Top 50 Stocks
July 25, 2023 | Daily JAM, DHR, Jubak Picks, Long Term, Top 50 Stocks |
The comparisons with 2022 continue to hurt shares of Danaher (DHR). For the second quarter, reported yesterday, the company saw revenue down 8% and adjusted earnings per share off 26% year over year. The culprit is easy to see. But I continue to hold Danaher in my Jubak Picks Portfolio where the position, initiated on June 20, 2017, was up 198.3% as of the close on July 25. Tomorrow July 26, I’ll be adding these shares to my long-term 50 Stocks portfolio. Danaher is one way to play the growth of the drug sector and the need of these companies for pure water.
July 13, 2023 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Videos, Volatility |
Today’s Quick Pick is Nvidia (NVDA)–Hold Through Earnings on August 23. Nvidia reports late in this quarter’s earnings season, and this report is expected to be very good. Wall Street’s expectations range from a low of 75 cents a share to a high of $1.75 but the consensus is $1.66 a share, up from 32 cents last year. Nvidia has been reporting 30% positive surprises in recent quarters, so there’s a good chance the results may be even better than expected. My suggestion is to hold the stock through this report in August, and then think about selling. I know, I know. Sell Nvidia!? That’s crazy! Here’s the thing. At some point, Nvidia’s growth rate is going to start to slow. When it does, people will look at the stock and decide the slower growth rate may not
July 7, 2023 | Daily JAM, Millennial, SEDG, Top 50 Stocks |
This breakthrough in solar power isn’t enough to stop global warming by itself, but it sure is enough to upend the entire energy sector within the next five years. Multiple research groups (and “multiple’ is important here because it means there’s more likelihood that the lab results will hold up to scrutiny. Two groups published the details of their efficiency breakthroughs in the journal Science on Thursday, and at least two others are known to have pushed well beyond 30%.) have reported a breakthrough that will push the efficiency with which solar cells convert sunlight to electricity through the 30% level that has been thought to mark the maximum conversion of sunlight to electricity.
June 26, 2023 | ADBE, Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Adobe’s recent earnings report and guidance leave investors, at least those of us still paying any attention at all to valuation, in a bit of a quandary. Do we sell Adobe on that lackluster forecast for earnings and revenue growth over the next two quarters (and what looks like a stretch, very stretched valuation) or do we hold on with the hope that the market continues its love affair with everything AI?
June 23, 2023 | ALB, Daily JAM, LAC, Mid Term, Millennial, PILBF, Top 50 Stocks |
Spot lithium carbonate prices (for battery-grade lithium) in China are up 92% from a 19-month low in April. So now what?
June 20, 2023 | Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
I made Zimmer Biomet (ZBH) Pick #6 in my “10 Stocks for Your Core Portfolio.” Tomorrow, June 21, I’ll add it to my long-term 50 Stocks Portfolio.
June 14, 2023 | ADBE, ALB, AMAT, CMI, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, GOOG, JCI, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, SCCO, Top 50 Stocks |
I think a well-constructed portfolio should resemble an onion. (Yes, to continue the analogy, it may make you cry in the short term, but the end result after cooking time is yummy.) At the center of that onion is a core built of stocks with extremely high, risk-adjusted potential rates of return. These stocks won’t deliver the kind of huge gains you can reap from investing in a risky bet–if everything turns out right for that company and its stock. But neither are they likely to crash and burn because something goes wrong at the company. These core portfolio stocks will drop if the market as a whole heads south, but they will drop less and recover faster. These aren’t buy-and-forget, or hold-forever stocks. They can soar to unreasonable valuations at times and an active investor should take profits at some point of overvaluation. (I did a YouTube video recently (you can find it on any of my sites) on when to sell a very overvalued Nvidia, for example.) And they can trade at big discounts to fair value (which is, of course, when the steely-eyed among us will buy) because management has made a mistake or between the industry in which they do business is slumping, or because the market for the company’s goods and services has taken an unexpected direction. At that point, you’ll need to consider selling or adding to your positions depending on your analysis of how long the damage might last and how bad it is. But the point of this core to your stock portfolio is that these are companies that will deliver index-beating results with relatively small risks. Which will enable you, the investor, to plan how to achieve your financial goals with relatively less worry and uncertainty. So, without further ado, here’s my list of 10 stocks for a core portfolio–with the very important “whys” for each pick.
