February 3, 2021 | Daily JAM, FCX, Jubak Picks |
Back on January 26 copper miner Freeport McMoRan (FCX) dropped sharply–down 6.5%–when the company lowered guidance for production in 2021. For 2021 Freeport McMoRan expects sales of 3.8 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold. In October the company guided analysts to production of 3.85 billion pounds of copper and 1.4 million ounces of gold. (Freeport-McMoRan did raised its 2022 target for copper sales to 4.3 billion pounds from 4.2 billion.) But the company did report fourth quarter earnings of 39 cents a share, matching Wall Street projections. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company earned 2 cents a share. But…
January 28, 2021 | AG, Daily JAM, DIS, FCX, FQVLF, GDX, GOLD, Jubak Picks, MGM, Morning Briefing, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks |
U.S. GDP growth slowed in the fourth quarter, gaining just 1% from the third quarter. For the full year the U.S. economy contracted by 3.5%. That makes 2020 the first time that the economy has contracted for a full year since 2009 and the Great Recession. At the bottom of that recession that economy contracted by 2.5%. 2020 is also the worst year for economic growth since 1946 when the economy shrank by 11.6% as the country demobilized after World War II. Consumer spending slowed in all 15 categories tracked by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The sectors that had powered the recovery in the third quarter–restaurants and hotels, for instance–reversed. The growth in spending on cars and health car also slowed from the acceleration in the third quarter. So why is this good news as far as the stock market is concerned?
January 5, 2021 | Daily JAM, FCX, Jubak Picks, Stock Alerts |
Commodities have soared on prospects for a post-coronavirus vaccine economic recovery. And copper is one of the best commodities to own in order to invest in the recovery of the global economy–and especially the growth in the Chinese economy–as the coronavirus pandemic recedes in 2021. I already own Southern Copper (SCCO) in my Dividend Portfolio and First Quantum Minerals (FQVLF) in my Volatility Portfolio. Those stocks were up 56.83% and 77.64%, respectively, in 2020. Tomorrow, January 6, I will add shares of Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold to my Jubak Picks Portfolio.
January 4, 2021 | Daily JAM, Jubak Picks |
Yes, the big indexes were down today, January 4, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 off 1.48% at the close; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.25%; and the NASDAQ Composite lower by 1.47%. But I think we can find some clues about tomorrow’s action–and the moves over the next month or more–from taking a look at individual stocks and sectors.
November 30, 2020 | Daily JAM, Morning Briefing |
China’s official Purchasing Managers Index for Manufacturing rose to 52.1 in November. The was up from 51.4 in October. And beat the 51.5 median estimate from economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The index for the non-manufacturing sector climbed to 56.4 in November from 56.2 in October. That exceeded the median forecast of 56. The picture that emerges is of a Chinese economy that has stabilized in November and that has momentum generated by end of the year consumer spending and government measures to stimulate domestic consumer.
December 20, 2018 | AAPL, Daily JAM, EQNR, FCX, NKTR, PXD, Stock Alerts, VIX, Volatility |
In November and December I selectively added risk to my Volatility Portfolio in the expectation of a strong seasonal January Effect Rally and the odds of an end of the year bounce that would, temporarily, disrupt the developing bear market. I thought that was a...
September 24, 2018 | BABA, Daily JAM, FCX, Mid Term, SCCO, TCEHY, Volatility, ZNH |
Let's not overthink this, okay? In my post on Friday "Get ready for an emerging markets bounce" I laid out the case for believing that the emerging markets crisis is about to yield to an emerging markets bounce that could last weeks or even run through the end of...
August 3, 2018 | Daily JAM, FCX, FQVLF, Friday Trick or Trend, LNG |
Our regular (or occasional or perhaps occasionally regular) Friday series ( actually running on Friday this week) Trick or Trend looks at what might (or might not) be emerging investible trends. Exclusively on JAM. This post won't run anywhere else. Ever. Today,...
May 14, 2018 | Daily JAM, FCX, SCCO |
Today, House Speaker Paul Ryan announced a May 17 deadline for the Trump administration to submit a proposal NAFTA revision to Congress–if President Trump wants this Congress to vote on a revised agreement. The odds of an agreement emerging from current talks and moving on to Congress on that schedule are just about nil. At the same time news of significant horse trading is coming out of U.S.-China trade talks.
April 24, 2018 | Daily JAM, FCX, Stock Alerts |
Before the U.S. markets opened today Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) ) reported a big earnings miss. As of 2:30 p.m. New York time the shares were down 16.67%. That's good news for the May 18, 2018 Put options I added to my Volatility Portfolio on April 3,...
April 9, 2018 | Daily JAM, Short Term, Volatility |
Last week gave us a decent read on how volatile this U.S. stock market is. And how fear and uncertainty rule this market. Let me use the Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) May 18, 2018 puts with a strike price of $18 that I added to my Volatility Portfolio on April 3 as an example.
April 3, 2018 | Daily JAM, FCX, Stock Alerts |
Whenever someone asks me "Do you like Stock XYZ? my first question in response is "Over what time period?" So for example, in the short run--say the next month or two--I don't much like shares of Amazon (AMZN) for the reasons that I laid out in my post on the stock...
