On to Stage #2 in my Special Report: “Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021. And to my rules for the sells and hedges in Stage #2 for 2021: When you win, you lose. (I just posted sells for ILMN, CTVA, WST and VMW)
2021 is shaping up as an especially challenging year for investors. Much, much more challenging than 2020. I don’t think we can count on this rally running uninterrupted through the year. That would be simple, wouldn’t it? We’d all know how to profit from that scenario. And I don’t think the market is about to drop off a cliff from its current record highs. That would be traumatic. But, still, we do know how to protect a portfolio in that scenario. And even how to profit from a prolonged plunge–if we can bring ourselves to place those short and Put Options bets. Instead 2021 is likely to be one of those years with a Rally Stage and then a correction (or “something”) to be followed by a last quarter of 2021 that is, at this moment, close to completely unpredictable. That would make 2021 one of those years that gives investors a chance to be wrong several times over, to botch timing on the upside and the downside, and to let emotions power some really bad investment moves. I don’t pretend that I’ve got this year’s market stages down perfectly–although I think the outlines for the first two stages for 2021 are pretty clear. I don’t imagine that I’ve got the timing for navigating these stages clocked perfectly–although I do think I understand “generally” when the market is likely to switch gears. And that lets me lay out for you a likely pattern for 2021 and to suggest stocks and ETFs to use to navigate this year. Part of the point in getting as specific as I can at this point isn’t that I expect that I’ve got everything right, but to lay out concrete markers that will let you and me adjust portfolios as the year progresses. I’m dividing this Special Report into three parts.
Genome sequencing equipment maker and consumables supplier Illumina raised its forecast for 2021 sales growth to 17% to 20% for 2021
Disney shares drop 1.7% today as traders take profits after yesterday’s beat on fourth quarter earnings and revenue
It’s hard being a long-term contrarian investor in a short term market dominated by momentum trading. But I think the rewards from that discipline will be substantial–if an investor has a long enough time horizon to wait out short-term negative trends.
Today, I’m adding Natura & Company Holding (NTCO) to my Millennial Portfolio.
As of 3:15 p.m. today, February 2, in New York, shares of GameStop (GME)were down 56.22% to $98.50. That a big drop from the January 27 closing high of $347.51, but it’s still significantly above the $17.25 price on January 4. Other stocks that have ridden the Reddit WallStreetBets fever for short squeeze horses are down today too. AMC (AMC) is off 39.70% to $8.02. First Majestic Silver (AG), the big silver play of the last few days, has given up 24.28% to $16.75. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is off 14.64% to $25.77. American Airlines (AAL), an early short squeeze play, slipped 1.16% to $17.65. The only potential short squeeze bet (if it was, that is) that’s still climbing is vaccine pill biotech Vaxart (VXRT), which was up 34.30% at 3:15 and looks to be riding momentum into the close. (The shares were up 54.43% as of 3:40 p.m.) Vaxart does bring this question to mind: So if the money is coming out of GameStop, etc., where is it going?
Nidec (NJDCY) shares gained another 7.69% today, after the maker of electric motors for hard drives, robots, and electric vehicles, raised its annual outlook for the fiscal year that ends on March 31. The new outlook forecasts operating income of 155 billion yen ($1.5 billion) versus the older forecast of 140 billion yen. The company authorized share buybacks of up to 50 billion yen, or about 0.7% of the company’s stock.
“While Corning (GLW) shares have rallied, we believe that a ‘stronger for longer’ consumer trend augurs well for underlying demand drivers in Corning’s business segments exposed to consumer electronics, with further tightening in the glass supply demand environment due to outages at a major competitor,” wrote Citigroup analyst Jim Suva in a note to clients last week.There’s a shortage of the high-tech glass used in video displays, mobile phones, and cars. One reason is a power outage that damaged manufacturing equipment at a Japanese factory of Corning rival Nippon Electric Glass. But another reason is a pick up in demand for consumer electronics products.
