Here we go again. It’s not that we really have any more information about the Omicron Variant–we certainly don’t know what its effects will be on global economic acuity–but just as fears that the Covid-19 variant would send the world back into lockdown crushed stocks last week, this morning, December 7, a belief that Omicron won’t be all that bad has taken root and stocks are soaring in morning action.
Want to know exactly how volatile the stock market is right now? Yesterday investors and traders got news that the first case of the Omicron Variant had been recorded in California. On that, and some “We’ll tighten sooner than expected” remarks from Fed officials, stocks plunged with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing a 972 point swing from high at 11:25 and 34,994 to the close a 34,022. Today investors and traders got news of a second case–a Minnesota man who had attended an anime conference in New York. And the stock market didn’t just shrug; it rallied big time with the Standard & Poor’s 500 closing up 1.42%, the Dow Industrials u 1.85%, and the small cap Russell 2000 ahead 2.74%.
Even as losses accelerate for almost all stocks as we head into the close today–the Standard & Poor’s 500, which was down 1.31% at 2:30 In New York had moved to a loss of 1.74% as of 3:30–shares of Apple (AAPL) continue to hang onto the green.
It was sure hard to see a market melt up today, November 22. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.32% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.26%. Market leaders in the melt up rally like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Microsoft (MSFT) were down 1.65% and 0.96%, respectively. And it was even harder to see the trend I thought might be on its way in my Friday, November 19 post “Forward into the past with tech stocks:We’re seen this market before.” The rotation into tech stocks that I saw on Friday turned into loses of 3.12% for Nvidia (NVDA), and 1.92% for Alphabet (GOOG.)
But I suggest that you take a look at Apple’s (AAPL) performance today
I expect a big tech sector reaction to Apple’s (AAPL) new product event on Monday. This is Apple’s second product event, following on the earlier iPhone 13 presentation. With chip stocks in particular and tech stocks in general–including Apple–looking for a direction–up or down–this event will shape sentiment on the sector–at least for a few days.
The Apple September 17 Call Options with a strike of $150 in my Volatility Portfolio climbed another 23.3% today. The options looks to be moving up as traders position themselves for a bump in Apple after the company’s next new product day–speculation has the date for the announcement of a nee iPhone as September 14 with pre-orders to start on September 17. The announcement is likely to be big news and will probably drive the stock higher. For the September 17 Call Options, however, the date is something of a double-edged sword since a September 14 announcement–a big positive–runs right into the time decay of the options since them expire on September 17.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-fourth YouTube video “Amazon miss is a big deal…for all stocks” went up today.
As of 12:15 p.m. the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down .01% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 0.75%. Tech stocks were down much more with the NASDAQ Composite off 1.85% and the NASDAQ 100 lower by 1.82%. The tech companies due to report earnings today after the close were all down. Apple (AAPL) was lower by 1.68%. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) had dropped 2.01%. And Microsoft (MSFT() was off 1.66%.
I hope it’s no surprise to you–I’ve been yammering away on this topic for the last two weeks after all–but next week is a big week for earnings from bellwether tech companies. The market reaction to those earnings will determine whether the current earnings based rally goes on for a while or if, instead, we get a sell on the news retreat. Tuesday, April 27, is the first big day with Apple (AAPL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) all reporting.
When it comes down to company earnings, we’re seeing a huge lag in revenue growth for companies in the service sector. Wyndham Hotels and Resorts (WH),for example, which reported first quarter results today, April 30, saw revenue fall to $303 million in the first quarter of 2021 from $410 in the first quarter of 2020. But, and I think this is the clear implication of the first quarter GDP numbers, those service companies will close that gap in the June quarter as companies open more services–Disney (DIS) opened its California theme parks today, for example–and consumers feel safer in going to theme parks or restaurants or gyms.
Data from Refinitiv published yesterday show that companies are beating estimates at a historic rate and that the amount by which they are beating projections is also at a historic high. Of the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies reporting so far, 86.8% have beat Wall Street projections. The average beat is a huge 23.5%. According to Refinitiv (where data goes back to 1994) that’s the highest percentage of companies to beat estimates for a quarter on record and also the largest average beat on record. Three things to think about.
After the close yesterday, April 29, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a key Apple supplier and a maker of radio frequency chips for smartphones and WiFi networking equipment, reported earnings of $2.37 a share on sales of $1.17 billion for quarter that closed on April 2 2021. That beat–slightly–Wall Street projections for earnings of $2.35 a share and sales of $1.15 billion. Year over year Skyworks earnings climbed 77% and sales rose by 53%. And what happened to the stock in after-hours trading? It got punished. Shares dropped to $183.37, a loss of $14.49 a share from the day’s close at $197.86. That’s a loss of 7.32%. In a market driven by expectations for constantly higher growth, I think you can see the problem.
