April 4, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
Wall Street sees gold going higher on rising buying from global central banks
Today Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end target for gold to $3,100 an ounce. Central banks are buying gold at a faster than expected pace and flows into gold ETFs are accelerating.
Is there a universe where shutting the government a week before Christmas is a good idea? And yetbthat’s what republicans seem determined to do
It’s now not just that the MAGA wing of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives along with President-elect Donald Trump and who-elected-you co-president wanna be Elon Musk have killed the Continuing Resolution (CR) negotiated with Democrats by Republican Speaker Mike Johnson. That bill would have kept the government’s doors open beyond Saturday’s funding deadline until March 14, 2025. There’s no way to put together a new package and pass it before funding for the government expires. These folks have also made it extremely likely that the shutdown will last for more than a few days. How?
House Republicans push government shutdown brinkmanship to the brink
Late Tuesday House Speaker Mike Johnson introduced legislation to prevent a government shutdown this weekend by extending federal funding until March 14, sending $110.4 billion to natural disaster survivors, and codifying a miscellany of policy changes. But Republicans are preparing to scrap Johnson’s plan to avert a government shutdown.
Fed signals fewer cuts, higher interest rates, higher inflation in 2025
In today’s quarterly update to its projections on economic growth, inflation, and interested rates in its Dot Plot survey of sentiment, Fed officials and governors forecast fewer rate cuts for next year than in their September projections, and they saw the fight against inflation making considerably less progress in 2025. According to the median estimate, they now see the benchmark interest rate reaching a range of 3.75% to 4% by the end of 2025. That would mean just two 25 basis-point cuts. The Fed’s projections are considerably more pessimistic than investors or Wall Street economists are. A majority of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected the median estimate would point to three cuts next year.
As expected, the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by another 25 basis points
Today, December 18, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate for a third consecutive time.The Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to cut the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the action, preferring to hold rates steady.
Please watch my new YouTube video: Hot Money Moves NOW! The dollar
Today’s Hot Money Moves NOW is U.S. Dollar. The dollar has been on a good run and is up 7% in the last three months, 2% in the last month. I expect this to continue with higher tariffs, and a Fed that will remain steady while other currencies are seeing more volatility. To get in on this you can buy an ETF like Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP), currently up 10.19% YTD with a 75 basis point expense ratio. Another option would be the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU), up about 11% YTD with a 50 basis point expense ratio. WisdomTree buys Treasuries while Invesco uses futures but both are similarly sized ETFs and good ways to play the US dollar.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs–Pick #2 PILBF
This one is very simple. When the price of lithium rebounds, high-quality low-cost lithium producers will see the revenue roll in. That’s why I’d got the world’s leading lithium-producer Albemarle (ALB) in my long-term 50 Stock Portfolio. But a smaller, high-quality, low-cost producer like Australia’s Pilbara Minerals will show gains even higher than Albemarle since the current price of $2.29 a share comes close to discounting the company’s survival.
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
If this is such a great economy, why did Cisco and Palo Alto just cut cut guidance for 2024?
More real world dissent to Wall Street’s view that everything looks great for 2024. On Thursday Cisco Systems (CSCO) shares closed down 9.83% after the networking giant offered up significantly weaker-than-expected guidance for 2024. Wall Street analysts called the guidance “disappointing.” And the same day cybersecurity favorite Palo Alto Networks (PANW) dropped 5.42% after the company lowered its billings forecast for the fiscal 2024 year.
New claims for unemployment climb to three-month high
More news this morning pointing to a slowing economy. Initial claims for unemployment for the past week rose 13,000 to 231,000, the Labor Department Reported this morning. That’s the highest weekly figure in three months. And is yet another sign that the economy is cooling. Which would encourage the Federal Reserve to call an end to it interest rate increases and, maybe even, start to cut rates relatively soon. At least that’s how the bond market read the numbers.
Bond market pauses: Are bond prices ahead of themselves? Have yields dropped too far?
Today stocks and bonds both paused to think about yesterday’s huge rally.
Congress averts shutdown–kicks the can down the road to January
Well, you could knock me over with a feather! The House of Representatives passed a clean Continuing Resolution to continue funding the federal government after Friday at midnight. Don’t get all dewy-eyed and start talking about a return of functional government. The House bill, which is expected to pass and Senate in the next day or two and be signed by the White House with well over 10 hours to spare before the government shut down, only extends funding until January 19 (for 20% of the government) and February 2 (for the other 80%.)
Will Tuesday’s rally continue? 3 things I’m watching
One day fluke? The next step in an end of year Santa Claus rally? Huge bear market trap? The beginning of the next big Bull market?Tough questions to answer but important for figuring out an investment strategy for NOW. So here are three things that I’ll be watching in the next few days.
Core CPI inflation beats expectations by 1 basis point and stocks rocket higher
Core Consumer Price Index inflation came in at a 4.0% annual rate in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning, November 14. Economists had projected a 4.1% annual rate for October. And that 1 basis point, small as it was was enough to send stocks and bonds soaring. At the close, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 1.91%.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
I expect Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October to be critical in determining whether the Christmas rally narrative can be sustained.
