BMY

More bad news for stocks from the bond market today

More bad news for stocks from the bond market today

The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.

Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July

Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.

Another pattern from Friday to suggest this is a bounce and not a bottom

Another pattern from Friday to suggest this is a bounce and not a bottom

I can’t find Big Pharma stock in the green during Friday’s big rally. Which makes me question the staying power of Friday’s move. If the day’s gains were the result of a market bottom, wouldn’t everything be up? Even the very defensive drug stocks? Not as much as the tech losers of 2022 but still if the market had bottomed I’d expect these stocks to be in the green too. More evidence, I think, for my thesis that Friday was the result of technical trading in an over-sold market.

This week is last stand for growth stock earnings hopes

This week is last stand for growth stock earnings hopes

Going into this earnings season, the hope was that strong, surprisingly strong perhaps, earnings from the big growth stocks would put a stop to the selling. Earnings would be strong enough to convince investors that the market wasn’t over-valued since at these growth rates stocks would be seen to be quick growing into current extended valuations That hasn’t exactly worked so far. But this week the earnings story from growth stocks hits its stride. If the companies reporting this week can’t make the case for growth stock earnings, there probably isn’t a growth stock story to be made in the light of Federal Reserve interest rate increases, supply chain disruptions, and fears of a recession.

Another pattern from Friday to suggest this is a bounce and not a bottom

Adding Bristol-Myers Squibb to my Jubak Picks Portfolio tomorrow

As I noted in my posts over the weekend, I think that along with all the general volatility and the rotation away from high moment and higher price-to-earnings ratio technology stocks, the last week or so saw a rotation into “safe” haven stocks such as utilities and Big Pharma. Which is one of the reason I’m adding Bristol-Myers stock to my Jubak Picks Portfolio as of December 7