Drill baby, drill pledge sends oil prices down today
Oil slid as U..S President Donald Trump promised to boost U.S. crude production. Brent crude retreated almost 1% to near $80 a barrel.
YPF
Jobs surprise–economy delivers stronger than expected performance in December
In December U.S. economy in December added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. Nonfarm payrolls increased 256,000, exceeding all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% from November, a Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed Friday. For 2024 as a whole, the economy added 2.2 million jobs—-below the 3 million increase in 2023 but above the 2 million created in 2019. The data almost certainly assured that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates at its January 29 meeting. As of 11 a.m. New York time, the yield on the 10-year Treasury had climbed another 5 basis points to 4.74%.
China’s deflation problem got worse in December
China’s consumer price index rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier, in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Factory deflation extended into a 27th month, though the producer price index recorded a slower drop of 2.3%, the National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. For the full year, consumer prices only inched up 0.2% from 2023, well short of the 1.1% gain economists had predicted at the beginning of 2024.
Fed’s December minutes another nail in the coffin for early interest rate cuts
In minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December 17-18 meeting released on Wednesday, January 8, Federal Reserve officials clearly decided to move more slowly on cutting interest rates in the quarters ahead. “Participants indicated that the committee was at or near the point at which it would be appropriate to slow the pace of policy easing,” minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee showed. “Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters.” Please note the reference to “quarters” and not “months.”
More bad news for stocks from the bond market today
The 20-year Treasury bond, a laggard on the government debt curve since its re-introduction in 2020, topped 5% Wednesday for the first time since 2023. The move looks to be fueled by concern that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies on tariffs and tax cuts will lead to wider deficits and rekindle inflation.
Stocks fall as they begin to price in no rate cut until July
The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 2 points to 54.1 last month. That show of strength in the economy–readings above 50 indicate expansion–was enough to push stocks lower as the markets began to price in a delay in the next interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve until July The measure of prices paid for materials and services rose more than 6 points to 64.4, suggesting that the drop in the inflation rate in the service sector–about 70% of the U.S. economy–might be over.
Reminder: Today is the deadline for selling to take tax losses in 2020
Sell today if you’re looking to sell to generate tax losses for 2020. After today, December 29, you can still sell but the losses will count for the 2021 tax year.
Oil continues to move higher on Middle East fears
Oil futures in New York settled at their highest since December 2014. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.35% to close at $68.88 a barrel. International benchmark Brent crude rose 0.88% to $74.71 a barrel. The gains were unusual in that the U.S. dollar strengthened today. But the markets had news of another missile attack on Saudi Arabia–again unsuccessful–by Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthis are backed by Iran and Yemen has become a proxy war for power in the Middle East between Iran and Saudi Arabia (and by extension, Russia and the United States.)
Sector Monday: Norway’s wealth fund moves to get out of oil–should you follow? My five rules for thinking about investing in oil and natural gas now.
Norges Bank Investment Management, the entity that runs Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund, has recommended that the fund, which invests the country’s take from oil and gas revenue from production from its own reserves, sell off its shares in oil and gas stocks. The fund owns $35 billion in oil and gas shares. Should you follow suit?
MSCI decides not to tango with Argentina yet
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Today it’s all about oil–again
Today’s moves take oil to a 7-month low. And oil is now in an official bear market for 2017 with West Texas Intermediate down 20% from its February 23, 2017 high at $54.45 a barrel. Why the tumble?
Adding Argentina’s YPF oil producer to my Volatility Portfolio
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