NKTR

Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)

Remember that volatility creates volatility–time to look to some tax loss selling (like Nektar)

With the VIX “fear index” falling back closer to “normal” levels–it dropped to 21.89 yesterday from 31.12 on December 1–it sure feels like the extreme volatility of the end of November and early December is on the ebb. The move to yesterday’s 21.89 close from December 1 was was a surge of 30% in the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index in a week. This move away from panic follows on a jump in the “fear index” in the week from November 24 to December 1 of 67% in the opposite direction. I’d be surprised if we don’t see another surge in volatility in the rest of December or in January with what promises to be a crazy earnings season, but even if volatility holds at something like today’s level–slightly elevated from the historical averages but in the rough ballpark–don’t forget that volatility has a long tail. Volatility, in fact, creates volatility. And not least of all in individual stocks.

Nektar should be climbing but this fast?

Nektar should be climbing but this fast?

Nektar (NKTR) is another one of those stocks that looks to be moving up more strongly right now than the relatively sparse news would explain. Shares of this biotech are up 18.96% in the last week and 24.37% for the last 3 months. I can see a stream of positive news that should be leading the stock gradually higher, but nothing that is especially “current.”

Selling AAPL, FCX, NKTR, PXD, VIX options out of Volatility Portfolio on likelihood of continued downward trend in the market and looming expirations

Selling AAPL, FCX, NKTR, PXD, VIX options out of Volatility Portfolio on likelihood of continued downward trend in the market and looming expirations

In November and December I selectively added risk to my Volatility Portfolio in the expectation of a strong seasonal January Effect Rally and the odds of an end of the year bounce that would, temporarily, disrupt the developing bear market. I thought that was a...