Last night after the close of trading, IBM (IBM) reported earnings (excluding one-time items) of $3.35 a share for the December quarter. Analysts were looking for $3.23. Gross margin was 56.9%, beating the 56.1% analysts expected. Which leads to the important question of whether BIG TECH earnings and revenue reports, due in the next week, will stabilize stock prices/
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninety-first YouTube video “QuickPick: FXI China ETF” went up today.
On Saturday, January 15, in my “Saturday Night Quarterback” post wrote that conflict (a more comprehensive term than “war) between Russia and Ukraine remained a low probability event–but that the probability wasn’t zero and the the odds of conflict had increased in the past month. What’s happened since then? The odds of conflict have climbed
The CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) is up another 8.87% today to 27.83 on another drop in stocks and continued worry about the effect of looming Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Today I’m going to sell the February 16 VIX Call Options with a strike of 20 (VIX220216C00020000) that I bought on December 31, 2021 in my Volatility Portfolio. I bought those Call Options for $380 a contract and I’m selling today, January 21 with those options trading at $710 a contract as of 2:45 New York time. That’s a gain of 86.8% on this position in roughly four weeks.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My ninetieth YouTube video “3 Picks on Tech Stock Guidance” went up today.
In the first section of this Special Report: When will the selling stop? When to buy What to buy” posted back on January 11, I said that I’d look to buy in tiers. And thus stagger my buying to take account of any earnings season selling and any volatility around the Fed’s January 26 meeting. In the first tier, I said, back on January 11, I said I’d look for former momentum and earnings growth favorites, especially in the technology sector, that had taken big hits in the selling from the November 19 high. The three first tier buys were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and and the first three buys back on January 11 were Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, and Adobe (ADBE). I said I’d name my second tier picks after bank earnings. Which means today.
This morning big money center banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Citigroup (C) delivered disappointing reports on fourth quarter revenue and earnings. Shares of JPMorgan Chase finished the day down 6.15%. Citigroup shares closed lower by 1.25%. But Wells Fargo (WFC) crushed earnings estimates for its fourth quarter. The stock gained 3.68% by the close.
Copper prices rose 3.54% on the London Metals Exchange today to $10,064 a metric ton. And that looks like just the beginning of a classic commodity run based on supply shortages in the copper industry and increases in demand from growth in electric cars and renewable energy technologies. Inventories at the London Metals Exchange now sit at multi-year lows. Goldman Sachs recently increased its forecast for copper to $12,000 a metric ton and sees a 20% upside for copper in 2022. Bank of America recently put a $20,000 price target on copper by 2025. Today, January 12, copper stocks were on the march.
Illumina jumped almost 17% on January 11 on higher guidance for 2022. Here’s what that tells us about this market and its growth fears. (And why I will continue to hold Illumina shares)
Wells Fargo (WFC) is scheduled to report fourth quarter 2021 earnings on Friday, January 14. The bank is expected to be one of the few big money center banks to show a significant increase in earnings for the lat quarter of 2021 from the fourth quarter of 2020 (when numbers were elevated by a big recovery from the Pandemic bottom.) The Wall Street consensus projects fourth quarter earnings of $1.09 a share, up from 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter of 2020. (I’d note that the bank has delivered a positive earnings surprise above analyst projections in the last 4 quarters.) This is a good time to buy bank stocks.
I’m starting up my videos on JubakAM.com again–this time using YouTube as a platform. My eighty-fourth YouTube video “3 Picks for When the Tech Selling Stops” went up today.
When I bought shares of Apple (AAPL) in my Jubak Picks and Volatility Portfolios, I was looking for gains from the end of the year rally (which kind of fizzed out) and the traditional Santa Claus rally (which came through as expected) to drive shares higher in the short term. Since that November 23, 2021 pick, shares of Apple, as of the close today January 4, were up 12% to $179.70, just above my $179 target price for this short-term trade.
