April 3, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Are they real or more vapor-tariffs?
Semiconductor chips and drugs are set to face higher duties, Trump told reporters at a news conference on Tuesday.“It’ll be 25% and higher, and it’ll go very substantially higher over the course of a year.” Asked if he had decided the rate of a threatened tariff on cars from overseas, Trump said he would “probably” announce that on 2 April, “but it’ll be in the neighborhood of 25%”. But are these “announcement’s real?
Trade war with Canada could be really nasty
Canada is looking at imposing taxes on major commodities it exports to the United States-—including uranium, oil and potash—if the incoming Trump Administration carries out a threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian exports.
So much for that easy fix to China’s consumer economy
China’s retail sales growth unexpectedly weakened in November. Retail sales rose 3% from a year ago. That was the the slowest annual growth rate in three months and it was well below even the most bearish forecast.
Just last week Chinese policymakers elevated boosting consumption to the top priority for next year. That marked , only the second time in a decade that the consumer economy was the focus of official policy.
Special Report: Buys and sells–and other money moves for Trump’s first 100 days. The complete 100 Days
What you need as an investor and what your portfolio needs is a road map to the likely events of the beginning of this new administration. And a take on what those events are likely to mean for the financial markets–and the prices of stocks and bonds. And recommendations on what moves to make to respond to the events of the first 100 days of a Trump Administration. Which is what this Special Report is all about. Here /i’ll give you an investor’s calendar to the first 100 days of Trump; a run-down of the likely effects on the financial markets of the events in the first 100 days; and recommendations for moves that you should make with your portfolio.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect
When the Federal Reserve announces its latest interest rate move and it’s Dot Plot projections on future interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth, it will be the Dot Plot projections that matter to the financial markets.
CPI inflation creeps higher in November
Inflation remains stubborn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That was hotter than a 2.6% rise in October. But that matched economists forecasts. It was also above September’s 2.4% annual rate. On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, the biggest gain since April. Prices for housing, energy, and particularly food all rose.
CPI core inflation, prices excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose another 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The are rate was up 3.3% for the year. For the past six months, core inflation has been stuck at an elevated level above the Fed’s target of 2%.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs–Pick #1 LAZR, #2 PILBF, #3 GWH, #4 NLLSF, #5 LYSDY, #6 VWDRY, #7 LCCTF
Usually I start off one of these stock-picking Special Reports by building a paradigm that I can use to screen for the kind of stocks I’m looking for. For this Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs I’m going to reverse that process and begin with the 10 picks.My first pick is Luminar Technologies.
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Apple revenue falls again, warns holiday quarter will be flat
So let’s see how the market takes this tomorrow.
Today stocks staged an impressive upside more. The Standard & Poor’s 500 closed up 1.89% and the NASDAQ Composite ended the day 1.78% higher. The small cap Russell 2000 was the day’s best performer with a win of 2.67% Tomorrow? Well, the October jobs report released at 8:30 will certainly help set the tone for the day with a weak report likely to reinforce the belief that the Federal Reserve is done aiding interest rates. But given how much of the recent bounce has been fueled by a return of optimism about technology stocks, it’s likely that Apple’s disappointing results, announced after the close of trading today, Thursday, November 2, will determine the direction of the trend.
The biggest good news from Barrick Gold’s earnings aren’t the earnings
Yesterday, Thursday, November 2, Barrick Gold (GOLD) reported earnings of 24 cents a share for the company’s this quarter. That was ahead of the 21 cents a share consensus estimate among Wall Street analysts. In the third quarter of quarter of 2022, the company reported earnings of 13 cents a share. The surprise was the fourth for Barrack in the last four quarters. But to me other news overshadowed the earnings themselves.
Are you glad that the stock market correction is all over? So why am I buying more VIX Call Options?
Whew. Glad that’s done with. No more worries about rising interest rates or higher bond yields. No more fretting over lower earnings and revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and 2024. No more nightmares about a wider Middle East war. Or a government shutdown on November 17. Or…
Well, you get the idea.
I don’t think any of these things are behind us. The rally of the last day and a half–I’m writing this at 1 p.m. Nw work time on Thursday–is a product of a little bit of possible good news from the Fed and from the U.S. Treasury (on a small reduction in the size of the next Treasury auction) and a temporarily oversold market resulting from a lot of bad days in a row. I’m not saying this is just a dead cat bounce (you know the image–even dead cats bounce, but they don’t bounce far). Good news from Apple (AAPL) on earning and revenue after the close today. And tomorrow’s jobs report for October could be weak enough to keep the “Fed is done” narrative going without being so weak that it resurrects fears of an economic slowdown.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady as expected, so why did 10-year yields fall 18 basis points?
Certainly, it wasn’t any surprise that at today’s meeting the Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. Going into the meeting the CME FedWatch tool put the odds of the Fed standing pat on rates at close to 100%. So why then the huge rally in the 10-year Treasury that pushed yields down 18 basis points on the day to 4.76%?
We are rightly skeptical of all of China’s economic data–but we KNOW the unemployment figures are cooked
Anyone who has followed China’s economy or invested in the country’s stocks is righty skeptical of all of the country’s economic data. The GDP growth numbers, for example, always seem to come in near target even when other measures show that the economy has hit a pothole. But right now, when the country faces a huge employment crisis and millions of migrant workers have no jobs and no safety net and millions of recent college graduates can’t find work, we know that the official numbers are a crock of chicken manure. And how do we know this? Because the Chinese government tells us so.
