Watch my new YouTube video: Time to Worry About China Too
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My forty-seventh YouTube video “Time to Worry About China Too” went up today.
What are the effects on stocks of China’s economic slowdown? Doing some selling of copper ETFs today
On Monday the Chinese government reported that the country’s economy slowed more than expected in July. Retail sales were crimped by tough new virus restrictions introduced toward the end of the month to contain fresh outbreaks. Retail sales rose by 8.5% near over year. Analysts had expected growth of 10.9%. Industrial production to a 6.4% year over year increase instead of the 7.9% in economist forecasts. Investment in fixed assets rose 10.3% year to year in the first seven months of 2021 against expectations for an 11.3% increase. No big secret about the effects. China’s economy is the driver for global demand for commodities such as copper. And for demand for some key manufactured goods such as chips.
Special Report: Fixed income investing is facing a crisis–3 tactics and 7 picks so you can fix your income investing crisis–Part 2, The first (of three) buckets
Today, I’m going to begin to give you specific picks so you can start to fill out the three buckets I recommended in Part 1 of this Special Report. Filling the long-term bucket is probably the most fun–who doesn’t like imagining the wealth that will roll in from finding the next Nvidia (NVDA) or from investing in the current Nvidia. The short-term bucket is the most challenging since it requires you to confront the current paucity of assets throwing off yields of even 2% head on.But let’s start there since the other buckets hang off the short-term bucket.
Stocks extend growth fears, selling today–how far does this go?
Today, Monday, July 19, stocks accelerated their retreat from the end of last week on fears that a fourth wave of the pandemic, fueled by the Delta variant, will crush hopes that the economy is headed back to normal. As of the close New York the Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 1.59% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 2.09%. The NASDAQ Composite was off 1.06% and the NASDAQ 100 had dropped 0.90%. The small cap Russell 2000 had fallen 1.51% and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 1.68%. For the day at least you can see the market’s fears accurately reflected in the list of stocks falling most heavily.
Today copper price plays a little catch up with copper stocks
Copper stocks have been moving steadily higher recently in anticipation of a turn in the eight week downward trend in the price of copper itself. Today, the price of copper is showing some of the upward movement that the rally in copper stocks anticipated.
Special Report: 5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market–another (new as of August 17) installment on hedging
After Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve, we all know that an interest rate increase is coming–even if we don’t know when. Could be 2022. Could be 2023. And even if we don’t know how many increases we’re looking for in that time period. Could be one. Could be two. The need to revise your portfolio to take that change in monetary policy is obvious. But figuring out how and when isn’t by any means straightforward. What gives? And how should be navigate a period that is almost certainly going to end with a reversal of the lower for longer interest rates that have dominated asset prices for decades? Today, for the last installment in my Special Report: “5 Picks and 5 Hedges for a Falling Market” I’m going to take one last run at how to hedge this market and how to position your portfolio for the developing trends. (I don’t have much hope that this will be the last time I’m visiting this topic, of course.)
Today the market looks a lot like “before the Fed Wednesday”
Remember way back at the beginning of last week? That is before the Federal Reserve signaled on Wednesday that more of the members of its Open Market Committee were thinking about raising interest rates sooner than previously expected. Re-opening stocks, value stocks, and cyclical stocks led the market. The small cap Russell 2000 was the best performing of the major indexes. Well, they’re back
Watch my new YouTube video: 5 Stocks for an Inflation Scare
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. The twenty-third YouTube video “Five Stocks for an Inflation Scare” went up today.
Two stock picks that are both growth and value to add to the Millennial Portfolio for long-term investors
Sure looks like a market struggling with rotations between growth and value stocks. One day the growth stocks sell off on fears of higher interest rates and rising inflation or something–and because after such a strong rally in the style growth stocks are very expensive. And that same day value stocks move higher because increasing economic growth is a very, very good thing for a style that depends on a strong economy for much of its revenue gains. The next day the market’s preference reverses and growth again outperforms value. What’s a poor investor to do? Especially the long-term investors with very long time horizons that are the focus for my new “Millennial Portfolio (for investors with more time than money.)” How about a few stocks that offer both growth and value? I’ve got two stocks today that I’m going to add to the Millennial Portfolio: Deere (DE) and Southern Copper (SCCO)
Trick or Trend: Is this a super cycle for copper?
In commodities world there are bounces. There are rallies. And then there are super cycles of higher prices that can go on for years on an imbalance between supply and demand. We’re had our bounce in copper. And our rally. Now are we seeing the emergence of a copper super cycle? I think the answer is yes.
My nibbles in today’s “Everything is down” market
Last time, way back on February 23, when I posted on an everything is down market, I said that I didn’t think we were yet at buy on the dip time, but that I was doing a little selective nibbling at stocks such as Applied Materials (AMAT) that had extraordinarily strong 2012 growth stories. Well, I’ve been doing a little nibbling today–again I’m not buying everything on the drop since I can’t tell where the bottom might be.
Special Reports: Profit and Protect–What you need to know about stock market stages for 2021–my first two hedges (copper and banks) for Stage #2
Hedges that can pay off on the downside and the upside are the most useful and most valuable. They also tend to be relatively rare. There aren’t a lot of these bets floating around in most markets just waiting for you to snap them up. However, I have found two hedges of just this sort in today’s market that I’m going to recommend to you today. (In this post I’m going to give you some of the nitty gritty numbers that support my recommendation for these two hedges. If you want to see some charts for copper and gold, banks and bonds check out the video I posted today.) I’m going to add these new recommendations to my standing Special Reports post tomorrow.
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