January 11, 2025
What You Need to Know Today:
CPI inflation creeps higher in November
Inflation remains stubborn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% annual rate in November, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. That was hotter than a 2.6% rise in October. But that matched economists forecasts. It was also above September’s 2.4% annual rate. On a monthly basis, inflation increased 0.3% from October to November, the biggest gain since April. Prices for housing, energy, and particularly food all rose.
CPI core inflation, prices excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose another 0.3% for the fourth straight month. The are rate was up 3.3% for the year. For the past six months, core inflation has been stuck at an elevated level above the Fed’s target of 2%.
Climb in yield on 2-year Treasury says bond market is rethinking rate-cut trajectory
Two-year Treasury yields have climbed 34 basis points since the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates on September 18 for the first time since 2020. Rising yields “reflect the reduced probability of recession risks,” Steven Zeng, an interest rate strategist at Deutsche Bank told Bloomberg. “Data has come in pretty strong. The Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts.” We’ve read this story before
Making West Pharmaceutical Pick #5 in my Special Report 10 New Ideas for an Old Rally
Here’s what I wrote today when I added this stock to my Special Report.
What’s an AI search company startup worth? How about $9 billion? Or maybe $157 billion?
Perplexity AI, an artificial intelligence company building a search product to compete with Google search, is in early talks to raise private-round venture capital at a valuation of about $9 billion, Bloomberg reports.
Pick #4 in my Special Report 10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally–AAL
Today I added American Airlines Group as Pick #4 in my Special Report 10 New Stock Ideas for an Old Rally. Here’s what I wrote.
Saturday Night Quarterback (on a Sunday) says, For the week ahead expect…
Amazon’s (AMZN) earnings report on Thursday, October 24, will start the Big Tech Earnings Parade off with a bang. Wall Street analysts are expecting the company to report earnings of $1.14 a share for the third quarter. That would be up from 85 cents a share in the third quarter of 2023. That would be a 34% jump in year over year earnings. Which would certainly be a great lead in to earnings from Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) the following week.
Special Report It’s a New World for Dividend Income Investors Pick #5 Visa
Bookkeeping. I added Visa as Pick #5 for my New World of Dividend Investors Special Report (You can find it in the Special Report section of this site along with all the content on this market and its trends for Dividend Income investors. But I’m reposting it as a stand alone pick so no one misses it.
Live Market Report (20 minute delay)
Good but disappointing news on CPI inflation for January
Headline, all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell again in January, but not by as much as economists had projected before this morning’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In January prices rose at 3.1% year-over-year. That’s a slower increase than the 3.4% annual rate notched in December. But economist had projected that inflation would dip to a 2.9% annual rate. And stocks dropped on the disappointment.
Part 3 Worries Over a Top: OK, it’s not 2000, but that doesn’t mean there’s no risk in this market
When I wrote my post “Was the Meta Platform 20% pop the market top? An important sign, yes,, but not for the reasons you think” I wasn’t thinking of a three-part series. But then came Part 2 “Why his isn’t 2000–I don’t see a replay of the Dot-Com Bear Market.”
And now Part 3: “OK, It’s not 2000, but that doesn’t mean there’s no risk in the market.” Part 3 in this series is going to segue right into the new Special Report that I’ll post on Wednesday with seven concrete steps I think you should implement now to protect your portfolio. But for today, I’m going to focus on a framework for thinking thinking about reward and risk in the current market. Think of the topic as “Why your portfolio needs protection now–even if we aren’t looking at a Bear Market.”
Please Watch My New YouTube video: Hot Button Moves Now! Short regional banks
I’m adding a bit more timeliness to this weekly video slot by moving away from my Trend of the Week series and changing it to “Hot Button Moves NOW” to highlight action you can take now.. Today’s Hot Button Moves NOW video is: Put Options on the S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). This is a play on continued trouble in the regional banking sector. New York Community Bank has just been downgraded to junk by Moody’s, (due to its real estate loan portfolio) and has dropped by 60%, taking the regional bank sector along with it. Last Monday I bought puts for April 24 at 14 strike price for $2.09 each and the put price has gone through the February 7 date when I recorded this video. I don’t think this is the end of regional bank trouble so I’ll be holding on to these puts until the bad news subsides. This is a good way to take advantage of some of these dips in the market and hedge risks. For more options and volatility stocks, subscribe to JubakAM.com.
