In this New Market you need stocks like the 10 picks in my New Edge Portfolio to supplement the 10 solid winners of the New Core Portfolio with which I kicked off the first part of this Special Report: 10 stock picks for a New Core Portfolio for New Market. And watch out for Part 3 coming this week
To get to my 10 picks for my Special Report: A New Core Portfolio for a New Market, let me start with the second half of that title, the new market part. Why do I think we’re headed into a new market–and what kind of stock is this new market likely to reward with gains? And then onto my 10 picks for a New Core Portfolio.
Take a look at Peloton Interactive (PTON) and Netflix (NFLX) just in case you need a reminder of one of the essential characteristics of this stock market. One that makes it so hard to tell where the market as a whole is going, and what individual stocks are headed up or down (and often down big time.) What growth rate should an investor use in trying to value the stock? Who knows? Which is exactly the point and not a problem limited to Peloton in this economy. I’ve found a handful of stocks with reliable internal growth stories that make them great buy-on-the-dip candidates for over performance in the second half of 2022. I’m making three of those stocks–Apple (AAPL), Disney (DIS), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)–my last 3 picks for my Special Report
In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.
If you worry about what worries me right now, I know what you want to know. When will the selling stop? When will it be a good time to buy “bargains”? And What stocks should you buy when you begin to buy? Those are the three questions that I’ll answer in this Special Report. Along with listing my first three buys on this selling.
I’m starting my Special Report on “5 new economies that will shape the future” with the Battery Economy because 1) it’s important on its own, and 2) it has the power to reshape so much of the macro economy. And that last “because” makes the “Battery Economy” an ideal example of what these 5 new “little” economies are all about and why they’re so important to the future growth of your portfolio.
Tolstoy was wrong when he wrote at the beginning of Anna Karenina that “All happy stock markets are alike; each unhappy market is unhappy in its own way.” (That’s what it says in the original Russian, I swear.) Truth is that all happy stock markets are different.
There are the long rallies from valuation bottoms that come after a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis and the Great Recession. There are the sharp quick explosive moves higher that come after the passing of a panic with less damage than expected like that after the Pandemic meltdown in the spring of 2020. And, among all the other happy markets, there are the market melt ups that come after a long bull market has already driven valuations to nose-bleed levels. Sometimes that melt up turns out to be the final blow out stage that comes before a big correction–but not always. And sometimes the melt up just drives stocks to a high where they stagnate while fundamentals catch up with prices. I believe we’re in the midst of a market melt up now. In this Special Report I’m going to outline the ways in which this “happy” market is different; give you advice on how to adapt this rally to your portfolio goals; and finally give you 10 picks for profiting from this melt-up.
Yes, we want to buy on the dip. Whenever we get a significant dip. (And significant to me is 5% or more in the major indexes–and 10% or more in specific sectors.) But, we need new strategies for buying on the dip that take into account the market’s valuation problem, the central bank tightening that looks to be in the cards, and the real possibility of a dip in growth below forecasts in 2022. I’ve got fouir strategies to suggest for buying in this market on these dips. And 14 picks to use to execute those strategies.
You know how a savings account works, right? You deposit money in a bank. The bank uses your deposit to make a loan. Out of its profits, the bank pays you interest. That interest payment is a pittance today. 0.5% if you’re very, very lucky. But the national average is just 0.06%. What I’m calling “savings account stocks” work the same way that a bank savings account does. (Share prices do fluctuate but in the long run I’d argue that these stocks are as safe as a bank savings account.) And they pay an annual return that’s 10X–or much, much more–higher–than the paltry 0.5% now offered by the highest yielding savings accounts. How do these stocks work and why are they so much better than bank savings accounts? You–investors–give the company capital by buying newly issued shares or company bonds. The company invests that cash in making widgets or apps or whatever. And the company returns the bulk of the profits from those investments to the owners of its stock in the form of dividends, stock buybacks, and the appreciation in share price that results from the growth of the company’s business over time. I’m posting the first of my 10 Greatest “Savings Account Stocks” today and my Special Report will name a total of 10 great “savings account stocks” in posts over the next week. Today’s Greatest Savings Account Stock Pick: Microsoft (MSFT). The average annual return on Microsoft shares has been 28% over the last 10 years. Beats that 0.5% on a savings account, no?
This COMPLETE version consolidates all the 3 parts, 3 buckets and seven picks posted serially for this Special Report
Today I’m going to give you some picks and some rules for finding more candidates for the middle bucket, the 5-year bucket. In terms of the mechanics of a three-bucket income investment system, this middle bucket is critical since it the mechanism for turning the price appreciation of the long-term bucket into the cash income of the short term bucket. And it has to accomplish this task without taking on inordinate amounts of risk since a five-year holding period doesn’t allow a lot of time to recover losses from mistake.
