Mid Term
July 28, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Senate Democrats and Republicans on Wednesday appeared to clinch a deal that would invest roughly $1 trillion into the nation’s infrastructure. The new agreement — announced separately by two of its lead negotiators, Senators Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), ends the wrangling over the policy specifics in a bipartisan infrastructure deal outlined back in June. The agreement puts the Senate on track to hold a key procedural vote today, July 28, that would allow the chamber to actually begin debating the contents of the infrastructure measure
July 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) coronavirus vaccine has been linked to a rare side effect, the immune system disorder Guillain-Barré syndrome. Of 12.8 million J&J doses administered in the United States, there have been about 100 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, according to preliminary reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Food and Drug Administration plans to add a warning about Guillain-Barré to the J&J vaccine, The Washington Post has reported.
May 31, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, Special Reports |
Today’s installment includes one hedge (on the ViX) and one stock pick (Lam Research.) Now if you’ve been following along with the logic that I’ve laid out in this Special Report, you know that stocks face months of potential volatility around the Fed’s June 16 meeting (What will the Fed say about ending its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases?), the August global central bankers confab in Jackson Hole (Will the Fed use the occasion, as it has done in the past, to indicate a coming change in interest rate policy?), the Fed’s September 22 meeting (Will the Fed be content to say nothing with the next “important” meeting not until December?) and then the central bank’s December 15 meeting.) That’s a large number of occasions that could set the stock market to worrying again. And then, of course, there’s OPEC and the price of oil, the battle over the recently announced Biden budget, the continued logjam on infrastructure spending, and fact that the pandemic is still running at full speed in countries such as India (and who knows what the return of cold weather and forced winter “togetherness” will do to infection rates in the developed economies of the northern hemisphere.) At 16.74 on the VIX, you don’t need a panic to produce a profit on higher volatility. The VIX was at 22.18 on May 19. And then there are the even higher VIX levels of 27.59 on May 12, 28.57 on Marcy 4, and 28.89 on February 25.
May 27, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, TSM |
Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a chip and taking delivery, increased to 17 weeks in April, indicating users are getting more desperate to secure supply, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That is the longest wait since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.
May 26, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Yesterday, May 26, a Dutch court ordered Royal Dutch Shell (RDS) to cut its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with 2019 levels in a case brought by climate activist groups. The Hague District Court ruled that the Anglo-Dutch energy company has a duty to care about reducing greenhouse gas emissions and that its current reduction plans were not concrete enough. If that language sounds like the court is declaring a company has a fiduciary duty (to future generations? to current populations? to the earth?) to reduce emissions, you’re not mistaken.
May 25, 2021 | AMAT, Daily JAM, MGM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, NXPI, Special Reports |
2021 will be a very different year from 2020. Or to be more exact the second half of 2021 and 2022 will be very different. We’re looking at going from a financial market where investors and traders believed the Federal Reserve was on their side with cash and more cash to push the prices of financial assets higher and then higher some more to a market where everyone is asking when will the Fed take th punch bowl away and shut down the party.Let me be clear. At this point it’s not the certainty that the Fed will reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond buying in this exact month or that, or the certainty that the Fed will start raising interest rates before the end of 2022, say, but rather the worry that those events are on the calendar, that they will change the trend in the market, and that no one can predict when the turn will materialize.FDR said “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.” To which the market right now says “Exactly.” Look at this “fear and worry calendar” that I’ve put together. And today I’ve got 3 picks and one hedge for this market
April 30, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
The value of all domestically produced goods and services has almost recovered to the pre-pandemic high recorded by the fourth quarter of 2019 of an inflation adjusted annualized $19.3 trillion but the U.S. stock market has raced well ahead of that recovery. The Standard and Poor’s 500 is up 29.3% from the end of 2019 to the close on April 29.
April 29, 2021 | AAPL, Daily JAM, Mid Term, Morning Briefing, You Might Have Missed |
After the close yesterday, April 29, Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), a key Apple supplier and a maker of radio frequency chips for smartphones and WiFi networking equipment, reported earnings of $2.37 a share on sales of $1.17 billion for quarter that closed on April 2 2021. That beat–slightly–Wall Street projections for earnings of $2.35 a share and sales of $1.15 billion. Year over year Skyworks earnings climbed 77% and sales rose by 53%. And what happened to the stock in after-hours trading? It got punished. Shares dropped to $183.37, a loss of $14.49 a share from the day’s close at $197.86. That’s a loss of 7.32%. In a market driven by expectations for constantly higher growth, I think you can see the problem.
April 16, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
China’s Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s gross domestic product climbed 18.3% in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2020. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected 18.5% year over year growth.
April 15, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term |
Retail sales rose a stunning 9.8% in March from February’s pace, the Commerce Department reported today, April 15. In the earlier month retail sales fell 2.7%.
April 12, 2021 | Daily JAM, Dip-O-Meter, Mid Term, PYPL, RUN, TDOC, Volatility |
Looking at the recent performance numbers on the 20 stocks I’m tracking in my Dip-O-Meter as of the close on Friday April 9, I have to conclude that for most of these stocks it’s time to take a pause on any “buy on the dip” opportunities. What I’m seeing in this sample is a general weakening of the upward bounce on rally days from these stocks–and without a strong bounce on a good day there’s not much reason to buy on the dip.
April 10, 2021 | Daily JAM, Mid Term, You Might Have Missed |
The week ahead could well bring even less volatility and even more complacency as we move into what everyone expects to be a stellar earnings season–at least in comparison to the first quarter of 2020
