing, Short Term, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple is likely to take its shareholders on an even wilder ride in the next six months than they’ve been on since the December all-time high at $199.62. The end result, I think is likely to be a renewed rally beginning in the fall–if you can either hold on through the volatility until then or see your way clear to timing when to buy and sell.
March 11, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, GOOG, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s video is The Magnificent Five? The Magnificent Seven were the main drivers of market success at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. But what happens when the Magnificent Seven are more like a magnificent Five, or even four? The original Magnificent Seven included Apple, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Nvidia, and Tesla. Both Tesla and Apple have taken major hits largely due to problems with China. China’s regulations have made it harder to sell Apple products in the country in the government’s effort to push domestic goods. Apple sales in China are down 16-17%. in the first six weeks of 2024. This, alongside a Wall Street perception that Apple is behind in AI technology, has brought Apple shares down 12% for 2024. As for Tesla, China is producing massive numbers of cheaper electric vehicles that are increasingly exported globally (with the exception of the United States where high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles limit sales) leaving Tesla down 25% in 2024. Google is also down 5% year to date though it may be too soon to write Alphabet off as “not magnificent” just yet. Both Apple and Tesla are no longer pacing the market and are indeed lagging. Bad thing? Good thing? I’d vote for “good thing.” The rally is beginning to spread out from a handful of big names. The only thing that makes me a bit wary is that so many investors are hoping to make money on speculative moves while the market is moving sideways. Those moves could cause volatility in a market that is otherwise likely to stay steady until we get big news from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts in June or so.
March 6, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Stock Alerts, Top 50 Stocks |
Apple (AAPL) shares are down 12% for 2024 to date as of March 5. But I don’t think Apple’s troubles are over. And it will take some pretty fast taking at the June WWDC (World Wide Developers Conference) to reverse the downtrend in the shares. Absent a knock-it-out-of-the-park performance from CEO Tim Cook, I think the weakness will continue the company’s product announcements in September. And maybe longer. Those of you who have long memories may recall that I sold my shares of Apple in my 12-18 month Jubak’s Picks Portfolio back on September 12, 2023 at $176.30 a share. (I kept my long-term position in Apple in my 50 Stock Portfolio.) That sell turned out to be early. Painfully early. The stock hit a 2023 high of $198 on December 14. And it has only recently moved below my September sell, closing at $169.62 on March 6. But the iPhone China problem that led to that sell call has gotten worse. And since then Apple has developed an AI problem as well. And unfortunately the China problem and the AI problem mix to form an especially potent negative brew.
January 27, 2024 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing |
It’s a Federal Reserve meeting week, but I expect Apple’s (AAPL) earnings report for its December quarter to be the big event of the week. With the potential to move the tech sector and the market.
December 18, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
The hope among investors and on Wall Street was that Apple (AAPL) would show revenue growth when it reported its fiscal first quarter earnings in January. That growth would be the first in a year after four straight quarters of falling sales. That’s the longest streak of declining quarterly sales in two decades. But now a patent decision against Apple will take some of its best-selling Apple Watch series, the Series 9 and the Ultra2, off the market just as the holiday selling season is peaking.
November 28, 2023 | AAPL, AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Morning Briefing, MSFT, NVDA |
Hedge funds are unwinding some of their overweight positions in technology stocks after their concentration in the sector reached record levels, according to Goldman Sachs. Net selling in tech, media and telecom stocks last week was the most since July, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note today. Information Technology (XLK) and Communication Services (XLC) were the most net sold sectors, Goldman said. And, among subsectors, sales of software stocks, chips and chip equipment and interactive media and services “were by far the most net sold.” The outweighed buying in IT services and media.”
November 21, 2023 | AAPL, AMZN, Daily JAM, GOOG, Jubak Picks, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSLA |
On Monday Nvidia (NVDA) hit an all-time high. For 2023 through November 17, Nvidia and the other 6 stocks in the Magnificent Seven–Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)–have gained more than 70%. The other 493 stocks in the Standard & Poor’ 500 are up 6% for that same period.
November 2, 2023 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Long Term, Morning Briefing, Top 50 Stocks |
So let’s see how the market takes this tomorrow.
Today stocks staged an impressive upside more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day 1.78% higher. The small cap Russell 2000 was the day’s best performer with a win of 2.67% Tomorrow? Well, the October jobs report released at 8:30 will certainly help set the tone for the day with a weak report likely to reinforce the belief that the Federal Reserve is done aiding interest rates. But given how much of the recent bounce has been fueled by a return of optimism about technology stocks, it’s likely that Apple’s disappointing results, announced after the close of trading today, Thursday, November 2, will determine the direction of the trend.
October 24, 2023 | AAPL, ALB, CAT, Daily JAM, DE, Dividend Income, DUK, F, GM, Jubak Picks, Mid Term, NI, SCCO, Short Term, Special Reports, Top 50 Stocks |
I’ve hi-lighted the key characteristics of the coming global debt bomb explosion that investors MUST include in any plan to protect a portfolio from the explosion of this bomb.
September 26, 2023 | AAPL, ADBE, ALB, AMAT, EUM, GOLD, LAC, Morning Briefing, MSFT, NVDA, PILBF, RWM, SCCO, Short Term, Special Reports, UUP, Volatility |
So what do you do with your portfolio for the rest of 2023? And what’s your best strategy to be prepared for 2024? In Part 1 of this Special Report I laid out the 10 developments that I thought would drive the financial markets for the rest of 223 and into 2024. Today, in Part 2, I’m going to give you the first 2 of 10 moves to take–with as much detail and as many specifics as possible–that you should be making now to position your portfolio for the uncertainties of the last quarter of 2023.
