Well, optimistic analysts just weren’t optimistic enough about Nvidia’s (NVDA) fourth quarter 2023 earnings. The company reported adjusted earnings of $5.16 per share on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $4.60 a share and revenue of $20.4 billion.
After yesterday’s earnings report–the company beat Wall Street estimates for the quarter–and radically lower guidance for next quarter and the rest of 2024–total billings for next quarter will grow by just 2% to 4% and revenue for all of 2024 will grow by just 15% to 16% from 2023–shares of Palo Alto Networks (PANW) took a big hit right between the eyes. The stock fell 28.44% at the close and lost $104.12 a share to $261.97. What do I recommend? I’d say “buy” with a couple of caveats. Why buy?
I expect the market reaction to Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, to be released after the close on Wednesday, February 21, to tell investors a lot about the short-term direction of this stock market. We’re likely to learn more, however, from the reaction to an Nvidia beat rather than from an earnings miss.
Can you hear the barkers yelling to the crowd? It’s Wall Street analysts rushing to raise their target prices for Nvidia (NVDA) ahead of next week’s quarterly earnings report. On February 21, after the close, Nvidia is expected to report earnings of $4.18 share, up from $0.65 a share in the quarter a year ago, on revenue of $20.5 billion. And even though the stock is up 47% for 2024 as of the February 15 close and up 219% for the last year, Wall Street analysts are rushing to increase their target price on the shares.
My 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #5: Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY).
Technically, the Vestas Wind Systems ADR (VWDRY) isn’t a penny stock. By the strict definition, a penny stock sells for $5 or less and the Vestas ADR closed on $9.06 today, February 14. But I included Vestas in my previous penny stock list back on July 11, 2022, even though the stock closed at $7.80 that day. With the company reporting a return to profitability for 2023 in its fourth quarter earnings report released today, I think Vestas has (finally) turned the corner. And, frankly, I just don’t want drop it from this list just as things get good again for the company and its investors. (Vestas is a member of my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio. The position is up 65.6% since initiation on March 4, 2019.) Tomorrow, February 15, I’ll also add Vestas to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
This one is very simple. When the price of lithium rebounds, high-quality low-cost lithium producers will see the revenue roll in. That’s why I’d got the world’s leading lithium-producer Albemarle (ALB) in my long-term 50 Stock Portfolio. But a smaller, high-quality, low-cost producer like Australia’s Pilbara Minerals will show gains even higher than Albemarle since the current price of $2.29 a share comes close to discounting the company’s survival.
Today’s video is Microsoft Shows Priced to Perfection Risks. This quarter, the company reported Tuesday, Azure, its cloud services flagship, grew revenue by 30% last year. While a 30% growth rate would be a great for many companies, Wall Street and analysts were disappointed in this news from Microsoft. This is the “priced to perfection” problem. Although the company beat earnings estimates, beat revenue estimates, and showed 30% growth in a key part of the company, the stock went down. Maybe a $3 trillion market cap on Microsoft is a lot of weight to push up hill. We could see more of this during this earnings season as Amazon, Apple and Meta release their own reports. The “Magnificent Seven” that were responsible for most of the 24% gain in the S&P in 2023 are beginning to wobble. My hope was for more market leaders to emerge but that doesn’t seem to be happening. I don’t expect “wobble” to cause anything that terrible in the market, but a sideways move is likely as investors ponder their next move.
It is perhaps too early to draw meaningful conclusions, but Microsoft’s failure to jump in after-hours trading on better than expected earnings sure seems like more evidence that this is a market priced to perfection.
After the close yesterday, Visa (V) reported earnings of $2.41 a share (after adjusting for one-time items) for the December 2023 quarter. (That the company’s fiscal first quarter.) Analysts had been looking for $2.34 a share in adjusted earnings. Revenue grew 8.8% to $8.63 billion, again beating analyst forecasts for $8.55 billion in revenue. Visa said payments volume grew 8%, and that its processed transactions rose 9% in the period. And yet the stock was down $4.70 a share, or 1.72%, to $267.91 at the close today, Friday, January 26. Why?
Shares of ASML Holding (ASML) closed up 8.85% today after the company reported record orders for its chip-making equipment in the fourth quarter. ASML sales grew 12.5% year-over-year. And orders more than tripled from the third-quarter. I added shares of ASML Holding to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio on December 12, 2023. The position is up 17.6% since then as of the close on January 24.
Shares in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) were up almost 10% yesterday after the company announced an unexpectedly strong return to growth. That has in turn pushed chip stocks higher across the sector. For example, shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), which were already moving higher this week ahead of the news, hit a new record high today. The good news from semiconductor companies and the moves on their stock have also rallied the general market.
Today I posted my 319th YouTube video: Quick Pick Visa. And I’ll be adding the stock to another of my portfolios.