Not quite as bad as expected–Treasury increases its bond sales to just $112 billion and not the $114 billion feared
I guess it’s good news. Today the U.S. Treasury Department said it will slow the pace of increases in its longer-dated debt auctions in the November 2023 to January 2024 quarter to just $112 billion in the next auction, up from $103 billion. Primary dealers surveyed by Bloomberg had expected an increase to $114 billion in next week’s quarterly refunding.
And don’t forget Friday’s report on October jobs–will we get another surprise?
The “experts” expect that the Labor Department’s employment situation report on Friday, November 3, will show that the U.S. economy added 190,000 jobs in October. That would be a big drop from the 336,000 jobs added in September. But remember that these experts were projecting that the economy would add just 170,000 jobs before the September report.
The “other” big interest rate news tomorrow: How big will the Treasury’s bond auctions be?
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday–the market currently expects no change to policy interest rates. But I’d argue that the bigger news on internet rates for the day will come when the Treasury announces how many notes and bonds it intends to sell in auctions from November through January. Right now, it looks to me like the bond market is driving interest rates rather than the Fed so the number of bonds Treasury needs to sell is likely to set interest rate trends for the next few weeks. Bloomberg’s survey of Wall Street primary bond dealers shows that the consensus projection for the quarterly refunding sales announcement—including 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries— is for a $114 billion total, up from the $103 billion total three months ago.
Step #8 in my Special Report: Sell DE, CAT and BHP tomorrow
Today I posted Step #8 in my Special Report: 8 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Global Debt Bomb. I recommended selling Deere (DE), Caterpillar (CAT), and BHP Group (BHP) out of portfolios ahead of rising yields i the bond market. (In the case of Deere, I said I would keep my position in my long-term portfolio but sell the position in my 12-18 month portfolio.) Here’s what I posted in my Special Report
Step #7 in my Special Report: Sell GM and Ford sometime between now and December
I added Step #7 to my Special report: 8 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Global Debt Bomb today. And my advice is to sell Ford and General Motors sometime between now and before the December 13 meeting of the Federal Reserve. Here’s what I wrote in that Special Report.
I’ve added the last 2 steps to my Special Report “8 Steps to Protect Against the Global Debt Bomb”
This morning I added Step #7 and Step #8 to my Special Report on how to protect your portfolio agains the coming global debt bomb. And I promised Step #9 on what to sell in the technology sector by the end of this week.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
To catch you up in case your eyeballs have been focused elsewhere (and there’s certainly a lot of elsewhere to watch right now). First, the Russell 2000 broke below its July high. Then the NASDAQ Composite followed (down 12.2% from the July 31 high at the close on October 26.) Then the NASDAQ 100 joined in (down 10.9% as of the close on October 26.) And finally on Friday, October 27, the Big Daddy, the Standard & Poor’s 500 extended its slide from its July high to 10%. All thee indexes are now in correction. (Defined as a drop of 10% or more from the previous high.) The index and correction that worries me the most? The NASDAQ 100.
Amazon and Intel both soar on earnings but don’t take the wider market up with them–that’s not a good sign
You can tell a lot about market sentiment by watching how it reacts to good news from individual stocks. Yesterday, both Amazon (AMZN), a current market leader, and Intel (INTC), a former market leaders and still an important technology sector stock, both reported...
PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, comes in unexpectedly hot in September
The Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, accelerated to a four-month high in September. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in September from August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As with this week’s report of a surprisingly strong 4.9% annual GDP growth, the “culprit” in today’s surprise was strong consumer spending. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending jumped 0.4% last month. The numbers in this report for inflation and earlier this week for GDP growth argue that the Federal Reserve might consider another interest rate increase in the remainder of 2023. But Wall Street sentiment doesn’t agree with that view.
More technical breakdowns: NASDAQ falls into correction
The NASDAQ Composite was still up 23.75% as of the close on October 25. But the index is now down 12.2% from its July 31 high as of the close on October 26. That’s correction territory.
At 4.9%, third quarter GDP growth is even hotter than feared
The U.S. economy grew by an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, the strongest pace since 2021 and twice the pace of growth in th second quarter. Before the report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting annual growth of 43%. Growth at that rapid a pace, they worried then, could lead the Federal Reserve to consider raising interest rates at its November 1 meeting. Obviously now, after growth at 4.9% far exceeded projections of 4.3% growth, those worries are a little more pronounced. But only a little.
Selling utilities Duke and NiSource on higher yields elsewhere
Today, in my Special Report: 8 steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Globlal Debt Bomb, I advised raising some cash my selling two utility stocks, Duke Energy (DUK) and NiSource (NI) out of my Dividend Portfolio tomorrow.
Buy (more) of the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF to short small caps in this credit crisis
Today I’m adding the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
Special Report: 8 Steps to Protect Your Portfolio from the Global Debt Bomb–complete 8 steps
I’ve hi-lighted the key characteristics of the coming global debt bomb explosion that investors MUST include in any plan to protect a portfolio from the explosion of this bomb.
The technicals look increasingly awful for stocks
I know the bond market is getting most of the headlines at the moment. And it should be. By some measures, volatility in the Treasury market, you know, the old safe haven Treasury market, exceeds volatility in equities. And then there’s the drama of watching the assault on 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury. The drama isn’t just theatrics either. Above 5% yield on the 10-year Treasury there’s an increasing likelihood that something in this over-stretched credit market will break. But…you can’t ignore the stock market. The technical picture is increasly scary. Here too something looks like it could break–and not in a good way.
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