Even as losses accelerate for almost all stocks as we head into the close today–the Standard & Poor’s 500, which was down 1.31% at 2:30 In New York had moved to a loss of 1.74% as of 3:30–shares of Apple (AAPL) continue to hang onto the green.
When I bought Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) back on June 28, 2021, I thought the stock was moderately over-valued. But that, like many over-valued stocks with momentum, it would move higher. I set a target price then of $596 a share. Well, moderately over-valued has become more seriously over-valued. Morningstar calculates that the stock traded at a 37% premium before the 2.79% gain today, November 29.
On what looks like solid odds for interest rate increases in 2022, I’m selling my remaining Treasury ETFs out of my portfolios.
Today on the market’s recalculation of the Federal Reserve’s schedule for interest rate increases–initial hike in June instead of September and two increases 2022 instead of one–I’m adding my allocation to the Invesco KBWB Bank ETF (KBWB) in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio to 30% from the prior 20%.
Even if mere mortals don’t know whether a second term as Fed chair for Jerome Powell would accelerate the schedule for interest rate increases, both the yen/dollar market and bank stocks know.
It was sure hard to see a market melt up today, November 22. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.32% and the NASDAQ Composite fell 1.26%. Market leaders in the melt up rally like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Microsoft (MSFT) were down 1.65% and 0.96%, respectively. And it was even harder to see the trend I thought might be on its way in my Friday, November 19 post “Forward into the past with tech stocks:We’re seen this market before.” The rotation into tech stocks that I saw on Friday turned into loses of 3.12% for Nvidia (NVDA), and 1.92% for Alphabet (GOOG.)
But I suggest that you take a look at Apple’s (AAPL) performance today
On Saturday I posted that Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report on November 17–that is today–and the market reaction to the company’s quarterly earnings report would tell us a lot about market sentiment and the magnitude of any year-end, market melt up rally.
Wall Street analysts were projecting that the company would announced earnings of 95 cents a share for the quarter that ended in October. That would be a huge 58% increase from the 60 cents a share reported for the October 2020 quarter, I
But, I worried, that much of that number was already in the share price. The stock was up 47% in the last month and 133% for the year to the November 15 close. Would the stock drop if all the company did was meet expectations?
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
U.S. retail sales rose in October for a third month. The value of overall retail purchases increased 1.7% last month, the most in seven months, the Commerce Department said today, November 16. Excluding gas and motor vehicles, sales gained 1.4% in October. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 1.4% advance in overall retail sales.
Back in October when I made Oatly Group (OTLY) the No. 4 pick in my Buy on the Dip Special Report, I advised waiting until after the company’s November 15 earnings report because there was a good chance that the company would miss estimates and disappoint on guidance. Exactly. Today the company did both and the stock dropped 20.8% on the day. That’s a big one-day plunge, especially since even before today’s beating the stock was down 59% formats June 11, 2021 high. I think it’s safe to say that much of the risk is now out of these shares
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My sixty-ninth YouTube video “Trend of the Week Big Pharma for Safety” went up today.
This is a very tough market for Buy on the Dip investors and traders. Not, as you might think, because a market that hits a new record high just about every day doesn’t offer very many opportunities to buy on the dip. Actually a market melt up, like the one we’re now experiencing, offers a lot of buy on the dip chances. That’s because while everyone wants to hold the market’s rockets, no one want to hold any stock demonstrating any weakness. Sell at the slightest whiff of bad news–as shares of Oatly (OTLY) demonstrated today, November 15, when they plunged 20.81% on disappointing earnings and guidance for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022. (Oatly is on this Dip-O-Meter list.) One problem is that plunges tend not to last very long.