June 3, 2023 | Daily JAM, Long Term, Millennial, PANW, Top 50 Stocks |
Shares of Palo Alto Networks (PANW) rose by 5.59% in after-hours trading on Friday. The reason? News that the stock will be added to the Standard & Poor’s 500 index before the market open on June 20. Managers of portfolios that follow the index have to buy shares of Palo Alto to keep up with the change. The move to membership in the index increases ownership of the shares just as the stock is exhibiting extraordinary upward momentum. Shares of the cyber-security company are up 55.68% for 2023 to date as of the close on Friday, June 2, and up 22.81% in the last month. That performance rests on a record of high sustained growth. It’s the “sustained” part that I think the market finds so valuable right now.
June 1, 2023 | AMAT, AMD, CVS, Daily JAM, Dividend Income, EMR, GOOG, ILMN, Jubak Picks, Long Term, MSFT, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, TSM, Volatility |
Artificial intelligence really is a paradigm-breaking, transformative technology. Right now, investors are so enthusiastic about the sector, especially the obvious leader Nvidia (NVDA), that we’re looking at a potential bubble that will collapse with much gnashing of teeth and I-told-you-so “wisdom” casting doubt on the reality of the entire endeavor. I think a bubble is indeed possible. Nvidia did trade at a trailing twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio of 196 on May 31, after all. But I think you do want to own the sector now–because the breaking of the bubble, if it does break is, in my opinion, two quarters or more away. And you want to own the sector for the long run–say, 10 years or more–because it is such a game changer for so much of the economy. But what to own? I’ve put together a list of the 10 stocks that I think are the best way to participate in the AI gold rush.
May 24, 2023 | Daily JAM, NVDA, Top 50 Stocks, Volatility |
Nvidia (NVDA) shares were up 19.68% at 4:45 p.m. New York time today, May 24, after the company reported beating analyst estimates on earnings and revenue. The company also told analysts to expect second-quarter revenue way, way above pre-announcement projections. For the three-month period ending April 30, Nvidia earned $1.09 per share, excluding one-time items, as revenue came in at $7.19 billion. Analysts were looking for the company to report earnings of 92 cents a share and $6.28 billion in revenue.
May 18, 2023 | Daily JAM, GOOG, Top 50 Stocks, Videos |
Today’s Quick Pick is Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG), better known as Google. Morningstar calculates Google is trading at a 24% discount right now. Recently, the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day moving average, showing momentum in the stock. There’s a perception that the stock had been unfairly pounded by AI hysteria because people believed Google wasn’t keeping up with Microsoft and its search business would suffer. Google did, however, come out with its own chatbot products and maintained some relatively slow growth. While ad revenue was down about 1% in the first quarter, total revenue was up about 2.6% year over year. The slowdown in the economy as a whole gave the impression that Google’s ads were slipping. I mentioned in yesterday’s video, we’re seeing a lot of Hedge Fund managers adding to their Google positions in the first quarter. I own the stock in my long-term portfolio and will likely add to my position. In the next year or two the stock will likely make up the difference between the current price of 120 and the Morningstar fair value of 154. You could consider this a value play.
May 11, 2023 | Daily JAM, Top 50 Stocks |
Today’s Quick Pick is Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), a lithium producer. Lithium demand continues to rise with electric vehicles and rechargeable batteries finding expanding and new markets. Lithium producers have had a difficult time meeting demand–and projections say the demand gap is going to expand– and the price of Lithium has shot up. However, Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (NYSE: SQM), and Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB), two Chilean lithium producers, took a hit recently due to political risks. Chile’s president, Gabriel Boric announced a plan on April 22 to nationalize the country’s lithium resources, sending the lithium stocks plunging. However, investors may have overlooked some key points in the announcement: the country will honor existing leases (SQM’s leases expire in 2030, and Albemarle’s leases expire in 2043) and this plan still has to be passed by the Chilean legislature. Recent votes have favored the right in Chile and Boric’s party may not have the votes (or inclination) in the current legislature to pass this proposal. A right-wing government would likely be unhappy with the idea of nationalizing a previously private sector. (Chile’s lithium resources already belong to the state with these companies holding time-limited production leases.) Right now, with Albemarle’s longer lease and changing Chilean politics, this is a good time to get in on Albemarle and its expanding lithium production from mines in Australia and the United States. (Only 30% of its revenue comes from Chile.)
