Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a smaller than expected first quarter loss today and shares rose strongly after the company said a strong rebound in summer traffic would turn results positive in the second quarter. As of noon New York time Delta shares were up 4.51%. The airline lost $1.23 a share, slightly less than the Wall Street consensus of a $1.27 a share loss
As of noon New York time today, April 12, the Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.47% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 0.34%. The NASDAQ Composite was higher by 0.73% and the NASDAQ 100 had moved up by 0.67%. The small cap Russell 2000 had tacked on 1.49%. And then by the close stocks had given up all these gains and more. For the day, the S&P 500 closed down 0.34% and the Dow was off 0.26%. The NASDAQ Composite ended lower by 0.30% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 0.36%. The small cap Russell 2000 managed to close up 0.33% on the day.
Just want to make sure that no one missed the sell recommendations in yesterday’s Saturday Night Quarterback post. Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
As of 3 p.m. New York time Monday, April 11, airline stocks were rallying strongly ahead of Delta Air Lines (DAL) earnings report Wednesday morning. Delta shares were up 4.68%. Shares of American Airlines (AAL) had gained 3.04%. And United Airlines Holdings (UAL) was ahead 1.72%.
Big banks will kick off another earnings season beginning with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Wednesday, April 13. Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) follow on April 14. Bank of America (BAC) reports on April 18. Bank earnings forecasts present a complicated picture for the quarter–which is only appropriate since that’s true of Standard & Poor’s 500 earnings forecasts as a whole.
Pfizer (PFE) will buy privately held respiratory syncytial virus drug maker ReViral for up to $525 million. Wall Street liked the deal–the stock was up 4.33% today, April 7–because it fits with Pfizer’s RNA virus program, which produced a successful vaccine for Covid-19.
I think these financial market curves will let you map out the longer stories of Federal Reserve interest rate increases and a potential recession–and then chart the shorter stories of war in the Ukraine, global oil and natural gas crunches, summer Pandemic relief, global food crisis, computer chip shortages (and whatever else you think might be important) under those longer curves. That will let you decide when to buy and sell (and what) in order to profit from short-term stories while preparing your portfolio for the longer arcs.
Tomorrow I will add shares of Walmart (WMT) to my Jubak Picks Portfolio. The stock is one of the 12 “Recession Picks” in my current Special Report: A Recession is Coming–Three Portfolio Strategies for a Recession; and 12 Recession Stock Picks. Right now I think Walmart’s stock has three things going for it. And only one of those is explicitly linked to a recession, which makes it a great recession stock
This week’s Quick Pick is a utilities ETF, XLU. Utilities are a good place to turn to for the next few months before we hit a full recession slowdown. This ETF has a lot going for it, including a strong upward trend, a low expense ratio, and a good yield. As utility companies continue to invest in capacity, they are allowed to increase their rate base, which means revenue will keep going up. I own this ETF in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio on JubakAM.com, where it’s been up 43% since 2018.
A couple of days doesn’t a trend make, but the trading action in European wind stocks has caught my eye in the last week or so. Yesterday, Wednesday, March 30, wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems (VWDRY) gained 5.80%. That took the stock to a gain of 4.60% in the past week. The stock is down 2.26% for 2022 to date as of the March 30 close. Wind developer Orsted (DNNGY) was up 3.27% to bring its gain in the last week to 7.71%. The stock is down 3.88% for 2022 to date. With Europe looking to reduce its reliance on imports of Russian natural gas, increasing the region’s wind power capacity is one solution.
Tesla (TSLA) announced today that it will ask shareholders for permission to split its stock. No news yet on what the ratio of the split will be, but on the news shares of Tesla were up 8.03% at the close today, March 28, to $1,091.84.That split comes on the heels of splits from Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG). Which leads me to conclude that it’s time to buy shares of Costco Warehouse (COST).
Don’t sell those oil stocks yet! Back at the beginning of the year, I anticipated that coming conflict between Russia and the Ukraine would drive up the price of oil, and the stocks I added to my portfoliohene stocks (COP, EQNR, LNG) have all been up big. But, I don’t think it’s time to sell yet. Why? Summer. Summer is the big driving season in the Northern Hemisphere, and right now (in what’s called the “shoulder season”) reserves of gasoline are supposed to be replenished in anticipation of summer. But that’s not happening due to Russia-Ukraine, and I think with summer we will see prices for oil spike even higher. That’s why I wouldn’t sell these stocks yet. (And that’s despite of the selling today, March 28, on more lockdowns in China)
