I’ve hi-lighted the key characteristics of the coming global debt bomb explosion that investors MUST include in any plan to protect a portfolio from the explosion of this bomb.
Investors see a ton of third-quarter earnings reports this coming week with news from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Alphabet quite capable of moving the entire market. We’ll also get more consumer company (Coca-Cola and Kimberly-Clark for example) reports to show whether last week’s higher revenue but lower volume pattern continues. And Wall Street is expecting negative new from oil companies ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) when they both report on Friday.
Now that Fed day is done and behind us, we return to our regularly scheduled programming. Back on September 15, I posted “A tough day for tech–Part 1” after news on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) reporting that the company was slowing orders with suppliers of chip making equipment because of sluggish demand for chips from its customers. Now onto Part 2 of bad news for tech stocks.
The People’s Bank of China cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time this year. The move is an effort to boost flagging economic growth in China. The bank could have cut its benchmark interest rate in pursuit of the same goal. But that would have led to more selling against the yuan and the People’s Bank has been busy in the trenches in recent weeks trying to prop up the yuan agains the dollar. The question, of course, is whether the cut in reserve requirements will be enough, without a reduction in interest rates, to revive growth in China’s economy.
Today’s Quick Pick is Eli Lilly And Co (LLY). Lilly is my favorite big drug stock right now. The company recently announced second-quarter earnings and showed 22% year-over-year sales growth. The company has a promising pipeline of new drugs. Mounjaro, Lilly’s diabetes drug, is likely to get weight-loss approval from the FDA. They also have new products for Alzheimers, and Cardio Metabolic drugs coming out soon. The growing enthusiasm for diabetes and weight-loss drugs has the stock overvalued by about 46% according to Morningstar. Their competitors are in similar situations. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is 28% overvalued according to Morningstar. At this point, if you’re looking for somewhere to immediately put some money to work, I’d still go with Eli Lilly. In this case, you have to consider not just the absolute valuation but also weigh the prospects of both companies. In my opinion, Eli Lilly outshines Novo Nordisk if you look at the pipelines at the two companies
After the close, yesterday, August 17, semiconductor equipment gorilla Applied Materials (AMAT) reported a 2% year-over-year drop in fiscal third-quarter revenue. At $6.43 billion revenue still beat Wall Street estimates of $6.15 billion. Gross margins of 46.3% were up 0.2% from the year-earlier period. The company reported operating income of $1.8 billion, with earnings per share of $1.85. And the future looks solidly better.
Today’s Quick Pick is: Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ: GOOGL) or as most people know it, Google. Google is an extraordinarily good stock with pricing power. At 85% of the search market, Google is pretty close to having a monopoly. The good time to buy a stock like this is when there have been doubts about it. The recent worries were Microsoft’s addition of AI to their search engine, possibly having a huge impact on Google and a decrease in Google’s advertising market. These factors caused the stock to plateau for a time, but we’re now seeing the stock shoot upward. This has been solidified by second quarter earnings. Revenue growth returned to YouTube, searches increased, and second quarter revenue was up 7% year to year, cloud revenue grew 28% and operating margins grew to 29% from 28%. Morningstar says Google is about 17% undervalued. Google is a part of my long term 50 stocks portfolio, but I’ll be adding it to my 12-18 month JubakPicks portfolio as well.
The key sentiment barometer I’m watching is Palo Alto Networks (PANW), down 13% in the last month on fears that Microsoft (MSFT) is going to gobble up the revenue growth in the cybersecurity space. I think that fear is overblown, at least when it comes to Palo Alto Networks. The stock has long been a favorite of growth stock investors and, if sentiment on market direction for the rest of 2023 is positive I’d expect strong buying in the shares ahead of the Friday, August 18, earnings report. The Wall Street consensus calls for the company to report earnings of 54 cents a share against 15 cents a share in the fiscal quarter a year ago.
Today’s Quick Pick is Visa (NYSE: V). Shares of Visa are showing a good trend reversal. From June through July, Visa’s stock began to pick up after sitting flat for some time. The reason for this jump? The company’s second-quarter report included a 13% increase in net revenue, a 9% increase in payment volume, and an increase in margins to 67.5% from 66.9% in the previous quarter. Visa is so embedded in the economy that it can actually outperform the economy. For example, Visa recently went to war with small merchants by lowering the permissible surcharge on credit card payments from 4% to 3% and the company has deployed inspectors to ensure merchants are abiding by that rule. That’s even though back in 2017, the Supreme Court decided that laws that regulate surcharge amounts were unconstitutional. Visa isn’t making a law, but they clearly have the market clout to put this kind of pressure on small businesses. The 20% of merchants that have imposed a surcharge on credit card use don’t seem to be affecting profit margins or growth for Visa. Morningstar calculates that Visa is trading at a 17% discount to fair value, although the trailing twelve-month PE is 30.2. Visa always trades at higher than a market multiple. The 5-year average PE is 35.6, so 30.2 actually looks like a discount. I own it in my 12-18 month Jubak Picks portfolio and will continue to hold it there. I am also adding it to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
The comparisons with 2022 continue to hurt shares of Danaher (DHR). For the second quarter, reported yesterday, the company saw revenue down 8% and adjusted earnings per share off 26% year over year. The culprit is easy to see. But I continue to hold Danaher in my Jubak Picks Portfolio where the position, initiated on June 20, 2017, was up 198.3% as of the close on July 25. Tomorrow July 26, I’ll be adding these shares to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio. Danaher is one way to play the growth of the drug sector and the need of these companies for pure water.
Today’s Quick Pick is Nvidia (NVDA)–Hold Through Earnings on August 23. Nvidia reports late in this quarter’s earnings season, and this report is expected to be very good. Wall Street’s expectations range from a low of 75 cents a share to a high of $1.75 but the consensus is $1.66 a share, up from 32 cents last year. Nvidia has been reporting 30% positive surprises in recent quarters, so there’s a good chance the results may be even better than expected. My suggestion is to hold the stock through this report in August, and then think about selling. I know, I know. Sell Nvidia!? That’s crazy! Here’s the thing. At some point, Nvidia’s growth rate is going to start to slow. When it does, people will look at the stock and decide the slower growth rate may not
This breakthrough in solar power isn’t enough to stop global warming by itself, but it sure is enough to upend the entire energy sector within the next five years. Multiple research groups (and “multiple’ is important here because it means there’s more likelihood that the lab results will hold up to scrutiny. Two groups published the details of their efficiency breakthroughs in the journal Science on Thursday, and at least two others are known to have pushed well beyond 30%.) have reported a breakthrough that will push the efficiency with which solar cells convert sunlight to electricity through the 30% level that has been thought to mark the maximum conversion of sunlight to electricity.