Tick…tick…tick: Look at all the real estate debt that will mature in 2024
Nearly 20% of outstanding debt on US commercial and multifamily real estate-— $929 billion–will mature this year, requiring refinancing or property sales, Bloomberg reported today. The volume of loans coming due has swelled 40% from an earlier estimate by the Mortgage Bankers Association of $659 billion, a surge attributed to loan extensions and other delays rather than new transactions. About $4.7 trillion of debt from all sources is backed by U.S. commercial real estate. An estimated $85.8 billion of debt on commercial property was considered distressed at the end of 2023, MSCI Real Assets reported, citing an additional $234.6 billion of potential distress.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
I expect another downward move for inflation when the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) is reported on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that the core consumer price index, which excludes move volatile food and fuel prices, will show a year over year rate of increase of 3.7% in January. That would be the slowest year-over-year increase since April 2021.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #4 NLLSF
I’m playing catch up on this Special Report. I’ve got picks #5, #6, and #7 almost ready to post. My 10 Penny Stock Homeruns Pick #4: Nel (NLLSF).
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Quick Pick CVS
Today’s Quick Pick is CVS Health (CVS). CVS owns a unique combination of healthcare delivery channels. Drugstores, yes–9,000 of them. But the company also owns health insurance company, Aetna, and Caremark, the largest pharmacy benefit manager. And recently it moved into the primary care marketplace through its acquisition of Oak Street. The company reported earnings on Wednesday, February 7, and the stock was up about 3.25% after that. While the earnings were good, (they beat by $0.13) the guidance is what is important here. The company projected higher costs for 2024 and cut guidance for GAAP earnings ($7.06) and adjusted earnings ($8.30). The reason the stock went up despite these cuts is that everyone was expecting DEEPER cuts to guidance. CVS has been signaling for weeks that rising costs in 2024 could be painful for the healthcare sector as a whole, and the relatively minor cuts in guidance led to a rally in the stock. Morningstar calculates a fair value for CVS Health of $103 a share. The stock closed at $76.32 on February 9. The stock also pays a 2.36% dividend. The stock is a member of my Dividend Portfolio. That position is up 31.25% since October 28, 2020.
Part 2 Worries over a top: Why this isn’t 2000–I don’t see a replay of the Dot-Com Bear Market
As I wrote a few days ago in my post “Was the Meta Platform 20% pop the market top? An important sign, yes,, but not for the reasons you think” I do think this stock market rally is putting in a top.
But I’m not worried that we’re looking at a reply of the Dot-Com crash and Bear Market that took the NASDAQ Composite down 40% in 2000 after that tech-heavy index gained more than 85% in 1999.
Why not? Let me count the ways. I get to four.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: A Battle Between Fear and Greed (and hear me sing too)
Today’s video is A Battle Between Fear and Greed. As the S&P gets closer to 5,000, we clearly see the battle between fear and greed. With the market breaking records on the high end, there’s a fear that it’ll crash, and that it has to go down eventually. However, the greed side is a fear of missing out on this rally that started in September as well as a likely market boost from a rate cut in May. So how do you play this mix? My thought is to go with the greed side for now, but not be too greedy. Be aware that investors aren’t likely to get out of stocks in a big way until they see the projected gains from a Fed rate cut. At worst the market may move sideways until then, and some consolidation in the market leaders would be good, so I wouldn’t do much selling just yet.
Replacing South Korea with India in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio (and adding it to Jubak Picks Portfolio too)
I try not to argue with cash flows. Especially when I’m making asset allocation decisions. And right now global cash is heading for India. A number of reasons. Portfolio managers looking for diversification need emerging markets exposure and India looks like the best bet. Going long India is, in effect going short China since much of the new India money is essentially old China money fleeing what looks like an economy set to struggle for a while. And there is an India fundamental story based on an economy headed for 7% growth. For all these reasons I’m added the Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) to both my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio as rep
If you’re an investor looking for something to worry about in 2024, think China
The news pointing to serious trouble in China’s economy–the kind that can’t be fixed by replacing market regulators in Beijing–keeps on coming. If you’re looking for “something” that could upset the global apple cart in 2004, keep your eye on China. The country’s market is big enough to matter for just about every company doing business internationally, and China is a key market for companies ranging from Tesla and Apple to Starbucks and Yum Brands. So the news today from the National Bureau of Statistics showing another big drop in consume prices–in this case not good news on inflation but a signal of sluggish domestic demand–worries me.
The surge in the U.S. debt couldn’t be coming at a worse time
The United States is on a pace to add nearly $19 trillion to its national debt over the next decade, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office released today, Wednesday, February 7. The budget office projected that the annual deficit will grow to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from $1.6 trillion this year, adding $18.9 trillion to the national debt during the decade. By then, the debt is projected to surpass $54 trillion.
