COH

More bad news for stocks from the bond market today

More bad news for stocks from the bond market today

The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.

Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July

Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.

Sales without profits for the holidays?

Solid growth in retail sales for the November and December holiday shopping season. Retail profits not so much. For November, advance estimates show retail and food services sales climbing 3.7% from November 2015, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. For December, preliminary forecasts from economists at Kiplinger see sales growth of 4.1% in 2016. That’s not as good as the 4.8% growth posted in 2014, but it would be a big step up from the 2.5% growth in 2015.