Moody’s cuts outlook for U.S. credit rating to negative
Moody’s Investors Service turned negative on the United State’s credit rating outlook Friday after the market close, citing risks to the nation’s fiscal strength and political polarization. The credit rating company lowered the outlook to negative from stable, even as it affirmed the nation’s rating at Aaa, the highest investment-grade notch.
Don’t give up on your volatility hedges yet–look what’s on the horizon
My bets on rising volatility have been hammered in the last few days. The December 20 Call Options on the CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) at $280 a contact dropped another 21% today to $121 a contract. The January 17 Call Options at 17 that I bought for $268 closed at $211, down another 16%.The VIX itself ended the day at 14.23, down 7% for the session. It’s sure hard looking at losses like this. But I would remind you that the VIX is very volatile. The volatility index was at 21.71 on October 20. And that the calendar is marked with two big events that could reunite financial market volatility, one courtesy of the House of Representatives and the other courtesy of the Federal Reserve.
What the Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away
Eight days ago Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell set off a financial market rally when the markets thought they heard him signal that the Fed was done with interest rate increases. Today, November 9, Powell very clearly said (at an International Monetary Fund conference in Washington) that the Fed won’t hesitate to raise rates if a hike is needed. Other Fed officials have recently said the same thing.
The big pay off for Eli Lilly is still ahead
On Wednesday the Food and Drug Administration approved Mounjaro from Lilly, as an obesity drug, after clinical trials showed that patients lost an average of 18% of their body weight. The drug will be marketed as Zepbound in the obesity market. This puts Lilly into direct competition with the wildly popular Wegovy weight-loss drug from Novo Nordisk (NVO)
Is the job market weakening? Look for a hint in tomorrow’s initial claims report
It’s not a big shift, but it may be a trend. The weekly initial claims for unemployment report–a new one comes out on November 9–has recently shown a very gradual weakening of the U.S. jobs market. Last week in the November 2 report for the week ended October 28, the number of new claims for unemployment rose to 217,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week. The four-week moving average, which smooths week to week noise–climbed 2,000 from the four-week moving average the prior week. Will tomorrow’s November 9 report show a continuation of this very subtle trend?
Oil rally is over–pending any explosion in the Middle East
Oil prices fell again on Wednesday, November 8. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, lost another 2.30% to $75.59 a barrel. International benchmark Brent dropped 2.19% to $79.82 a barrel. The cause? A drop in China's exports that fueled fears that demand from...
A good auction for Treasuries sends 10-year yield to 4.51% today
Stocks had a mixed close today, November 8. The Standard & Poor’s 500 was up just 0.03% and the NASDAQ Composite actually fell by 0.05%. The small-cap Russell 200 lost 1.17% as small company stocks continue to send a warning sign about the economy and bond yields. I think it would have been much worse without a strong action for 10-year Treasuries today A successful auction–lots of demand at lower yields–of $40 billion in 10-year notes took the yield on the 10-year Treasury down 6 basis points to 4.51%.
What a surprise! Consumers are in debt trouble
Credit card debt surged again during the third quarter and so did the number of people missing payments, according to data released today, November 7, by the Federal reserve Bank of New York. Credit card balances rose by $48 billion in the third quarter to a record high of $1.08 trillion The $154 billion year-over-year gain in debt was the largest such increase since of this beginning of this data in 1999.
Does the red for the Russell 2000 tell us something about the duration of this rally?
The small-cap Russell 2000 fell today by 1.29% at the close. All the other major indexes were up: the Standard & Poor; 500 gained 0.18%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.10%; the NASDAQ Composite tacked on 0.30%; and the NASDAQ 100 climbed 0.37%. I find this “interesting.” That’s “interesting” as in “watch out” and not “interesting” as in “I’m buying this rally.”
Are financial markets getting interest rates wrong again?
The financial markets continue to swing from extreme to extreme in sentiment. The markets were wrong at the beginning of last week. It’s likely the markets are wrong again.
Saturday Night Quarterback says, For the week ahead expect…
Nothing this week from new House Speaker Mike Johnson suggests that Congress will act in time to prevent a U.S. government shutdown on November 17.
The small-cap Russell 2000 is up 8.5% in a week–time to go short
On Monday, I will add to my short position in the small-cap Russell 2000 by buying more of the ProShares Short Russell 2000 ETF (RWM) for my Jubak Picks Portfolio. This buy will give me two positions in the ProShares Short Russell ETF. The first position, added to the portfolio on July 23, 2023 is up 0.08% as of the close on November 3. Why go all in on shorting the Russell now?
All it took was a weak jobs report and stocks are off to the races
The U.S. economy added “only” 150,000 jobs in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced this morning, November 3. Economists had projected that the economy would add 180,000 jobs for the month. The unemployment rate climbed slightly to 3.9% from 3.8%, And the government statisticians revised September’s shocking 336,000 job increase the month down to 297,000 and revisions to the August and September totals took 101,000 jobs out of the totals for those to months. The Wall Street conclusion: The Fed has done its job and the economy has slowed.
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