Part 1 Worries over a top: Was the Meta Platforms 20% pop the market top? An important sign, yes,, but not for the reasons you think
I think we’re seeing stocks put in a top. Not immediate–I think we’ve got the impending Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to help stretch out this rally into a sideways move. But the signs are there. And the most important signs aren’t the “overvaluation” of the Magnificent 7 stocks or the narrow leadership in this market. (More on why this top isn’t likely to lead to a Bear Market in tomorrow’s post “Why this isn’t 1999.) Nope. To me the most important sign if the big announcement from Meta Platforms (META) of a $50 billion stock buy back and the initiation of 50 cents a share dividend, the company’s first.
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: How Long Does FOMO Drive This Market?
Today’s Trend of the Week is How Long Does FOMO Drive this Market? FOMO is “fear of missing out” and I’m using it to describe a market that is not driven by facts and fundamentals, but is largely focused on a fear of missing out on another rally, as many did in 2023. So what is the emotional trend and how long will it last? My sense is that there is one factor determining behind a lot of FOMO is expectations for a rate cut from the Fed. A potential rate cut could bring a lot more money into the market and drive prices higher– something investors don’t want to miss. In my opinion, we’ll have to wait until May or Jun for that cut to happen. So the hope of a cut will keep the market moving sideways and limit selling on high valuations. We’ll see some consolidation in the market leaders, but nothing that is likely to upend the market before these highly anticipated rate cuts.
Here we are again: 10-year Treasury yields back at 4.16%, up 14 basis points this morning
Maybe you can’t remember when the yield on the benchark 10-year Treasury fell through 4% and looked headed to 3.5%. It might be hard to remember because it was so long ago. Like two weeks. Today the yield on the 10-year Treasury completed a round trip, rising 14 basis points this morning to 4.16%.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs–Pick #3 GWH
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs Pick #3 ESS Tech (GWH). The stock of this maker of iron flow, utility scale, long-draw-down batteries ticks all the boxes for my Penny Stock Home Runs.
Saturday Night Quarterback says (on a Sunday), For the week ahead expect…
I expect a relatively boring, week. With no fireworks from the Federal Reserve. Almost no economic data. No jobs surprises. And no earnings news from the Magnificent Sever stocks. Just old fashioned block and tackling to see if any other stocks can join the Momentum Parade.
Special Report: 10 Penny Stock Home Runs–Pick #2 PILBF
This one is very simple. When the price of lithium rebounds, high-quality low-cost lithium producers will see the revenue roll in. That’s why I’d got the world’s leading lithium-producer Albemarle (ALB) in my long-term 50 Stock Portfolio. But a smaller, high-quality, low-cost producer like Australia’s Pilbara Minerals will show gains even higher than Albemarle since the current price of $2.29 a share comes close to discounting the company’s survival.
New York Community won’t be the last bank to get into trouble; adding Puts on next bank crisis
Nothing like a bank surprise to get Wall Street in a lather. On Wednesday, January 31, New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) announced that it would cut its dividend and add to reserves against losses in its commercial lending portfolio. The stock fell 38% on Wednesday to hit a 23-year low on Thursday. The bad news wasn’t limited to U.S. banks either.Tokyo-based Aozora plunged more than 20% after warning of US commercial-property losses Frankfurt’s Deutsche Bank more than quadrupled its provisions against U.S real estate losses. I don’t see any reason to think that this is a one-day phenomenon. Or that the damage is just a minor problem in a few portfolios. Billionaire investor Barry Sternlicht warned this week that the office market is headed for more than $1 trillion in losses. “This is a huge issue that the market has to reckon with,” Harold Bordwin, a principal at Keen-Summit Capital Partners in New York, which specializes in renegotiating distressed properties, told Bloomberg. “Banks’ balance sheets aren’t accounting for the fact that there’s lots of real estate on there that’s not going to pay off at maturity.” On Monday then, I’m adding Put Options on the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE).
Please Watch My New YouTube Video: Pick of the Week HAS
Today’s Quick Pick is Hasbro (HAS). This stock isn’t terribly exciting or groundbreaking. There’s no big new tech connected to this pick. Hasbro makes toys and traditional toys are considered a declining industry. The stock is indeed ,60% off of its 2019 high. This is not a growth stock, but it is a reliable, high yield, dividend stock. Cash flow from toy sales is consistent enough to keep the 5.5-6% coming Sales may be flat this year but licensing with brands like My Little Pony and Transformers keep the company’s toys top of mind with kids and in the media. Hasbro is one of three major toy brands that make up 40% of the traditional U.S. toy market and 30% of the global market. The industry may not be exciting, but the high dividend yield makes this worth a look. I’ll be adding this to my Jubak Picks Dividend Portfolio next week.
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